Looking for the best home run props today? Sunday brings a 14-game MLB slate with 28 teams in action.
None of today's five highest-scored hitters clear the model's own market-value check — the best price plays come from further down the board. The bigger story on the weather side is at Wrigley Field, where a confirmed 9-mph wind blowing out to center field lifts every Reds and Cubs hitter in tonight's game, including our top overall projection.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Sunday, August 30.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Sal Stewart Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Stewart grades Strong at 7.0, with a 20.5% probability and +387 fair odds — the highest score on Sunday's slate.
His power is closer to average than elite, but the matchup and the conditions both help: Imanaga throws his fastball 41% of the time, Stewart's best matchup pitch, and Imanaga has been leaving hittable pitches over the plate recently. Wrigley Field's wind is blowing out to center at 9 mph tonight, adding an estimated 13 feet of carry.
The price doesn't hold up. +363 at Kalshi falls 5.1 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +387 (20.5%)
Best Available Odds: +363 at Kalshi
2. Jake Bauers Home Run Prop vs. Kumar Rocker
Bauers grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20.0% probability and +401 fair odds.
He's barreling 15.5% of his batted balls and averaging 91.3 mph off the bat over the past month, even if the last couple weeks have cooled. Rocker throws his cutter 14% of the time, and it's the pitch Bauers has done the most damage against. Hitters have been teeing off on Rocker in his last few outings. American Family Field's retractable roof is projected closed tonight, which neutralizes the 16-mph outdoor wind either way.
+433 at Polymarket is close to fair value but files just short of the model's threshold, missing by 1.0 percentage point.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +401 (20.0%)
Best Available Odds: +433 at Polymarket
3. Christian Encarnacion-Strand Home Run Prop vs. Jeffrey Springs
Encarnacion-Strand grades Strong at 6.6, with a 19.6% probability and +410 fair odds.
He's barreling 15.9% of his batted balls and averaging 92.3 mph off the bat over the past month, though contact has cooled some in recent weeks. Springs throws his changeup 24% of the time, and it's Encarnacion-Strand's best matchup pitch by a wide margin — 8.3 points above his own damage baseline.
+357 at Polymarket comes in well short of the model's threshold. The matchup is real; the number isn't there yet.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +410 (19.6%)
Best Available Odds: +357 at Polymarket
4. Tyler Stephenson Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Stephenson grades Strong at 6.5, with a 19.1% probability and +423 fair odds.
He's barreling 15.1% of his batted balls and averaging 91 mph off the bat over the past month. Imanaga throws his fastball 41% of the time, Stephenson's best matchup pitch by 7.1 points above his own baseline, and he's been hit hard in his last few outings. Like Stewart, he gets the benefit of Wrigley's wind blowing out to center tonight.
+433 at Polymarket is close but still misses the model's threshold, by 1.7 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +423 (19.1%)
Best Available Odds: +433 at Polymarket
5. Pete Alonso Home Run Prop vs. Jeffrey Springs
Alonso grades Strong at 6.4, with a 19.1% probability and +423 fair odds.
A 20.3% barrel rate and 94.5-mph average exit velocity over the past month is a legitimately strong stretch of contact. Springs throws his fastball 44% of the time, Alonso's best matchup pitch.
The price is the widest miss among today's top five. +261 at Kalshi sits 10.8 percentage points below the model's threshold — Alonso is a strong projection, but not a played number today.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +423 (19.1%)
Best Available Odds: +261 at Kalshi
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
None of the slate's five highest-scored hitters clear that threshold today. Here are the best values on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt McLain | vs. CHC | 5.8 | +539 at Polymarket | +0.1 pts |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | vs. STL | 5.3 | +707 at Kalshi | +1.5 pts |
| Michael Conforto | vs. CIN | 5.1 | +657 at Prophet X | +0.3 pts |
| Jackson Merrill | vs. TB | 5.1 | +646 at Kalshi | +0.8 pts |
| Andrew Benintendi | vs. MIN | 5.0 | +646 at Kalshi | +0.5 pts |
| Alec Bohm | vs. LAA | 4.6 | +733 at Novig | +1.0 pts |
Matt McLain owns the best combination of score and value on the board tonight. He's one tier below the top five on raw grade, but he's playing in the same Wrigley Field wind that's boosting Stewart and Stephenson above, and his +539 price at Polymarket still clears the model's consensus check.
