Looking for the best home run props today? Sunday brings a 15-game slate with first pitch as early as 12:10 p.m. ET in Cincinnati and running through a 10:10 p.m. finale at Dodger Stadium. About a third of today's lineups are already official this early — a better start than most days — but confirm the rest before placing any home run bets.
Cincinnati's series finale against Milwaukee is the story of the board. Both bullpens are already flagged as tired heading in, and it shows: three Reds hitters grade Elite in the same game, with six total Cincinnati bats and three more Brewers making today's candidate pool out of one matchup.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Friday, September 4.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Sal Stewart Home Run Prop vs. Kyle Harrison
Stewart grades Elite at 8.6, with a 24.4% probability and +309 fair odds — the top score on Sunday's slate.
He's riding a rising 30-day trend into a start where Milwaukee's bullpen is already gassed behind Harrison, and the model flags Harrison himself as vulnerable on top of it. The one blemish is a recent cooling trend in his own underlying contact, which the matchup is doing most of the work to override.
+471 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 4.2 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +309 (24.4%)
Best Available Odds: +471 at Kalshi
2. Elly De La Cruz Home Run Prop vs. Kyle Harrison
De La Cruz grades Elite at 8.0, with a 23.0% probability and +335 fair odds.
Elite exit velocity, elite barrel rate and elite bat speed all point the same direction, and he's rising over his last 30 days on top of it. The only real caution flag is a documented weakness against sweepers.
+471 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 3.0 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +335 (23.0%)
Best Available Odds: +471 at Kalshi
3. Tyler Stephenson Home Run Prop vs. Kyle Harrison
Stephenson grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.3% probability and +349 fair odds.
He's the third Cincinnati bat in this same tired-bullpen game, with a real fastball edge against Harrison and Great American's premium home-run environment underneath him. The market clearly hasn't caught up to this one yet.
+545 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 5.7 percentage points — the best value of today's top five.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +349 (22.3%)
Best Available Odds: +545 at Novig
4. Miguel Vargas Home Run Prop vs. Bailey Ober
Vargas grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.2% probability and +351 fair odds.
His raw power output is real, he's got a changeup edge against Ober specifically, and the model already flags Minnesota's starter as vulnerable tonight. A recent cooling trend in his own contact is the one thing to watch.
+380 at Polymarket falls 0.7 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +351 (22.2%)
Best Available Odds: +380 at Polymarket
5. Kyle Schwarber Home Run Prop vs. Tyler Mahle
Schwarber grades Elite at 7.4, with a 21.6% probability and +363 fair odds.
Elite bat speed and real power output carry this one, with a splitter edge against Mahle giving it a concrete mechanical reason beyond raw thump. He's cooled off recently and is whiff-prone enough that the market has already moved past the model's number.
+301 at Polymarket falls 6.8 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +363 (21.6%)
Best Available Odds: +301 at Polymarket
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Stewart, De La Cruz and Stephenson already clear that bar above. Here are the best values elsewhere on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | vs. BAL | 7.3 (Elite) | +730 at DraftKings | +8.1 pts |
| Elias Díaz | vs. TB | 6.5 (Strong) | +852 at Novig | +7.7 pts |
| John Peck | vs. CLE | 5.0 (Pass) | +1400 at DraftKings | +7.3 pts |
| Sal Frelick | vs. CIN | 5.5 (Lean) | +953 at Novig | +6.0 pts |
| Dane Myers | vs. MIL | 6.5 (Strong) | +770 at Novig | +5.3 pts |
| Adley Rutschman | vs. BOS | 5.9 (Lean) | +770 at Novig | +4.9 pts |
Mickey Gasper owns both the best score and the best edge of the value group — an Elite-tier grade on its own merits, a real snake-eyes edge against Baltimore's Kyle Bradish, and a price still 8.1 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair. That's the rare case of conviction and value pointing the same direction at a real number.
Elias Díaz and John Peck offer the longest raw prices on the board for bettors chasing expected value over probability, while Frelick and Myers give the Reds-Brewers marquee matchup a second and third angle beyond the Elite trio above. Rutschman rounds out Baltimore's side of that same Boston-Baltimore game as Gasper.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Nationals at Dodgers (Andrew Alvarez and Justin Wrobleski)
Both starters are working with real vulnerabilities tonight. James Wood and Yohandy Morales both carry the model's "Gopher Pitch" flag against Wrobleski, with Morales the better value at +641 against a 428 fair number. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani grades Strong against a similarly exploitable Alvarez, though the market has already priced most of that in.
Rangers vs. Rays (MacKenzie Gore and Ian Seymour)
Texas gets three usable bats against Seymour — Díaz headlines above, with Justin Foscue adding a real changeup edge of his own and Jake Burger riding a hot recent stretch, even at only a marginal market edge.
Braves at Phillies (Tyler Mahle and Aaron Nola)
Schwarber headlines above, but Ronald Acuña Jr. is worth knowing on the other side — elite exit velocity, barrel rate and bat speed against a Mahle start the model flags as vulnerable, even if the market is already sitting close to fair on him.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Mickey Gasper to hit a home run at +730 at DraftKings is my favorite bet on Sunday's slate.
This is a case where the model's conviction and the market's price agree without any hedging required. Gasper grades Elite on his own hot streak and a real edge against Bradish's snake-eyes, Bradish himself is a flagged vulnerable arm today, and the number still sits 8.1 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair — the largest edge attached to a real Elite-tier score anywhere on the board.
John Peck offers a similar idea at a much longer price for bettors who'd rather chase raw expected value than model conviction.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at CIN | 12:10 p.m. | Kyle Harrison vs. Brady Singer | Projected |
| ATL at PHI | 1:10 p.m. | Tyler Mahle vs. Aaron Nola | Projected |
| BOS at BAL | 1:35 p.m. | Payton Tolle vs. Kyle Bradish | Projected |
| LAA at PIT | 1:35 p.m. | Walbert Ureña vs. Paul Skenes | Projected |
| CHC at MIA | 1:40 p.m. | Clay Holmes vs. Tyler Phillips | Projected |
| DET at CLE | 1:40 p.m. | Jackson Jobe vs. Gavin Williams | Projected |
| SF at NYM | 1:40 p.m. | Cesar Perdomo vs. Christian Scott | Projected |
| AZ at HOU | 2:10 p.m. | Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Peter Lambert | Projected |
| TOR at KC | 2:10 p.m. | Spencer Arrighetti vs. Randy Dobnak | Projected |
| TB at TEX | 2:35 p.m. | Ian Seymour vs. MacKenzie Gore | Projected |
| STL at COL | 3:10 p.m. | Kyle Leahy vs. Tanner Gordon | Projected |
| ATH at SEA | 4:10 p.m. | Gage Jump vs. Bryan Woo | Projected |
| NYY at SD | 4:10 p.m. | Gerrit Cole vs. Michael King | Projected |
| MIN at CWS | 6:20 p.m. | Bailey Ober vs. Bryan Hudson | Projected |
| WSH at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Andrew Alvarez vs. Justin Wrobleski | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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