Looking for the best home run props today? Saturday brings a 17-game MLB slate with all 30 teams in action, including two doubleheaders: Red Sox-Yankees and Diamondbacks-Giants.
Two matchups stand out early: Bailey Ober (White Sox-Twins) and Foster Griffin (Royals-Guardians) each surrendered three of today's most notable home run plays, and the sportsbook market hasn't fully caught up to either arm yet.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Saturday, August 29.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Kyle Schwarber Home Run Prop vs. Ryan Johnson
Schwarber owns the highest RotoBombs score on Saturday's slate at 9.2, translating to a 26% home run probability and +284 fair odds.
He's barreling 16.7% of his batted balls and averaging 90.6 mph off the bat over the past month, with the rate actually climbing to 20% recently. Johnson throws his cutter 35% of the time, and it's the pitch Schwarber punishes most. Angel Stadium's 86-degree forecast with wind blowing out should add another few feet of carry.
The number doesn't match the projection. +221 at Polymarket sits well below the model's consensus-beating threshold — the market has already priced in most of Schwarber's edge. He's today's top prediction, not today's best bet.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +284 (26%)
- Best Available Odds: +221 at Polymarket
2. Miguel Vargas Home Run Prop vs. Bailey Ober
Vargas grades Elite at 7.8, with a 22.6% probability and +343 fair odds.
His power has cooled slightly of late but still sits at a 12.5% barrel rate and 90.6-mph average exit velocity over the past month. Ober leans on his changeup 34% of the time, and that's the pitch Vargas has done the most damage against. Ober has also been hit hard in his last few outings.
The price backs it up. +471 at Kalshi clears the model's consensus threshold by 2.2 percentage points, projecting a positive return of roughly 29 cents per dollar risked.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +343 (22.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +471 at Kalshi
3. Pete Alonso Home Run Prop vs. Jack Perkins
Alonso grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.1% probability and +352 fair odds.
A 20.3% barrel rate and 94.7-mph average exit velocity over the past month is a legitimately strong stretch of contact. Perkins throws his fastball a third of the time, Alonso's best matchup pitch, and Sutter Health Park's 80-degree forecast with a 10-mph wind blowing out adds real carry.
The price doesn't hold up. +270 at Prophet X comes in well short of the model's threshold. Alonso is a strong projection, but not a played number today.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +352 (22.1%)
- Best Available Odds: +270 at Prophet X
4. Munetaka Murakami Home Run Prop vs. Bailey Ober
Murakami grades Strong at 7.0, with a 20.6% probability and +386 fair odds.
He's barreling 19.7% of his batted balls and averaging 93.6 mph off the bat over the past month. Like Vargas, he gets Ober's changeup, his own best matchup pitch, and Ober's recent struggles cut both ways for the two White Sox hitters.
+306 at Kalshi falls short of the model's consensus threshold. The projection is real, but Vargas is the better-priced way into this same matchup.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +386 (20.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +306 at Kalshi
5. Jac Caglianone Home Run Prop vs. Foster Griffin
Caglianone grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20% probability and +400 fair odds.
He's barreling 14.6% of his batted balls and averaging 93.6 mph off the bat over the past month. Griffin throws his sweeper 14% of the time, Caglianone's best matchup pitch, and Griffin has been hit hard lately. Progressive Field's 85-degree forecast with wind blowing out adds another boost.
+525 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 1.2 percentage points, making this one of the few top-five projections that's also a played number.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +400 (20%)
- Best Available Odds: +525 at Novig
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Only two of the slate's five highest-scored hitters — Vargas and Caglianone — clear that threshold. Schwarber, Alonso and Murakami all grade Elite or Strong but miss it at today's prices. Here are the best values on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino | vs. CLE | 6.2 | +920 at FanDuel | +6.6 pts |
| Carter Jensen | vs. CLE | 6.6 | +707 at Kalshi | +5.0 pts |
| Jake Rogers | vs. MIN | 6.1 | +650 at BetMGM | +2.0 pts |
| Jackson Merrill | vs. TB | 6.0 | +625 at Caesars | +3.1 pts |
| Miguel Vargas | vs. MIN | 7.8 | +471 at Kalshi | +2.2 pts |
| Jac Caglianone | vs. CLE | 6.8 | +525 at Novig | +1.2 pts |
Vinnie Pasquantino owns the largest model-versus-market edge on the slate. He ranks 12th by raw score, but his +920 price at FanDuel is 6.6 percentage points better than the market consensus and carries a projected return of roughly 88 cents per dollar risked.
