Looking for the best home run props today? It's the lightest slate of the week, with 10 teams in action, including one double-header.
Only one lineup is official as of this writing: the early half of that Cardinals-Reds doubleheader, first pitch at 1:40 PM ET, just under an hour away. Everything else on tonight's board is running on our best projected read on batting order, not a confirmed card. Most of these games don't get going until after 6 PM ET, so there's plenty of time left for lineups to post.
Here's where our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is pointing for Monday, August 17. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 17, 2026)
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
Top score on the board, and it's not close — 8.5, 24.3%, fair +312. Ohtani's barreling 13.8% of his batted balls and averaging 93.2 mph off the bat over the past month, real thump, not a hot week. Sugano leans on his sinker 19% of the time, and it's the pitch Ohtani does the most damage against — better than a point above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting hit hard all year. His one real soft spot is the cutter, which shows up about 11% of the time. Add in Coors Field, and this is as clean a power matchup as the board offers tonight.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +312 (23.8% probability)
2. Max Muncy (LAD) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
Second Dodger in the top two. 8.2, 23.5%, fair +325. Muncy's barreling 15.4% of his batted balls and averaging 91.8 mph off the bat over the past month. Sugano's cutter is only 11% of his mix, but it's Muncy's best matchup pitch by a wide margin — 3.5 points of damage above his own baseline, the single biggest pitch-specific edge in today's top five. The counter: he's struggled against the four-seam, which Sugano throws a fifth of the time.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +325 (22.7% probability)
3. Austin Riley (ATL) vs. Bailey Ober (MIN)
Riley heads up Atlanta's stack against Ober tonight. 7.9, 22.9%, fair +338. He's barreling 23.3% of his batted balls and averaging 95.4 mph off the bat over the past month, and he's squaring it up even more lately. Ober goes to his four-seam about 32% of the time, and it's the pitch Riley punishes hardest — 3.6 points above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting hit hard. The counter: he's struggled against the slider, which shows up about 17% of the time.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +338 (22.8% probability)
4. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Luis Castillo (CWS)
Rounds out the top five in the day's other loaded game. 7.5, 21.8%, fair +360. Suzuki's power grades out about league average — 14.7% barrel rate, 87.9 mph average — but the matchup is doing real work: Castillo throws his four-seam 44% of the time, and Suzuki's doing 2.4 points more damage against it than his own baseline, against a version of the pitch that's been getting barreled up all year.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +360 (21.8% probability)
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, not a guess: it compares each hitter's real fair odds tonight against his "usual" RotoBombs price — what he'd price at on talent alone, with tonight's specific pitcher, park, and weather stripped back out to neutral. A big gap means tonight's matchup is doing real work to shorten his price versus what he'd normally get.
Every one of today's top five clears the tool's actual +EV threshold — no exceptions in the top tier tonight. But the widest gaps on the whole board belong to the rest of the Dodgers' lineup, further down the order:
- Tommy Edman: usual price +788 → +434 tonight, the single widest gap on the slate.
- Teoscar Hernández: usual +747 → +421 tonight.
- Kyle Tucker: usual +798 → +505 tonight.
- Hunter Feduccia: usual +670 → +381 tonight.
- Mookie Betts: usual +682 → +408 tonight.
So... the Dodgers. Every single hitter in LA's lineup clears the +EV bar tonight against Sugano at Coors Field, all nine bats, the most lopsided team-wide matchup we've flagged in weeks.
One notable name that does NOT clear the bar: Matt Olson. He's Elite tier (7.2, +376) and part of Atlanta's stack against Ober, but his gap is only 132 points, the smallest of anyone in that lineup — he's simply an elite hitter regardless of matchup, so tonight's context adds less relative lift for him than it does for the rest of Atlanta's order.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The rest of Atlanta's stack vs. Bailey Ober (ATL @ MIN, Target Field) — Brewer Hicklen grades Strong (7.0, +386) and Ronald Acuña Jr. grades Strong (7.0, +388), both riding the same changeup edge carrying Riley into the top five. All nine Braves bats show real edge against Ober tonight.
- The Cubs' other pair vs. Luis Castillo (CWS @ CHC, Wrigley Field) — Pete Crow-Armstrong grades Strong (6.8, +398) and Michael Conforto grades Strong (6.6, +410), both on the same four-seam edge carrying Suzuki into the top five.
- The White Sox's answer in the same game — Munetaka Murakami grades Strong (7.1, +384) and Miguel Vargas grades Strong (6.6, +413) against Cubs lefty Shota Imanaga — real edge on both sides of the same ballgame tonight.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Shohei Ohtani today. The Dodgers' lineup is the story of the night — nine bats clearing our own +EV bar against one pitcher is about as lopsided as this model gets — but Ohtani's the best process on the board even inside that group: top overall grade, real four-seam-and-sinker matchup, and unlike a lot of names on tonight's unconfirmed slate, his spot at the top of LA's order isn't in real question no matter when the official card drops. Coors Field is the cherry on top.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ CIN (Game 1) | 1:40 PM | Quinn Mathews vs. Kent Emanuel | Confirmed |
| BAL @ TB | 6:05 PM | Brandon Young vs. Shane McClanahan | Projected |
| STL @ CIN (Game 2) | 6:40 PM | Andre Pallante vs. Rhett Lowder | Projected |
| MIA @ PHI | 6:40 PM | Janson Junk vs. Cristopher Sánchez | Projected |
| DET @ PIT | 7:05 PM | Framber Valdez vs. Carmen Mlodzinski | Projected |
| AZ @ BOS | 7:10 PM | Mitch Bratt vs. Alec Gamboa | Projected |
| SD @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Walker Buehler vs. Nolan McLean | Projected |
| ATH @ KC | 7:40 PM | Mason Barnett vs. Michael Wacha | Projected |
| ATL @ MIN | 7:40 PM | Martín Pérez vs. Bailey Ober | Projected |
| CWS @ CHC | 8:05 PM | Luis Castillo vs. Shota Imanaga | Projected |
| LAD @ COL | 8:40 PM | Blake Snell vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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