Looking for the best home run props today? It's a light seven-game slate, with 14 teams in action and no doubleheaders on the board.
Use our data-driven home run predictions tool to find the best home run props for Thursday, August 27. One user has documented nearly $4,000 in profit over the past week exclusively using our tool.
Here's where our MLB home run picks model, RotoBombs, is pointing today.
Scroll to the bottom of the page if you want to use the tool and research your best home run bets.
Home Run Predictions Today (August 27, 2026)
1. Jake Bauers (MIL) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
Top score on the board, and it's not particularly close — 9.4, 26.4%, fair +279. Bauers is barreling 16.4% of his batted balls and averaging 91.7 mph off the bat over the past month, even if the last couple of weeks have cooled some. The matchup case here is mostly about the pitcher, not a personal pitch-type edge: Manaea leans on his four-seam 39% of the time, and it's been getting crushed league-wide all year (Bauers grades roughly at his own baseline against it personally). Hitters have been teeing off on Manaea in his last few outings, and if tonight's game at Citi Field avoids the forecasted storms, a light wind blowing out to left-center should add close to 18 feet of carry. Two caveats worth knowing: this lineup spot isn't confirmed yet, and no sportsbook has posted a price on him as of this writing.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +279 (26.4% probability)
2. Luis García Jr. (NYY) vs. Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
García heads up a Yankee Stadium card that's doing real work tonight. 7.4, 21.5%, fair +366. He's barreling 16.5% of his batted balls and averaging 91.8 mph off the bat over the past month. Wesneski throws his sweeper about 31% of the time, and it's García's best matchup pitch by a wide margin — 5.4 points of damage above his own baseline. Yankee Stadium's short porch plays up for his swing regardless of wind. The counter: he's struggled against the changeup, which shows up about 11% of the time — and on our own numbers, tonight's DraftKings price of +345 doesn't quite clear our model's consensus-beating bar (a modest -1.7 points), so it's the highest-scoring name on the board that we're not fully sold on price-wise.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +366 (21.5% probability)
3. William Contreras (MIL) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
Second Brewer in the top three, same Manaea matchup driving it. 7.1, 20.7%, fair +384. Contreras's raw power grades about ordinary by big-league standards, but like Bauers above him, the case here leans on the pitcher: roughly 39% of what Manaea throws is the four-seam, and it's been getting barreled by the league all year even though Contreras himself grades close to neutral against it personally. If the Citi Field forecast holds off long enough to play, the wind blowing out to left-center should add real carry — our model has it near 33 feet for his swing path, the most of anyone in tonight's top five.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +384 (20.7% probability)
4. Spencer Jones (NYY) vs. Hayden Wesneski (HOU)
Second Yankee in the top four. 7.0, 20.4%, fair +390. Jones is barreling 23.7% of his batted balls and averaging 95.2 mph off the bat over the past month, and the trend line points up. Wesneski's sinker is only 19% of his mix, but it's Jones's best matchup pitch by a wide margin — 5.1 points above his own baseline. It doesn't hurt that Wesneski has been hit hard of late, and Yankee Stadium plays up for his swing regardless of tonight's forecast. The counter: he's struggled against the sweeper, which shows up about 31% of the time.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +390 (20.4% probability)
5. Jordan Walker (STL) vs. Trevor Rogers (BAL)
Rounds out the top five, and it's the one confirmed lineup spot in the group. 6.5, 19.2%, fair +421. Walker's barreling 12.8% of his batted balls and averaging 88.5 mph off the bat over the past month — both trending up lately. Rogers throws his four-seam about 46% of the time, and it's the pitch Walker punishes hardest, 2.7 points above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting hit hard. Warm, partly cloudy conditions at Busch Stadium should help balls carry today. The counter: he's struggled against the changeup, which shows up about 22% of the time.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +421 (19.2% probability)
Today's +EV Home Run Props
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, not a guess: it compares each hitter's fair probability tonight against the real consensus price across the sportsbooks we track. When our number says he's more likely to go deep than the market is currently pricing him, that's genuine value — a bigger edge means the market hasn't caught up to what the model sees.
