Use our data-driven betting tool to find the best home run props for Saturday, August 22. We're back with a full slate of 15 games after quite a fun night.
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Best Home Run Props Today (August 22, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability — not a value or edge ranking. See the Best Edge section below for that.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Logan Henderson (MIL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.2
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +378
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +255
Olson is the model's top score today, and RotoWire's live Expected Lineup for Atlanta has him batting third, right where the power-ranking projection had him. He's been barreling 22.7% of his batted balls and averaging 92.5 mph off the bat over the past month — comfortably enough thump to clear a fence, and he's squaring the ball up even more lately.
Henderson leans on his four-seam about 46% of the time, and that's the exact pitch Olson does his best damage against, roughly 6.8 points above his own baseline. Hitters have been teeing off on Henderson his last few times out, too. The one real counter: Olson has struggled against the cutter, which shows up about 18% of the time in Henderson's mix.
2. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Jared Jones (PIT)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.0
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +385
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +237
Ohtani is confirmed batting leadoff as Los Angeles's DH tonight. He's been barreling 15% of his batted balls and averaging a genuinely elite 94 mph off the bat over the past month. Jones goes to his four-seam about 46% of the time, which is Ohtani's best matchup pitch, and hitters in general have been teeing off on Jones lately.
The counter: Ohtani's struggled against the slider, which shows up about 35% of the time in Jones's mix — worth knowing, since it's a meaningful chunk of what he'll see.
3. Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.8
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +398
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +335
Seager is locked into Texas's real lineup today, batting second. He's been barreling 15.4% of his batted balls and averaging 92.5 mph off the bat over the past month, and Johnson goes to his cutter about a third of the time — Seager's best matchup pitch, against a pitcher who's been hit hard of late across the board.
The counter is the sweeper, which shows up about 19% of the time and has given Seager trouble. Strong tier, Medium confidence, 20.1% tonight — and as you'll see below, this is the widest value gap of the top five.
4. Francisco Alvarez (NYM) vs. Luis Castillo (CWS)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +401
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +450
Alvarez is confirmed in the real Mets lineup today, catching and hitting seventh. He's been putting a charge into the ball — 15% barrel rate, 89.9 mph average exit velocity over the past month — and Castillo goes to his four-seam about 43% of the time, which happens to be Alvarez's best matchup pitch, even against a version of that pitch that's already been getting barreled by others.
Castillo's been hit hard across the board recently, which never hurts. The counter: Alvarez has struggled against the changeup, which shows up about 14% of the time.
5. Joc Pederson (TEX) vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +405
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +400
We are back to targeting the very vulnerable Johnson with a lefty platoon bat that's built to destroy a pitcher with his mix and vulnerabilities. Pederson has elite batted ball metrics, with only his barrel percentage (8.2%) grading below "good" or better.
Just missed the cut this time: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), who was in this slot on our earlier run this morning. His score (6.1 LEAN) and confidence (Low, since St. Louis still hasn't named a starter) both landed a notch below Olson's now-official profile, so he slides down to the pivots below rather than off the board entirely — he's still MLB's active home run leader and fully healthy.
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Hunter Feduccia (LAD): best odds +1080 (DK) → +454 per model
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN): best odds +1450 → +774 per model
- Jake Mangum (PIT): best odds +1460 → +817 per model
- Ezequiel Duran (TEX): best odds +960 → +527 per model
- Javier Sanoja (MIA): best odds +1220 → +695 per model
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Quinn Mathews (STL) — MLB's active home run leader, confirmed batting leadoff as DH tonight. The model itself ran this matchup as pitcher-neutral since St. Louis hadn't named a starter at the time, but RotoWire's live lineups now show it's Quinn Mathews, a lefty — a real platoon disadvantage for the left-handed Schwarber that the model's own Lean tier and Low confidence label already hint at, even without knowing the exact name. Worth sizing your confidence accordingly.
- Justin Foscue (TEX) vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA) — part of that Rangers stack mentioned above, and the single widest odds gap on the board today at 243 points. Real power signal is thinner here than his teammates', so this is more of a value lean than a top pick.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) vs. Tarik Skubal (LAD) — confirmed batting sixth for Pittsburgh. He's been barreling an eye-opening 33.3% of his batted balls over the past month, and Skubal's four-seam, his most-used pitch, is exactly what Cruz punishes best. The counter is the sinker, which has given him trouble.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH) — confirmed batting cleanup for Miami. A 17.9% barrel rate and 95.5 mph average exit velocity over the past month, and Irvin's four-seam — his most-used pitch — is Conine's best matchup, against a pitcher who's been hit hard lately.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) vs. Casey Mize (SD) — confirmed in Minnesota's lineup batting sixth. A genuinely strong month of contact (9.1% barrel rate, 90.8 mph average exit velocity), with Mize's slider — his best matchup pitch against Clemens — showing up about 27% of the time.
- Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) vs. Luis Castillo (CWS) — a third bat worth knowing about from that Mets-White Sox game alongside Alvarez above. Castillo's been hit hard recently, and Robert's power plays up against the four-seam specifically.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm betting onCorey Seager to homer today. He's got the widest value gap of the confirmed top five (194 points), he's locked into Texas's real batting order tonight at the No. 2 spot, and the underlying matchup — great recent contact quality against a cutter-heavy starter who's been getting hit hard — checks every box the model looks for. Matt Olson has the marginally bigger raw score and the same lineup certainty, and he's a very fair alternative. But when the biggest edge on the odds side and a confirmed lineup spot line up on the same player, that's the one I'm taking tonight.
Want more of this? RotoWire All-Access gets you the full lineup optimizer and matchup tools behind everything above, every single day of the season.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR @ NYY | 1:35 PM | Dylan Cease vs. Ryan Weathers | Projected |
| ATL @ MIL | 2:10 PM | Martín Pérez vs. Logan Henderson | Projected |
| WSH @ MIA | 4:10 PM | Jake Irvin vs. Eury Pérez | Projected |
| STL @ PHI | 6:05 PM | Quinn Mathews vs. Andrew Painter | Projected |
| TB @ BAL | 7:05 PM | Shane McClanahan vs. Brandon Young | Projected |
| LAA @ TEX | 7:05 PM | Ryan Johnson vs. Cody Bradford | Projected |
| NYM @ CWS | 7:10 PM | Christian Scott vs. Luis Castillo | Projected |
| ATH @ HOU | 7:10 PM | Jacob Lopez vs. Hunter Brown | Projected |
| SF @ BOS | 7:15 PM | Blade Tidwell vs. Patrick Sandoval | Projected |
| DET @ KC | 7:15 PM | Drew Anderson vs. Michael Wacha | Projected |
| CHC @ SEA | 7:15 PM | David Peterson vs. Kade Anderson | Projected |
| PIT @ LAD | 7:15 PM | Jared Jones vs. Tarik Skubal | Projected |
| CLE @ COL | 8:10 PM | Tanner Bibee vs. Gabriel Hughes | Projected |
| CIN @ AZ | 8:10 PM | Rhett Lowder vs. Michael Soroka | Projected |
| MIN @ SD | 8:40 PM | Dean Kremer vs. Casey Mize |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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