Looking for the best home run predictions today?
Use our data-driven betting tool to find the best home run props for Monday, August 24. Our tool helped a user turn $5 into over $3,000 on Friday. Here's where our MLB home run picks model, RotoBombs, is pointing today.
Scroll to the bottom of the page if you want to use the tool and research your best home run bets.
Home Run Predictions Today (August 24, 2026)
Here are today's top home run picks, straight off the model's power ranking.
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Merrill Kelly (AZ)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.8
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +343
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +343 (twinning)
Crow-Armstrong is the everyday leadoff and leading MVP candidate for the Cubs. He's been barreling 18.3% of his batted balls and averaging 91.1 mph off the bat over the past month — more than enough thump to clear a fence. Kelly goes to his four-seamer about 28% of the time, and that's the exact pitch Crow-Armstrong punishes most, roughly 1.7 points above his own damage baseline. Chase Field plays up for his swing, and Arizona's bullpen is on today's tired list below. The counter: he's struggled against the sinker, which shows up about 10% of the time.
2. Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs. Kumar Rocker (TEX)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.6
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +356
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +476
Vargas is confirmed batting third for the White Sox. He's been barreling 15% of his batted balls and averaging 92.2 mph off the bat over the past month. Rocker goes to his sinker about 30% of the time, and that's the pitch Vargas punishes most — and Rocker's been hit hard of late on top of it. Rate Field plays up for his swing. The counter: he's struggled against the slider, which shows up about 38% of the time. Elite tier, Medium confidence.
3. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Kumar Rocker (TEX)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.1
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +382
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +323
Murakami is confirmed batting second for the White Sox, in the same game as Vargas above. Damage is the default when he connects — 22.4% barrels and 94.4 mph average exit velo over the past month, even with a quieter last couple weeks. Rocker's slider is his most-hit pitch, and hitters in general have been teeing off on Rocker lately. Rate Field plays up for his swing too. The counter: he's struggled against the sinker, which shows up about 30% of the time. Elite tier, Medium confidence.
4. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.5
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +382
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +280
Schwarber is confirmed batting leadoff as Philadelphia's DH. He's the kind of hitter park factors barely matter for — 13.4% barrels, 91.9 mph average exit velo over the past month. Gilbert's splitter, his best matchup pitch, shows up about 14% of the time. The counter: he's struggled against the four-seamer, which is 39% of Gilbert's mix. Strong tier, Medium confidence.
5. Corbin Carroll (AZ) vs. Kevin Gausman (CHC)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.2
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +438
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +464
Carroll is confirmed batting second for Arizona. There's legitimate thump in his profile — 12.2% barrels, 92.6 mph average exit velo over the past month, though contact has cooled some recently. Gausman's slider is Carroll's best matchup pitch, and Gausman has been giving up loud contact lately. Chase Field plays up for his swing. The counter: he's struggled against the splitter, which shows up about 39% of the time. Lean tier, Medium confidence.
Today's Home Run Picks with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Buddy Kennedy (SF) | Sportsbooks +488 → RotoBombs +352
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN) | Sportsbooks +1440 → RotoBombs +744
- Brock Rodden (SEA)| Sportsbooks +1050 → RotoBombs +573
- Brian Navarreto (MIA) | Sportsbooks +1350 → RotoBombs +755
- Zac Veen (COL) | Sportsbooks +900 → RotoBombs +537
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Robbie Ray (SD) — confirmed batting sixth for Pittsburgh, with an eye-popping 42.9% barrel rate and 95.1 mph average exit velo over the past month, the loudest power profile in this whole piece.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs. Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) — confirmed batting leadoff for San Diego, in the same game as Cruz above. A 95.9 mph average exit velo, his best contact stretch of the year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) vs. José Urquidy (CWS) — confirmed batting second for Texas. Urquidy's changeup, 30% of his mix, is Seager's best matchup pitch.
- Jake Burger (TEX) vs. José Urquidy (CWS) — confirmed batting seventh in the same Rangers lineup as Seager, with the same changeup edge against a pitcher who's been hit hard lately.
- Jose Siri (LAA) vs. Parker Messick (CLE) — confirmed batting fifth for the Angels. A 19.4% barrel rate over the past month with the recent trend still climbing.
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL) — confirmed batting second for Washington. Feltner's fastball is Ortiz's best matchup pitch, and Nationals Park plays up for his swing.
Pitch Hunters Today: Who's Sitting on the Pitcher's Best Pitch
New filter this week. Pitch Hunters is the tool's term for a batter with strong data against a pitcher's single most-used pitch — specifically, that pitch has to make up 40% or more of the pitcher's mix. It's a different question than "who has the best matchup overall" — this is about a hitter who's built to feast on the one pitch he's guaranteed to see the most.
- Kaelen Culpepper (MIN) vs. Jeffrey Springs — confirmed in the Twins' lineup. Springs' four-seamer is 44% of his mix, and Culpepper does damage on it roughly 4.9 points above his own baseline, the widest edge of anyone on this list.