Of the 109 hitters with a real book price tonight, 44 clear that bar. The widest true edges on the board:
- Hunter Feduccia (LAD) +1650 at BetMGM) — the market has him at a 5.7% consensus probability; our model has him at 13.5%, a 7.7-point edge and the single best expected value on the slate (+$135 per $100 at that price). Luis Lara (MIL, +1150 at Novig, +6.2 points, +$88 EV)
- Garrett Mitchell (MIL) +940 at DraftKings, +5.9 points, +$74 EV) back him up from the same Brewers-Mets game. Brett Baty (NYM, +900 at Novig, +5.6 points) and Blaze Jordan (STL, +1150 at Novig, +5.5 points, +$79 EV) round out the top five true value plays — all four of these are longer-shot prices the market hasn't sharpened up on yet, not household names.
- Back in the top five picks above: Contreras (+3.1 points, +$38 EV), Jones (+0.6, +$22 EV), and Walker (+2.6, +$33 EV) all clear the real bar. García Jr. and Caglianone don't — despite grading as the #2 and #6 scores on the board, their actual book prices (+345 and +413) are already shorter than what our model's probability alone would justify, so on this filter specifically, they're not the value plays their raw score might suggest.
- Team-wide, tonight's edge is more spread out than concentrated: Milwaukee and St. Louis each have 6 of their 8 priced bats clearing the +EV bar, the most of any team tonight, but it's not the same "every single hitter" sweep as some past slates — Arizona, San Francisco, and the Mets each have a handful of value plays scattered through the order too.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Milwaukee's other bats vs. Sean Manaea (MIL @ NYM, Citi Field) — Jackson Chourio grades Lean (5.8, +468) and Gary Sánchez grades Lean (5.8, +472), both riding the same four-seam-into-the-wind edge carrying Bauers and Contreras into the top three. Garrett Mitchell (Lean, 5.5, +498) and Andrew Vaughn (Lean, 5.3, +517) round out a lineup where six of nine bats grade Lean-or-better tonight.
- The Yankees' other bats vs. Hayden Wesneski (HOU @ NYY, Yankee Stadium) — Ben Rice grades Lean (6.2, +442), Cody Bellinger grades Lean (5.5, +500), and Trent Grisham grades Lean (5.3, +520), all three riding the same short-porch-plus-vulnerable-starter setup carrying García and Jones into the top four.
- Colorado's one lineup-wide standout vs. Jake Irvin (COL @ WSH, Nationals Park, confirmed lineup) — Zac Veen grades Lean (5.2, +526), the only Rockie whose absolute score clears the bar even as the whole lineup shows a price gap (see above).
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on William Contreras today.Jake Bauers is the model's single highest-rated name on the board, and if a sportsbook opens a line on him with the Brewers' lineup confirmed, he's worth another look — but as of this writing there's no market to bet him on at all, and the Citi Field forecast carries real postponement risk. Contreras is the best process I can actually act on: same Manaea mismatch driving Bauers, a live +567 at Novig that's already beating our model's consensus check by 3.1 points, and a lineup spot (batting cleanup) that isn't likely to move even if the Brewers' card isn't technically locked yet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ WSH | 1:05 PM | Gabriel Hughes vs. Jake Irvin | Confirmed |
| BAL @ STL | 2:15 PM | Trevor Rogers vs. Gordon Graceffo | Confirmed |
| HOU @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Hayden Wesneski vs. Gerrit Cole | Projected |
| MIL @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Sean Manaea | Projected |
| KC @ TOR | 7:07 PM | Noah Cameron vs. Spencer Arrighetti | Projected |
| LAD @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chris Sale | Projected |
| AZ @ SF | 9:45 PM | Jose Cabrera vs. Landen Roupp | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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