Looking for the best home run bets today? We've got 15 games on tonight's slate, and our home run model predictions model, RotoBombs, nailed three of the model's top-five batters yesterday. One reader cashed a +1124 parlay on Jac Caglianone & Yordan Alvarez.
Only one game has a confirmed lineup this morning, so everyone else on the slate is still running on our best projected read on batting order, not a confirmed card, so treat today's board as directional until RotoWire's MLB Lineups page updates through the afternoon.
Here's where our home run predictions model is pointing for Saturday, August 15. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, edges against books, and try our tool yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 15, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it. Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at.
These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability. That doesn't mean they have the best value. We cover that later in the article.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Jake Bauers (MIL) vs. Justin Wrobleski (LAD)
- RotoBombs Grade: 9.6
- RotoBombs Probability: 27.1%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +270
The Statcast profile backs this projection up: 16.4% of his batted balls this year have left the bat at 110+ mph, his exit-velo ceiling is 109.8, and he's hot as of late. Bauers' power score is up from a .705 season baseline to .738 over his recent window. The matchup adds to it instead of just riding raw power: Wrobleski throws his four-seam 49% of the time, Bauers is doing 4.7 points more damage against that pitch than his own baseline, and Wrobleski's own four-seamer grades 11.2 points below average. Dodger Stadium's 107 park factor is the cherry on top.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +270 (27.1% probability)
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 9.5
- RotoBombs Probability: 26.7%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +275
PCA's power is actually surging again: .678 baseline up to .849 over his recent stretch, with an 111.5 exit-velo peak, tied for the hottest bat in this group. The real driver is McGreevy's changeup — 20% usage, and Crow-Armstrong's running 3.6 points of damage above his own baseline against it while McGreevy's own changeup grades 5.3 points hittable league-wide. His one soft spot: sinkers, where the matchup actually runs against him.
3. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) vs. Ian Seymour (TB)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.5
- RotoBombs Probability: 24.3%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +311
With only 52 batted-ball events this season, the model's pulling his baseline back toward league average rather than trusting it outright. Still, the recent trend is real: power score up from .627 to .780, 15.4% of his contact at 110+, a 111 max exit velo. Seymour's changeup is his most-used pitch at 31%, and Encarnacion-Strand's doing 6 points more damage against it than his own baseline — the single biggest pitch-specific edge in the top five — with the righty/lefty platoon split fully in his favor on top of it.
4. Coby Mayo (BAL) vs. Ian Seymour (TB)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.3
- RotoBombs Probability: 23.8%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +320
The second Oriole in the top four, and RotoBombs is targeting Seymour's changeup again at 31% usage. Mayo's matchup vs. that pitch is running 5.2 points of damage above his own baseline against it. His sample is more established than his teammate's, 184 batted-ball events on the year, with a 110.9 max exit velo and 12.5% of his contact at 110+.
5. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.0
- RotoBombs Probability: 23%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +336
Suzuki hits second behind Crow-Armstrong for the Cubs about as reliably as anyone in this lineup, but treat these two as one matchup working against McGreevy, not separate coin flips. His power score is the most modest of the five (.585 baseline, .609 recent), but 287 batted-ball events of season-long data back it up, and four of his six homers came off contact at 105+ mph -- that's real thump, not empty exit velo. Same changeup edge as Crow-Armstrong against McGreevy: 20% usage, 4.3 points above his own baseline.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +336 (23.0% probability)
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
If you're looking for value or longshot homers today, this is your section.
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, not a guess: it compares each hitter's real fair odds tonight against his "usual" RotoBombs price — what he'd price at on talent alone, with tonight's specific pitcher, park, and weather stripped back out to neutral. A big gap means tonight's matchup is doing real work to shorten his price versus what he'd normally get.
While the books tend to price star power hitters shorter than any projection's implied probability, they almost always have a longer than price RotoBombs +EV batters. Today, multiple +EV batters are also in the model's five favorites.
Every one of today's top five clears the tool's +EV threshold within RotoBombs, with shorter odds than the top sportsbooks' average odds.
