Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday brings a full 15-game MLB slate with all 30 teams in action and no doubleheaders.
Miami's game against the Cubs produced today's two best scores: Kyle Stowers and Heriberto Hernández both grade Elite off a Shota Imanaga start the model already flags as vulnerable, with a third Marlin, Griffin Conine, also cracking the board against the same pitcher. The Brewers-Reds game is the deeper story, though. Eight total hitters make today's top 30 out of that one matchup, with both Milwaukee's Rhett Lowder and Cincinnati's Shane Drohan flagged as exploitable starters.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Friday, September 4.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Kyle Stowers Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Stowers grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.3% probability and +349 fair odds — the top score on Friday's slate.
He's carrying elite exit velocity and barrel numbers into a start the model has flagged as genuinely vulnerable, not just a name attached to a scary ERA. That combination of a hot hitter and a soft opposing arm is as clean a read as the board offers today.
+471 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 3.1 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +349 (22.3%)Best Available Odds: +471 at Kalshi
2. Jake Bauers Home Run Prop vs. Rhett Lowder
Bauers grades Elite at 7.6, with a 21.9% probability and +357 fair odds.
His true power output is real, he's got a changeup edge against Lowder specifically, and Great American's warm-air forecast is adding carry on top of an already-favorable park for home runs. The market has already moved on this one, though.
+333 at Prophet X falls 2.5 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +357 (21.9%)Best Available Odds: +333 at Prophet X
3. Heriberto Hernández Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Hernández grades Elite at 7.3, with a 21.3% probability and +370 fair odds.
He's the second Miami bat benefiting from the same vulnerable Imanaga start as Stowers above — elite barrel rate, real power output, and a matchup the model trusts enough to grade both hitters Elite in the same game.
+405 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 0.3 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +370 (21.3%)Best Available Odds: +405 at Polymarket
4. Jackson Chourio Home Run Prop vs. Rhett Lowder
Chourio grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20.1% probability and +398 fair odds.
He's the headliner of Milwaukee's crowded night against Cincinnati — a real fastball edge, elite bat speed, and the same ballpark and weather assist working for his teammate Bauers above.
+411 at Kalshi falls 2.0 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +398 (20.1%)Best Available Odds: +411 at Kalshi
5. Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Prop vs. Daniel Lynch
Okamoto grades Strong at 6.7, with a 19.8% probability and +406 fair odds.
He's on a rising 30-day trend with a real changeup edge against Lynch, and the model flags Kansas City's starter as vulnerable on top of it. The market has already priced most of that in.
+363 at Kalshi falls 3.5 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +406 (19.8%)Best Available Odds: +363 at Kalshi
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Stowers and Hernández already clear that bar above. Here are the best values elsewhere on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Flores Jr. | vs. LAA | 5.8 | +700 at Caesars | +4.3 pts |
| Matt McLain | vs. MIL | 5.9 | +617 at Prophet X | +2.7 pts |
| Gabriel Moreno | vs. HOU | 5.7 | +614 at Novig | +2.6 pts |
| Mickey Gasper | vs. BAL | 6.1 | +567 at Novig | +2.3 pts |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | vs. LAA | 5.6 | +575 at Hard Rock | +1.2 pts |
| Tyler Stephenson | vs. MIL | 6.3 | +525 at Novig | +1.0 pts |
Rafael Flores Jr. owns the largest raw gap on the board. His score is modest, but Pittsburgh's rookie is getting a real cutter edge against Ryan Johnson, and +700 at Caesars is a long way past what the model thinks is fair.
Matt McLain and Tyler Stephenson give the Reds a second and third angle in that same crowded Milwaukee-Cincinnati game, while Gabriel Moreno adds an Arizona bat with real value against Houston's Cristian Javier. Mickey Gasper and Esmerlyn Valdez round out the board with smaller but still real edges in two more games.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Brewers at Reds (Rhett Lowder and Shane Drohan)
This is the deepest game on the board — eight hitters between the two lineups make today's top 30. Bauers, Chourio and William Contreras carry Milwaukee's attack against Lowder, while Elly De La Cruz, Stephenson, McLain and Sal Stewart give Cincinnati just as much coming back the other way against Drohan. Both starters are flagged vulnerable, which is why this game shows up on both sides of the ledger rather than just one.
Diamondbacks at Astros (Merrill Kelly and Cristian Javier)
Arizona gets three total qualifiers against a vulnerable Javier — James McCann, Gabriel Moreno and Tim Tawa — while Houston's Yordan Alvarez and Nelson Velázquez both grade Strong-to-Lean against Kelly on the other side. A market has already moved hard against Alvarez specifically, with the best price 10 full points shy of the model's number.
Cardinals at Rockies (Ryan Feltner)
Jordan Walker and Joshua Báez both grade in the same Lean-to-Strong range against Feltner, with Coors Field's premium home run environment doing quiet work underneath both numbers.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Kyle Stowers to hit a home run at +471 at Kalshi is my favorite bet on Friday's slate.
This is the case where the model's top overall score and a real market edge point the same direction. Imanaga is a legitimately flagged vulnerable starter tonight, not a name carrying an inflated line off a couple of bad outings, and the price still sits 3.1 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair. When the top of the board and the value column agree that cleanly, it's worth paying attention to.
Rafael Flores Jr. offers a similar edge at a much longer price for bettors who'd rather chase raw expected value than model conviction.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET at CLE (Gm 1) | 2:10 p.m. | Keider Montero vs. Logan Allen | Projected |
| MIL at CIN | 6:10 p.m. | Shane Drohan vs. Rhett Lowder | Projected |
| ATL at PHI | 6:40 p.m. | Chris Sale vs. Cristopher Sánchez | Projected |
| LAA at PIT | 6:45 p.m. | Ryan Johnson vs. Jared Jones | Projected |
| BOS at BAL | 7:05 p.m. | Ranger Suárez vs. Shane Baz | Projected |
| CHC at MIA | 7:10 p.m. | Shota Imanaga vs. Janson Junk | Projected |
| SF at NYM | 7:10 p.m. | Matt Wilkinson vs. Nolan McLean | Projected |
| DET at CLE (Gm 2) | 7:15 p.m. | Andrew Sears vs. Foster Griffin | Projected |
| MIN at CWS | 7:40 p.m. | Zebby Matthews vs. Erick Fedde | Projected |
| TB at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Nick Martinez vs. Trevor Williams | Projected |
| AZ at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Merrill Kelly vs. Cristian Javier | Projected |
| TOR at KC | 8:10 p.m. | Jameson Taillon vs. Daniel Lynch | Projected |
| STL at COL | 8:40 p.m. | Andre Pallante vs. Ryan Feltner | Projected |
| NYY at SD | 9:40 p.m. | Max Fried vs. Walker Buehler | Projected |
| ATH at SEA | 10:10 p.m. | Brady Basso vs. Logan Gilbert | Projected |
| WSH at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Jackson Kent vs. Blake Snell | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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