Ready to bet on our model's best home run props today? We've got a light 9-game slate, and the RotoBombs board is ready to roll. Three of today's early games (Cleveland-Detroit, Pittsburgh-Miami, and Cincinnati-Chicago) have posted lineups already, since they're all getting going early afternoon.
It's a short slate, so there's less to sift through than usual, but we still have some legit matchup signals. The top favorite to homer today is +408 fair odds. Here's where our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is pointing for Thursday, August 13. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself
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Best MLB Home Run Props Today (August 13, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at.
These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability.
These are the players most likely to homer. That doesn't mean they have the best value. We cover which batters carry the most value later in the article.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch — none of today's games have a forecast loaded yet, so park factor is all we've got to go on right now.
1. Byron Buxton (MIN)
Buxton tops today's board, a Strong 6.6 grade (19.6%, fair odds +411) against Phillies righty Aaron Nola. RotoBombs flags a real four-seam edge — his damage against the pitch runs above his own baseline, and Nola's version of it has gotten barreled up more than most righties' this year — even as the model tags Buxton as cooling off relative to his season form. Minnesota hasn't posted its order yet, so treat this one as a name to watch, not a lock.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +408
- Consensus Odds: +283
- EV: -24.6%
2. Griffin Conine (MIA)
Conine grades out Strong (6.5, 19.2%, +421) against Pirates righty Braxton Ashcraft — elite exit velocity, elite barrel rate, and elite bat speed all showing up in the same profile, plus a four-seam edge and a "heating up" tag. A curveball-trouble flag is worth knowing before betting this specific outcome, and loanDepot park is working against him, not for him. This one's already confirmed — Miami's lineup posted with today's early start.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +421
- Consensus Odds: +481
- EV: +11.5%
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC)
Crow-Armstrong checks in Strong (6.3, 18.9%, +430) against Nationals righty Cade Cavalli, RotoBombs pointing to elite barrel rate, elite bat speed, and a four-seam edge, with the model also flagging him as heating up over his last 25 batted balls. Lineup's still unconfirmed as of this writing.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +425
- Consensus Odds: +327
- EV: -18.7%
4. Luis García Jr. (NYY)
García grades out Strong (6.3, 18.8%, +433) at Yankee Stadium — one of the more favorable home run parks in the sport — against Mariners righty Logan Gilbert, with a real slider edge and a "heating up" flag. A splitter-trouble note knocks it slightly, but the park factor is doing real work here.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +431
- Consensus Odds: +370
- EV: -11.5%
5. Kyle Schwarber (PHI)
There's almost never any +EV to squeeze from prolific power hitters like Schwarber. Still, this is Schwarber's second straight day in our top five, this time grading Lean (6.2, 18.6%, +438) against Twins righty Taj Bradley on elite underlying power and a four-seam edge, even with a cooling-off note attached.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +433
- Consensus Odds: +233
- EV: -37.5%
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
These are the players with the most juice, giving you the best edge against the sportsbook. Meaning, our model projects the player is significantly more likely to hit a home run than the book.
Most odds aren't available right now, but these are players in the model's top-25 that normally have lines set longer than our fair odds today.
- Kaelen Culpepper (MIN)
- Our Odds: +524
- Consensus Odds: +789
- EV: +42.5%
- Jose Siri (LAA)
- Our Odds: +461
- Projected Odds: +550
- EV: +15.9%
- Jesus Sanchez (TOR)
- Our Odds: +476
- Projected Odds: +525
- EV: +17.3%
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The Reds' two bats vs. Davis Martin (CIN @ CWS): Elly De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez both grade out against Davis Martin tonight, and both are already confirmed since Cincinnati-Chicago is one of today's three posted lineups. Suárez's four-seam edge is the standout, 9.5 points above his own baseline on 27% projected usage.
- Brandon Lowe(PIT vs. MIA, loanDepot park): Grades Lean (6.1, 18.4%, +445) against Tyler Phillips on a real sweeper edge. When a batter hits a highly-used pitch well, especially one with true power like Lowe, it's worth a shot.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Today's Full MLB Slate
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE @ DET | 1:10 PM | Parker Messick vs. Keider Montero | Confirmed |
| PIT @ MIA | 1:10 PM | Braxton Ashcraft vs. Tyler Phillips | Confirmed |
| SEA @ NYY | 1:35 PM | Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried | Projected |
| CIN @ CWS | 2:10 PM | Andrew Abbott vs. Davis Martin | Confirmed |
| BOS @ TOR | 3:07 PM | Payton Tolle vs. Max Scherzer | Projected |
| CHC @ WSH | 4:05 PM | Kevin Gausman vs. Cade Cavalli | Projected |
| PHI @ MIN | 7:30 PM | Aaron Nola vs. Taj Bradley | Projected |
| TEX @ LAA | 10:07 PM | Jacob deGrom vs. Walbert Ureña | Projected |
| MIL @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Shane Drohan vs. Roki Sasaki | Projected |
For confirmed lineups and live weather through first pitch, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
It's important to remember to gamble responsibly. Our model provides home run predictions -- not guarantees. RotoWire, along with the sportsbooks referenced in this article, are committed to promoting safe and responsible gambling. If you have any questions or concerns about your ability to gamble responsibly, please consider reaching out to the National Council for Problem Gambling (NCPG) or the International Center for Responsible Gaming (ICRG). Both organizations are dedicated to providing support and advocacy for individuals who may need it.
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