Wrigley shows up twice on this list — Michael Conforto, on the other side of the same game, also clears the threshold. Both benefit from the 9-mph wind blowing out to center field that's now confirmed across every live weather source tracking tonight's game.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Reds at Cubs (Shota Imanaga)
This is the game to watch tonight. Beyond McLain, Stewart and Stephenson above, JJ Bleday (5.8) and Eugenio Suárez (5.5) both grade Lean or better and get the same wind-out benefit, though neither clears the model's value check at today's prices. On the Cubs side, Michael Conforto (above) and Héctor Rodríguez (4.9, +676 at Prophet X) round out the value plays in this park.
Orioles at Athletics (Jeffrey Springs)
Three Orioles hitters grade Strong or better against Springs — Alonso and Encarnacion-Strand (both above), plus Coby Mayo (6.1). All three miss the model's value check at today's prices, Mayo by the widest margin at +337 at Polymarket.
Red Sox at Yankees (Will Warren)
Yankee Stadium's wind is blowing out to left field at 11 mph tonight — the strongest carry boost on the slate — and four Red Sox hitters grade Lean or better. Wilyer Abreu (6.0) and Willson Contreras (5.9) both miss the model's value check at their current prices, though neither is far off.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Matt McLain to hit a home run at +539 at Polymarket is my favorite bet on Sunday's slate.
McLain checks every box: a Lean-plus projection that still clears the model's value threshold, and a matchup where the conditions read is no longer in doubt. Wrigley Field's wind is blowing out to center field at 9 mph tonight — confirmed independently by RotoWire's own feed, Weather.com and the National Weather Service — and McLain gets the added benefit of Imanaga's splitter, the pitch he's punished most this season, at 2.8 points above his own damage baseline. That's a real matchup, a real park boost and a price the model says is still fair.
Rafael Flores Jr. offers a second look at real plus-value on a different game for bettors who want to spread the exposure.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA at WSH | 12:15 p.m. | Janson Junk vs. Andrew Alvarez | In Progress |
| COL at ATL | 1:35 p.m. | Mason Adams vs. Tyler Mahle | Confirmed |
| BOS at NYY | 1:35 p.m. | Ranger Suarez vs. Will Warren | Confirmed |
| SEA at TOR | 1:37 p.m. | Logan Gilbert vs. Max Scherzer | Confirmed |
| LAD at DET | 1:40 p.m. | Tyler Glasnow vs. Framber Valdez | Confirmed |
| SD at TB | 1:40 p.m. | Robbie Ray vs. Drew Rasmussen | Projected |
| KC at CLE | 1:40 p.m. | Seth Lugo vs. Parker Messick | Confirmed |
| CWS at MIN | 2:10 p.m. | Jordan Hicks vs. Zebby Matthews | Confirmed |
| TEX at MIL | 2:10 p.m. | Kumar Rocker vs. Dustin May | Confirmed |
| PIT at STL | 2:15 p.m. | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Matthew Liberatore | Confirmed |
| HOU at NYM | 3:10 p.m. | Ethan Pecko vs. Zac Thornton | Projected |
| BAL at ATH | 4:05 p.m. | Chris Bassitt vs. Jeffrey Springs | Projected |
| PHI at LAA | 4:07 p.m. | Zack Wheeler vs. Yusei Kikuchi | Projected |
| CIN at CHC | 7:20 p.m. | Chase Burns vs. Shota Imanaga | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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