Today is a really rare case where multiple +EV players double as top-five most likely to homer batters, so we expanded the list.
- Christian Franklin (BAL): +680 → +402
- Sportsbook Odds: +866
- EV:+92.4%
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL)
- Sportsbook Odds: +703
- EV:+71.9%
- Jake Bauers (MIL): +550 → +278
- Sportsbook Odds: +452
- EV: +46.0%
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL): +586 → +309
- Sportsbook Odds: +439
- EV: +31.8%
- Coby Mayo (BAL): +552 → +317
- Sportsbook Odds: +447
- EV: +31.2%
- Harry Ford (WAS): +755 → +409
- Sportsbook Odds: +560
- EV:+29.7%
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC): +565 → +316
- Sportsbook Odds: +430
- EV: +27.4%
- Michael Conforto (CHC): +648 → +397
- Sportsbook Odds: +490
- EV:+18.7%
One notable name that does NOT clear the +EV bar tonight: Jac Caglianone. His gap is only 106 points even though he's still a Strong-tier grade (+405) against Angels lefty Reid Detmers — the four-seam matchup is working against him tonight, offsetting the slider edge that's carrying his overall grade.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The Brewers' third bat vs. Justin Wrobleski (MIL @ LAD, Dodger Stadium) — Garrett Mitchell grades Elite (7.4, +367) on the same four-seam edge carrying Bauers and Chourio into the top five, even with a cooling-off flag attached.
- The Orioles' other two bats vs. Ian Seymour (BAL @ TB, Steinbrenner Field) — Pete Alonso grades Elite (7.5, +360) and Christian Franklin grades Strong (6.8, +402), both riding the same four-seam and changeup damage carrying Encarnacion-Strand and Mayo into the top five. Four Orioles bats total against one Rays arm tonight.
- The Cubs' pair vs. Michael McGreevy (STL @ CHC, Wrigley Field) — Seiya Suzuki grades Strong (7.0, +387) and Michael Conforto grades Strong (6.8, +397), both on the same changeup edge carrying Pete Crow-Armstrong into the top five.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Jake Bauers today. Milwaukee hasn't posted its lineup yet, so I'll flag that same caveat everyone else on this board carries — but his 9.4 is the single best grade RotoBombs has handed out all week, the four-seam edge against Wrobleski is real and well above his own baseline, and he clears the +EV bar by a wider raw margin than anyone else in the top five. That's the strongest process-level case on the board tonight, lineup confirmation or not.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.Get More Than Just Home Run Props Today
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS @ DET | 1:10 PM | Anthony Kay vs. Troy Melton | Confirmed |
| STL @ CHC | 2:20 PM | Michael McGreevy vs. Matthew Boyd | Projected |
| NYY @ TOR | 3:07 PM | Cam Schlittler vs. Braydon Fisher | Projected |
| COL @ SF | 4:05 PM | Michael Lorenzen vs. Logan Webb | Projected |
| WSH @ NYM | 4:10 PM | Brad Lord vs. Sean Manaea | Projected |
| BAL @ TB | 6:10 PM | Kyle Bradish vs. Ian Seymour | Projected |
| MIA @ CIN | 6:40 PM | Ryan Gusto vs. Brady Singer | Projected |
| SD @ CLE | 7:10 PM | TBD vs. Joey Cantillo | Projected |
| SEA @ HOU | 7:10 PM | Emerson Hancock vs. Hayden Wesneski | Projected |
| PHI @ MIN | 7:10 PM | Jesús Luzardo vs. Connor Prielipp | Projected |
| BOS @ PIT | 7:15 PM | Sonny Gray vs. Jared Jones | Projected |
| AZ @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Grant Holmes | Projected |
| MIL @ LAD | 7:15 PM | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Justin Wrobleski | Projected |
| KC @ LAA | 9:38 PM | Randy Dobnak vs. Reid Detmers | Projected |
| TEX @ ATH | 9:40 PM | MacKenzie Gore vs. J.T. Ginn | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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