Looking for the best home run props today? We've got 15 games on today's slate, and a New York Met tops the board outright, while the model flagged two other lineups with a positive matchup.
Here's where our home run predictions model is pointing for Sunday, August 16. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, edges against books, and try our tool yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 16, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it. Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at.
These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability. That doesn't mean they have the best value. We cover that later in the article.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Jake Irvin (WSH)
Lindor tops today's board, and he does it with his lineup spot already locked in — batting second for the Mets, confirmed, not projected. 8.4, 23.9%, fair +319. The underlying profile matches the price: he's barreling 11.7% of his batted balls and averaging 90.9 mph off the bat over the past month. The matchup adds real lift on top of that — Irvin goes to his four-seam 28% of the time, and Lindor's doing about half a point more damage against it than his own baseline, against a version of the pitch that's been getting barreled up all year. Irvin's been leaking loud contact across the board lately, which only helps.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +319 (23.9% probability)
2. Jac Caglianone (KC) vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA)
Caglianone is the headliner of the Royals' team-wide stack against Johnson tonight — nine Kansas City hitters carry real edge against the Angels righty, and Caglianone's the best of the group. 7.8, 22.6%, fair +342. He's barreling 15% of his batted balls and averaging 94.2 mph off the bat over the past month, and he's squaring the ball up even more than that lately. Johnson goes to his cutter 31% of the time, and that's the pitch Caglianone punishes hardest — nearly a full point above his own damage baseline, against a cutter that's been getting hit hard all year. The one real caution: he's struggled against the splitter, which shows up about a quarter of the time.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +342 (22.6% probability)
3. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Drew Anderson (DET)
Murakami hits the ball as hard as anyone on this slate — 21.7% barrel rate, 94.3 mph average exit velo over the past month, the hardest-hit profile in today's top five. 7.5, 21.8%, fair +359. Anderson leans on his four-seam 40% of the time, and it's the pitch Murakami does the most damage against — better than 6 points above his own baseline, the single biggest pitch-specific edge in today's top five. Confirmed batting second for the White Sox.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +359 (21.8% probability)
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
If you're looking for value or longshot homers today, this is your section.
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, not a guess: it compares each hitter's real fair odds tonight against his "usual" RotoBombs price — what he'd price at on talent alone, with tonight's specific pitcher, park, and weather stripped back out to neutral. A big gap means tonight's matchup is doing real work to shorten his price versus what he'd normally get.
Four of today's top five clear the tool's actual +EV threshold:
- Francisco Lindor: usual price +557 → +319 today, the widest gap in the top five.
- Owen Caissie: usual +558 → +367 today.
- Kyle Stowers: usual +551 → +368 today.
- Jac Caglianone: usual +509 → +342 today.
Further down the board, the Royals' and Mets' stacks show the widest gaps of the day — wider, in points, than anyone in the top five, even though the grades are a notch below:
- Salvador Perez: usual +781 → +430 today, Strong tier.
- Starling Marte: usual +743 → +408 today, Strong tier.
- Jared Young: usual +693 → +392 today, Strong tier, confirmed for the Mets.
- Bobby Witt Jr.: usual +683 → +389 today, Strong tier.
- John Rave: usual +647 → +368 today, Elite tier.
Those are real gaps at real underlying probability — Strong-or-better grades, not longshots — even outside the top five. Michael Massey, Vinnie Pasquantino, and Isaac Collins all show gaps of 290+ points too on the same Royals-Ryan Johnson matchup, but at Lean tier or worse. That's evidence of how lopsided the matchup is, not a recommendation on its own.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The Royals' stack vs. Ryan Johnson (KC @ LAA, Angel Stadium) — Bobby Witt Jr. grades Strong (7.0, +389) and Salvador Perez grades Strong (6.4, +430), the two headline names in a nine-hitter Kansas City lineup that all carry real edge against Johnson's cutter today, with Starling Marte (6.7, +408) right there too.
- The Marlins' other two bats vs. Nick Lodolo (MIA @ CIN, Great American Ball Park) — Griffin Conine grades Strong (6.9, +394) on the same four-seam edge carrying Caissie and Stowers into the top five, riding a hot bat and that 112 park factor. Four Marlins bats total against one Reds arm today.
- The Mets' pair vs. Jake Irvin (WSH @ NYM, Citi Field) — Jared Young grades Strong (6.9, +392) and Bo Bichette grades Lean (5.7, +479), both confirmed in the lineup alongside Lindor already in the top five.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Francisco Lindor today. The Royals stack and Miami's trip to Cincinnati are both real, data-backed storylines, but they're team-wide bets that need the whole lineup card to hold up as projected. Lindor doesn't need anything else to break right — his spot is locked in, batting second, confirmed, against a pitcher who's been giving up loud contact all month. Elite grade, real four-seam edge, clears our own +EV bar by the widest margin in the top five, and zero lineup risk. That's the cleanest process on the board today.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
Today's Full MLB Slate
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TB | 12:15 PM | Trevor Rogers vs. Freddy Peralta | Confirmed |
| BOS @ PIT | 1:35 PM | Patrick Sandoval vs. Lake Bachar | Projected |
| AZ @ ATL | 1:35 PM | Michael Soroka vs. Bryce Elder | Projected |
| NYY @ TOR | 1:37 PM | Ryan Weathers vs. Dylan Cease | Confirmed |
| WSH @ NYM | 1:40 PM | Jake Irvin vs. Christian Scott | Projected |
| SD @ CLE | 1:40 PM | Casey Mize vs. Tanner Bibee | Confirmed |
| CWS @ DET | 1:40 PM | Sean Burke vs. Drew Anderson | Confirmed |
| MIA @ CIN | 1:40 PM | Eury Pérez vs. Nick Lodolo | Projected |
| PHI @ MIN | 2:10 PM | Andrew Painter vs. Dean Kremer | Projected |
| STL @ CHC | 3:15 PM | Hunter Dobbins vs. Edward Cabrera | Projected |
| COL @ SF | 4:05 PM | Gabriel Hughes vs. Blade Tidwell | Projected |
| TEX @ ATH | 4:05 PM | Cody Bradford vs. Jacob Lopez | Projected |
| KC @ LAA | 4:07 PM | Noah Cameron vs. Ryan Johnson | Projected |
| MIL @ LAD | 4:10 PM | Logan Henderson vs. Tarik Skubal | Projected |
| SEA @ HOU | 7:20 PM | Bryan Woo vs. Hunter Brown | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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