Use our data-driven betting tool to find the best home run props for Sunday, August 22. We're back with a full slate of 15 games after a day of many top bats coming within feet of clearing the wall.
Luckily, today is the best weather day we've had all week, with all five bats grading out as Elite for the first time. Our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, helped a user turn $5 into over $3,000 on Friday. Are you next?
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Best Home Run Predictions Today (August 23, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it. Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
Based on the RotoBombs model, these are the players most likely to go yard today.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Cal Raleigh (SEA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.1 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +328
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +346
Two days ago in this space, Raleigh was a Lean-tier pick with a brutal batting-average caveat attached. Today he's the model's outright top score, confirmed batting seventh for Seattle. He's been barreling 15.1% of his batted balls and averaging 94 mph off the bat over the past month — a legitimately strong stretch of contact. About 41% of what Imanaga throws is the four-seam, Raleigh's favorite pitch to do damage against, and Imanaga's been giving up loud contact lately. T-Mobile Park plays up for his swing on top of it.
2. Matt Olson (ATL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.9 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +342
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +489
Olson is confirmed batting third for Atlanta. He's been barreling 22.4% of his batted balls and averaging 93 mph off the bat over the past month — comfortably enough thump to clear a fence. About 29% of what Drohan throws is the four-seam, exactly the pitch Olson punishes most, and American Family Field plays up for his swing. The counter: he's struggled against the curveball, which shows up about 13% of the time.
3. Jo Adell (CLE)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.8 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +362
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +285
Adell is confirmed batting cleanup for Cleveland, and his swing has been producing loud contact across the board — an 18.2% barrel rate and 94.2 mph average exit velocity over the past month, with the trend line still pointing up. About 11% of what Sugano throws is the cutter, Adell's best matchup pitch, against a pitcher who's been hit hard of late. Coors Field plays up for his swing as well. The counter: he's struggled against the four-seam, which shows up about 20% of the time.
4. Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.5 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +362
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +216
Schwarber is confirmed batting leadoff as Philadelphia's DH. His contact quality has cooled a touch the last couple weeks, but a 12.3% barrel rate and 91.2 mph average exit velocity over the past month is still real thump, and he's the kind of hitter park factors barely matter for anyway. About 27% of what Leahy throws is the four-seam, Schwarber's best matchup pitch. The counter: he's struggled against the curveball, which shows up about 16% of the time, and Citizens Bank Park's new, much higher park factor notwithstanding, it's actually a below-average park for his specific handedness pull profile.
5. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.2 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +376
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +300
Tatis is confirmed batting leadoff for San Diego, and he's in his best contact stretch of the season — a 14.3% barrel rate and 95 mph average exit velocity over the past month. About 34% of what Ober throws is the changeup, Tatis's best matchup pitch, and Ober's been giving up loud contact lately. The counter: he's struggled against the sweeper, which shows up about 12% of the time.
Today's Home Run Picks with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Brock Rodden (SEA): best odds +930 → +492 per model
- Luis Lara (MIL): best odds +1200 → +703 per model
- Charles McAdoo (TOR): best odds +980 → +577 per model
- Daz Cameron (TOR): best odds +740 → +442 per model
- Taylor Trammell (HOU): best odds +820 → +538 per model
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Props Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) — confirmed batting second for Texas. A 14.5% barrel rate and 92.5 mph average exit velocity over the past month, with Kikuchi's splitter — his best matchup pitch — showing up about 22% of the time.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) vs. Tyler Mahle (ATL) — confirmed batting second for Milwaukee, in the same game as Olson above. A real 4.8-point damage edge on Mahle's cutter, and hitters in general have been teeing off on Mahle lately.
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) vs. Carlos Rodón (NYY) — confirmed batting third for Toronto, with a 140-point odds gap against a Rodón who's been hit hard of late.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Lake Bachar (PIT) — confirmed batting leadoff as designated hitter. This is the opener game mentioned above: Bachar starts, but Carmen Mlodzinski takes over after an inning or two, so most of Ohtani's looks tonight may actually come against the bulk arm rather than the pitcher listed.
- Patrick Bailey (CLE) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) — confirmed batting third for Cleveland, and carries the widest odds gap on the entire board (see above), even with a more ordinary power profile than the names above it.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Bryce Miller (SEA) — confirmed batting leadoff for the Cubs, in the same game as Raleigh above. A 17.5% barrel rate over the past month, and Miller's four-seam — his most-used pitch — is exactly what Crow-Armstrong does his damage against.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm betting onCal Raleigh today. He's the model's highest raw score today, he's got the widest value gap of the confirmed top five, and he's locked into Seattle's real batting order at the No. 7 spot. It's also a nice turnaround story: two days ago he was a batting-average-caveat Lean pick in this same space, and today the underlying power carried him all the way to the top of the board on his own merits. When the best score and the best value line up on the same confirmed name, that's the one I'm taking.
Want more of this? RotoWire All-Access gets you the full lineup optimizer and matchup tools behind everything above, every single day of the season.
Use Our MLB Home Run Props Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ BAL | 1:35 PM | Nick Martinez vs. Shane Baz | Projected |
| TOR @ NYY | 1:35 PM | Jose Soriano vs. Carlos Rodón | Projected |
| STL @ PHI | 1:35 PM | Kyle Leahy vs. Cristopher Sánchez | Projected |
| WSH @ MIA | 1:40 PM | Jackson Kent vs. Janson Junk | Projected |
| NYM @ CWS | 2:10 PM | Nolan McLean vs. Erick Fedde* | Projected |
| DET @ KC | 2:10 PM | Andrew Sears* vs. Daniel Lynch | Projected |
| ATH @ HOU | 2:10 PM | Jack Perkins* vs. Cristian Javier | Projected |
| LAA @ TEX | 2:35 PM | Yusei Kikuchi vs. Cal Quantrill | Projected |
| CLE @ COL | 3:10 PM | Foster Griffin vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | Projected |
| SF @ BOS | 3:15 PM | Trent Harris* vs. Jake Bennett | Projected |
| CHC @ SEA | 4:10 PM | Shota Imanaga vs. Bryce Miller | Projected |
| PIT @ LAD | 4:10 PM | Lake Bachar† vs. Blake Snell | Projected |
| MIN @ SD | 4:10 PM | Bailey Ober vs. Walker Buehler | Projected |
| CIN @ AZ | 4:15 PM | Andrew Abbott vs. Mitch Bratt | Projected |
| ATL @ MIL | 7:10 PM | Tyler Mahle vs. Shane Drohan | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
It's important to remember to gamble responsibly. Our model provides home run predictions — not guarantees. RotoWire, along with the sportsbooks referenced in this article, are committed to promoting safe and responsible gambling. If you have any questions or concerns about your ability to gamble responsibly, please consider reaching out to the National Council for Problem Gambling (NCPG) or the International Center for Responsible Gaming (ICRG). Both organizations are dedicated to providing support and advocacy for individuals who may need it.
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