Three of the six values on this list — Pasquantino, Jensen and Caglianone — come from the same Royals-Guardians game against Foster Griffin. Two more — Rogers and Vargas — come from White Sox-Twins against Bailey Ober. The market hasn't caught up to either pitcher's recent home run rate yet, and both games are worth a longer look before the numbers move.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
White Sox at Twins (Bailey Ober)
Four White Sox hitters grade Lean or better against Ober. Randal Grichuk (6.6) is the highest-scored of the group but had no live price at publication. Jake Rogers clears the model's value threshold at +650, while Kody Clemens (5.9, +539 at Polymarket) and Colson Montgomery (5.7, +386 at Kalshi) both grade Lean but fall short of it.
Royals at Guardians (Foster Griffin)
Griffin is the slate's most heavily targeted pitcher. Jac Caglianone leads on raw score, but Carter Jensen and Vinnie Pasquantino both offer bigger prices relative to their projections — Pasquantino's +920 number is the best value anywhere on the board today.
Padres at Rays (Nick Martinez)
Fernando Tatis Jr. grades Strong at 6.7 but doesn't clear the model's value check at even money on the current +407 number. Jackson Merrill, one spot behind him at 6.0, does clear it at +625 at Caesars — the better bet of the two Padres hitters today.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Miguel Vargas to hit a home run at +471 at Kalshi is my favorite bet on Saturday's slate.
Vargas is the only hitter in today's top three by raw score who also clears the market's own price check, and the matchup supports it: Ober leans on a changeup that Vargas already handles well, and Ober has been hit hard in his last few outings. That's the full package — a real projection, a real matchup edge and a price the model says is still too generous.
For bettors chasing bigger plus money, Vinnie Pasquantino's +920 number at FanDuel carries the largest edge on the board, just on a lower-scored player. Vargas is the cleaner blend of quality and price.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at NYY (Game 1) | 1:05 p.m. | Jake Bennett vs. Carlos Rodon | Projected |
| LAD at DET | 1:10 p.m. | Blake Snell vs. Keider Montero | Projected |
| CWS at MIN | 2:10 p.m. | Erick Fedde vs. Bailey Ober | Projected |
| PIT at STL | 2:15 p.m. | Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Kyle Leahy | Projected |
| CIN at CHC | 2:20 p.m. | Andrew Abbott vs. Kevin Gausman | Projected |
| SEA at TOR | 3:07 p.m. | Kade Anderson vs. Jose Soriano | Projected |
| MIA at WSH | 4:05 p.m. | Sandy Alcantara vs. Cade Cavalli | Projected |
| AZ at SF (Game 1) | 4:05 p.m. | Merrill Kelly vs. Anthony Molina | Projected |
| COL at ATL | 4:10 p.m. | Ryan Feltner vs. Martin Perez | Projected |
| SD at TB | 4:10 p.m. | Walker Buehler vs. Nick Martinez | Projected |
| KC at CLE | 4:10 p.m. | Daniel Lynch vs. Foster Griffin | Projected |
| HOU at NYM | 4:10 p.m. | Bennett Sousa vs. Nolan McLean | Projected |
| BOS at NYY (Game 2) | 7:15 p.m. | Brayan Bello vs. Max Fried | Projected |
| TEX at MIL | 7:15 p.m. | Cal Quantrill vs. Shane Drohan | Projected |
| BAL at ATH | 10:05 p.m. | Shane Baz vs. Jack Perkins | Projected |
| AZ at SF (Game 2) | 10:05 p.m. | Mitch Bratt vs. Matt Wilkinson | Projected |
| PHI at LAA | 10:07 p.m. | Cristopher Sanchez vs. Ryan Johnson | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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