Use our data-driven betting tool to find the best home run props today. Thursdays are usually the quiet day on the baseball calendar, and today's no exception. With just nine games on the board, it's a big step down from the 15-game marathons we've had most of the week.
Still, our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is having a great week. Yesterday, multiple users cashed parlays with the tool.
And today, multiple players grade out Elite, the model's strongest signal. Here's where the model is pointing for Thursday, August 20. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 20, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability — not a value or edge ranking. See the Best Edge section below for that.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.6 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +310
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +355 (DraftKings)
This is the model's top score on the whole board, and honestly, it's not hard to see why. De La Cruz just delivered the first walk-off hit of his career two nights ago, and he's cooking again after a rough middle stretch of the summer. McGreevy leans on his four-seam about a quarter of the time, and that's exactly the pitch De La Cruz has been running into lately -- a real, measurable edge over his own baseline, against a version of the pitch that's been getting hit hard all month. His only real soft spot is the curveball, but that's a smaller slice of what McGreevy throws. This is a confirmed lineup, an elite-graded matchup, and about as clean a pick as you'll find today.
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.2 (Elite)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +374
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +245
Alvarez is in the middle of a season for the ages — he's slashing over .300 with 36 homers and an outside shot at becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera. That kind of talent doesn't need much help, but he's getting some anyway: Rodriguez throws his four-seam more than half the time, and it's the single pitch Alvarez does the most damage against, a huge gap above his own norm. Rodriguez has been getting hit hard lately too. The one thing holding this back from an even higher grade is that tonight's Astros lineup isn't official yet, so treat the batting order as our best estimate rather than gospel.
3. Sal Stewart (CIN) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.6 (Strong)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +414
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +500 (Caesars)
Stewart's quietly built a real Rookie of the Year case in Cincinnati, and he hit his 27th home run of the season just last night. He's not the loudest power bat on this board — more good all-around hitter than pure slugger — but the McGreevy matchup helps him the same way it helps De La Cruz: that four-seam is Stewart's best pitch to do damage against, and McGreevy hasn't been fooling anybody with it recently. Confirmed lineup, real form, no red flags.
4. Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs. Grant Holmes (ATL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.4 (Strong)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +428
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +384
Different game, and a guy who's quietly having a nice year for a shockingly good White Sox club — Vargas is up to 28 homers on the season and just came off a two-homer game against Detroit. He's been barreling almost 13% of his batted balls and hitting the ball hard consistently over the past month. Holmes leans on his four-seam close to 30% of the time, and it's the pitch Vargas has done the most damage against — not by a massive margin, but enough to matter, especially against a version of that pitch that's been getting hit hard lately. His one real weakness is the slider, which is a bigger chunk of Holmes's mix, so there's some real risk built in here too.
5. Taylor Trammell (HOU) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.3 (Strong)
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +431
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +610
Same game, different kind of player. Trammell isn't going to hit for average — he's a boom-or-bust bat with real swing-and-miss in his game — but when he connects, it goes a long way, and he's been squaring the ball up better than ever lately. Rodriguez's four-seam is again the exploitable pitch here, and the gap between Trammell's damage on that pitch and his own baseline is the widest of anyone in today's top five. He's not a lock for the lineup card since it's unconfirmed, but recent usage says he plays against right-handers, and Rodriguez fits that bill.
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Ke'Bryan Hayes: best odds +875 → +539 per model
- Chandler Simpson: best odds +3500 → +758 per model
- Steven Kwan: best odds +1860 → +808 per model
- Myles Straw: best odds +1700 → +813 per model
- Osleivis Basabe: best odds +1220 → +604 per model
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Kazuma Okamoto (TOR) vs. Ian Seymour (TOR @ TB, Steinbrenner Field) — Kazuma Okamoto has been a legitimate power source since coming over from Japan, and Seymour's changeup is right in his wheelhouse.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Grant Holmes (ATL @ CWS, Rate Field) — Munetaka Murakami hits the ball as hard as anyone on today's slate; 29 homers and counting in his first MLB season.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL @ CIN, Great American Ball Park) — JJ Bleday is in the same confirmed, official lineup as De La Cruz and Stewart, with real matchup edge against McGreevy's sinker.
- Andrés Chaparro (WSH) vs. Jacob deGrom (WSH @ TEX, Globe Life Field) — Andrés Chaparro has been one of the hottest bats in baseball since the All-Star break, and he hit a three-run homer just last night.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Taylor Trammell today. You're getting a ton of value for a guy who hits with power best against the pitch the opposing throws more than half the time. On top of that, his matchup (Grayson Rodriguez) is one of the softest on the slate, allowing numerous home runs across multiple starts. Yes, you're sacrificing simulated at-bats here, but for the EV you're getting (33.7%) from our model vs. the books is too difficult to pass up.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ CIN | 12:40 PM | Michael McGreevy vs. Brady Singer | Official |
| SF @ CLE | 1:10 PM | Landen Roupp vs. Gavin Williams | Projected |
| TOR @ TB | 1:10 PM | Shane Bieber vs. Ian Seymour | Projected |
| ATH @ KC | 2:10 PM | Gage Jump vs. Randy Dobnak | Projected |
| ATL @ CWS | 2:10 PM | Grant Holmes vs. Anthony Kay | Projected |
| SEA @ MIL | 2:10 PM | George Kirby vs. Robert Gasser | Projected |
| NYY @ BAL | 6:35 PM | Gerrit Cole vs. Kyle Bradish | Projected |
| WSH @ TEX | 8:05 PM | Andrew Alvarez vs. Jacob deGrom | Projected |
| LAA @ HOU | 8:10 PM | Grayson Rodriguez vs. Peter Lambert | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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