Looking for the best home run props today? Monday is a lighter 11-game slate, with first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET in Philadelphia and running through a 10:05 p.m. West Coast nightcap in Sacramento.
Every lineup remains projected as of this run as official lineups aren't out yet for today's card. Confirm each hitter is starting before placing any home run bets.
It's a quieter board than usual by top-end scores — only one hitter clears our Elite tier — but Kazuma Okamoto's grade in Sacramento stands well clear of the rest of the field, and the Dodgers-Reds game in the late window carries real value underneath its two Strong-tier names.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Monday, September 7.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Kazuma Okamoto Home Run Prop vs. Jacob Lopez
Okamoto grades Elite at 7.6, with a 22.1% probability and +352 fair odds — the clear top score on Monday's slate and the only Elite grade of the day.
He's riding a rising 30-day trend with elite barrel numbers and a real slider edge against Lopez, and the model already flags the Athletics' starter as vulnerable. The market has largely caught up, though.
+363 at Kalshi falls 2.0 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +352 (22.1%)Best Available Odds: +363 at Kalshi
2. Kody Clemens Home Run Prop vs. Troy Melton
Clemens grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20.0% probability and +399 fair odds.
Elite exit velocity and barrel rate carry this one, backed by a real fastball edge against Melton and a rising 30-day trend on top of it. Detroit's rookie is already flagged as a vulnerable arm tonight.
+491 at DraftKings clears the model's threshold by 1.7 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +399 (20.0%)Best Available Odds: +491 at DraftKings
3. Max Muncy Home Run Prop vs. Chase Burns
Muncy grades Strong at 6.7, with a 19.7% probability and +408 fair odds.
He's leaning heavily on a fastball edge against Burns, and Oracle Park's warm-air forecast tonight is adding roughly 20 feet of carry on top of it — an unusual weather assist for a park not typically known as a home run haven. Cincinnati's bullpen is already gassed behind Burns if this one goes long.
+456 at Novig falls 0.3 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — essentially a fair price.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +408 (19.7%)Best Available Odds: +456 at Novig
4. Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run Prop vs. Jesus Luzardo
Acuña grades Strong at 6.4, with a 19.0% probability and +425 fair odds.
Elite exit velocity and bat speed are the foundation, with a real sweeper edge against Luzardo and Citizens Bank Park's premium home-run environment underneath. A recent cooling trend in his own contact is the one thing to watch.
+547 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 2.4 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +425 (19.0%)Best Available Odds: +547 at Kalshi
5. Jackson Chourio Home Run Prop vs. Matthew Boyd
Chourio grades Lean at 6.1, with an 18.3% probability and +446 fair odds.
He's got a real fastball edge against Boyd, and the model flags both Chicago's bullpen and Boyd himself as exploitable tonight — a game with soft spots on both fronts. A recent cooling trend is the modest caution flag.
+507 at Kalshi falls 0.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — essentially a fair price.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +446 (18.3%)Best Available Odds: +507 at Kalshi
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Clemens and Acuña already clear that bar above. Here are the best values elsewhere on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Freeland | vs. CIN | 5.5 (Lean) | +870 at FanDuel | +5.3 pts |
| Jose Siri | vs. BOS | 5.0 (Pass) | +809 at Novig | +4.2 pts |
| Juan Brito | vs. LAD | 4.5 (Pass) | +852 at Novig | +3.8 pts |
| Austin Riley | vs. PHI | 6.0 (Lean) | +646 at Kalshi | +3.5 pts |
| Angel Martínez | vs. BAL | 5.4 (Lean) | +690 at DraftKings | +2.9 pts |
| Walker Jenkins | vs. DET | 4.2 (Pass) | +850 at Hard Rock | +2.6 pts |
Austin Riley owns the best combination of score and value on the board outside the top five — elite barrel rate and bat speed, a real sweeper edge, and a genuinely hot bat, all at a price 3.5 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair.
Alex Freeland gives the Dodgers a second angle in the same game as Muncy above, with the largest raw edge on today's board. Jose Siri and Juan Brito offer the longest prices for bettors chasing expected value over probability, while Angel Martínez adds a second Cleveland name against Baltimore's Trevor Rogers.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Guardians at Orioles (Trevor Rogers)
Rogers is doing the work here from the Cleveland side — both Jo Adell and Angel Martínez carry the model's "Gopher Pitch" flag against him, with Martínez the better value of the two. Pete Alonso still grades out fine on Baltimore's side in his own right, riding elite exit velocity and a real fastball edge.
Twins at Tigers (Troy Melton)
Clemens headlines above, but Riley Greene gives Detroit's own side a real angle back — elite barrel rate and a fastball edge of his own, even against his own team's flagged-vulnerable starter working the other direction.
Reds at Dodgers (Chase Burns and Emmet Sheehan)
Muncy and Freeland headline the Dodgers' side above, and Elly De La Cruz gives Cincinnati a real answer back — elite exit velocity, barrel rate and bat speed, with a genuine slider edge against Sheehan, even with the market not yet moving off a still-fair price.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Kody Clemens to hit a home run at +491 at DraftKings is my favorite bet on Monday's slate.
This is the case where the model's conviction and the market's price agree without much hedging required. Clemens carries real, elite-tier contact quality into a start already flagged as vulnerable, and the price still sits 1.7 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair — modest as edges go today, but attached to a legitimately strong score on a board that's short on both this Monday.
Alex Freeland offers a similar idea at a much longer price for bettors who'd rather chase raw expected value than model conviction.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at PHI | 1:05 p.m. | Grant Holmes vs. Jesús Luzardo | Projected |
| NYM at MIA | 1:10 p.m. | Jonah Tong vs. Eury Pérez | Projected |
| CLE at BAL | 1:35 p.m. | Joey Cantillo vs. Trevor Rogers | Projected |
| LAA at BOS | 1:35 p.m. | Grayson Rodriguez vs. Brayan Bello | Projected |
| AZ at KC | 2:10 p.m. | Jose Cabrera vs. Noah Cameron | Projected |
| CHC at MIL | 2:10 p.m. | Matthew Boyd vs. Robert Gasser | Projected |
| MIN at DET | 3:10 p.m. | Joe Ryan vs. Troy Melton | Projected |
| WSH at SD | 5:10 p.m. | Jake Irvin vs. Nick Pivetta | Projected |
| STL at SF | 8:10 p.m. | Michael McGreevy vs. Logan Webb | Projected |
| CIN at LAD | 9:10 p.m. | Chase Burns vs. Emmet Sheehan | Projected |
| TOR at ATH | 10:05 p.m. | Dylan Cease vs. Jacob Lopez | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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