- Rafael Devers (SF) vs. Chase Burns — confirmed batting second for the Giants. Burns leans on his four-seamer a massive 56% of the time, and it's Devers' best matchup pitch by a real margin.
- Junior Caminero (TB) vs. Framber Valdez — confirmed batting third for the Rays. Valdez's sinker is 45% of his arsenal, and it's exactly what Caminero punishes most.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) vs. Jeffrey Springs — confirmed in the Twins' lineup, in the same game as Culpepper above. Same 44%-usage four-seamer, a real edge for Lee too.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) vs. Framber Valdez — confirmed batting second for the Rays, in the same game as Caminero above. Valdez's sinker shows up 45% of the time, and it's Aranda's favorite pitch to do damage against.
Zone Mix Today: Where Contact, Pitch Selection and Power Overlap
Also new this week. Zone Mix blends three things at once: where a hitter's batted balls tend to land, which pitches the opposing pitcher actually throws, and how much power the hitter shows specifically in the zones that pitch mix funnels into. It's the filter for finding a matchup where the geometry of the at-bat — not just raw power or a single best pitch — is doing real work.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Zack Wheeler — confirmed batting fifth for Seattle. Wheeler's four-seamer, 35% of his mix, is exactly the pitch and the zone Raleigh has been running hot against.
- Tim Tawa (AZ) vs. Kevin Gausman — confirmed batting seventh for Arizona. Gausman's splitter is a heavy 39% of his mix, and Tawa's zone profile lines up well against it.
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) vs. Parker Messick — confirmed batting third for the Angels. Messick's four-seamer at 39% usage overlaps with a zone where Grissom does real damage.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Merrill Kelly — confirmed batting second for the Cubs, in the same game as Crow-Armstrong above. Kelly's fastball and Suzuki's power zone line up cleanly.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) vs. Ryan Feltner — confirmed batting cleanup for Washington. Feltner's sinker sits in a zone Lile has shown real pop against, even on modest overall power.
Tired Bullpens Today
Bullpen workload is now folded straight into the matchup math, and three teams stand out today: every batter facing their bullpen shows a fatigue flag, with these three pens having thrown the heaviest relief workloads over their last two games on the entire slate.
- Arizona — roughly 190 relief pitches over its last two games. Cubs hitters get the tailwind here if Kevin Gausman doesn't finish the Diamondbacks off — Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki and Bregman all appear above.
- Oakland — roughly 186 relief pitches over its last two games. Twins hitters inherit the edge behind Jeffrey Springs — Culpepper and Brooks Lee (both above in Pitch Hunters) benefit most.
- Chicago White Sox — roughly 213 relief pitches over its last two games, the heaviest workload on the board. Rangers bats behind Kumar Rocker get the same look.
None of the other seven bullpens on tonight's slate carry that flag, so treat this as a real, specific edge in these three games rather than a blanket "tired bullpen" story across the board.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm betting onMiguel Vargas to homer today. He's got the third-widest +EV gap on the whole board today — 136 points between today's fair odds and his usual baseline — and the AI Scouting Report's read on the matchup is exactly the kind of leverage I want to bet on: Rocker goes to his sinker three times out of ten, that's the pitch Vargas does his most damage against, and Rocker himself has been hit hard his last few times out. That's leverage stacked on both sides of the matchup, not just raw power, and it's why he's my favorite home run pick today.
Want more of this? RotoWire All-Access gets you the full lineup optimizer and matchup tools behind everything above, every single day of the season.
Use Our MLB Home Run Props Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DET | 6:40 PM | Drew Rasmussen vs. Framber Valdez | Confirmed |
| BOS @ MIA | 6:40 PM | Ranger Suárez vs. Sandy Alcantara | Confirmed |
| COL @ WSH | 6:45 PM | Ryan Feltner vs. Cade Cavalli | Confirmed |
| TEX @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Kumar Rocker vs. José Urquidy | Confirmed |
| CLE @ LAA | 9:38 PM | Parker Messick vs. George Klassen | Confirmed |
| MIN @ ATH | 9:40 PM | Zebby Matthews vs. Jeffrey Springs | Confirmed |
| PHI @ SEA | 9:40 PM | Zack Wheeler vs. Logan Gilbert | Confirmed |
| PIT @ SD | 9:40 PM | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Robbie Ray | Confirmed |
| CHC @ AZ | 9:45 PM | Kevin Gausman vs. Merrill Kelly | Confirmed |
| CIN @ SF | 9:45 PM | Chase Burns vs. Carson Whisenhunt | Confirmed |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
It's important to remember to gamble responsibly. Our model provides home run predictions — not guarantees. RotoWire, along with the sportsbooks referenced in this article, are committed to promoting safe and responsible gambling. If you have any questions or concerns about your ability to gamble responsibly, please consider reaching out to the National Council for Problem Gambling (NCPG) or the International Center for Responsible Gaming (ICRG). Both organizations are dedicated to providing support and advocacy for individuals who may need it.
Must be 21+ and present in an eligible state to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Terms and conditions apply. See each sportsbook for full offer details.
