Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday brings a full 15-game MLB slate with all 30 teams in action and no doubleheaders.
None of today's five highest-scored hitters clear the model's own market-value check. The best price plays come from further down the board, headlined by a Red Sox catcher and a trio of Rays and Mets bats the model likes against tonight's starters.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Thursday, September 3.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Nelson Velázquez Home Run Prop vs. Luis Castillo
Velázquez grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.2% probability and +350 fair odds — the top score on Thursday's slate.
He's barreling 25% of his batted balls with a 96 mph average exit velocity, and the model likes his fastball matchup against Castillo enough to flag the White Sox right-hander as one of two vulnerable starters in this game. The one soft spot is a real one — he's struggled against changeups, which Castillo throws 15% of the time — but the overall profile is clean enough to top the board anyway.
No sportsbook has posted a number on this prop as of this run.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +350 (22.2%)
- Best Available Odds: N/A — no market posted
2. Heriberto Hernández Home Run Prop vs. Michael Wacha
Hernández grades Elite at 7.3, with a 21.3% probability and +371 fair odds.
He's barreling 20% of his batted balls at 88.1 mph off the bat, and Kauffman Stadium's forecast is doing real work underneath that — 99-degree heat is adding roughly 26 feet of carry on a Wacha start the model already grades as exploitable. The lone concern is a documented weakness against changeups, which Wacha leans on 25% of the time.
+358 at Prophet X falls 2.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +371 (21.3%)
- Best Available Odds: +358 at Prophet X
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Prop vs. Logan Henderson
Crow-Armstrong grades Elite at 7.2, with a 21.1% probability and +374 fair odds.
He's punishing fastballs to the tune of 4.8 points above his own baseline, and Henderson throws one 46% of the time — a direct, repeatable matchup rather than a small-sample blip. Elite exit velo, barrel rate and bat speed all point the same direction, and his last 30 days are trending up on top of it. The one blemish is a weakness against cutters.
+300 at Hard Rock falls 5.9 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — the market has already caught up to this one.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +374 (21.1%)
- Best Available Odds: +300 at Hard Rock
4. Cal Raleigh Home Run Prop vs. Jack Perkins
Raleigh grades Strong at 7.0, with a 20.6% probability and +386 fair odds.
He's barreling an eye-catching 32% of his batted balls over his last month at 93.5 mph average exit velo, and the fastball matchup against Perkins is the plus here. The one drag on the number is the weather working against him rather than for him — cooler conditions tonight are trimming roughly 10 feet off what would otherwise carry out.
+355 at Novig falls 3.6 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +386 (20.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +355 at Novig
5. Munetaka Murakami Home Run Prop vs. Hunter Brown
Murakami grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20.1% probability and +399 fair odds.
He's the other side of today's marquee matchup — Brown is the second of the two vulnerable arms in the White Sox-Astros game, and Murakami's fastball edge is real even with his recent contact rate cooling off a touch from his season number. The dome environment is the one thing working against him, docking his number for lack of any weather assist.
+471 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 1.1 percentage points.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +399 (20.1%)
- Best Available Odds: +471 at Novig
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Murakami already clears that bar above. Here are the best values elsewhere on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Saggese | vs. LAD | 5.3 | +1000 at Hard Rock | +5.9 pts |
| Cam Smith | vs. CWS | 6.4 | +680 at FanDuel | +5.4 pts |
| Jesús Sánchez | vs. CLE | 5.7 | +700 at Novig | +4.0 pts |
| Nolan Gorman | vs. LAD | 6.3 | +525 at BetMGM | +2.8 pts |
| Taylor Trammell | vs. CWS | 6.1 | +614 at Novig | +2.5 pts |
| Mickey Gasper | vs. BAL | 6.0 | +583 at Polymarket | +2.3 pts |
Cam Smith owns the best combination of score and value on the board. His raw power grades as ordinary, but a real slider edge against Castillo — flagged by the model as a specific pitch Castillo is grooving too often — and a +680 price at FanDuel that's still 5.4 percentage points better than fair make this the value play worth building around.
Thomas Saggese is the extreme case: a modest 5.3 score, but a +1000 price at Hard Rock that's the longest number on today's board relative to what the model thinks is fair. Nolan Gorman gives the Cardinals a second angle in the same game against Tarik Skubal, while Sánchez, Trammell and Gasper round out three more games with real, if smaller, edges attached.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Red Sox at Orioles (Jake Bennett)
This game works from both sides. Christian Encarnacion-Strand punishes changeups specifically against Bennett — a 7.2-point edge over his baseline — while Boston's Mickey Gasper is riding a genuinely hot bat into a tired Baltimore bullpen. Pete Alonso still grades Strong in his own right, though his own recent contact has cooled enough that the market at +344 is already ahead of the model's +458 number.
Brewers at Cubs (Logan Henderson and Kevin Gausman)
Crow-Armstrong headlines above, but this is the deepest game on the board — five hitters in today's top 30. Jackson Chourio and Michael Conforto both get a lift from Gausman being flagged as a vulnerable, gopher-ball-prone arm today, while Seiya Suzuki adds a third Cubs bat working the same fastball-heavy attack against Henderson.
Rays at Rangers (Shane McClanahan and Cal Quantrill)
Jake Burger is the headliner here on a genuine hot streak — rising 30-day barrel and exit-velo numbers — but the more interesting angle is on the Rays' side, where Junior Caminero's splitter edge against Quantrill is real even though his own recent contact is cooling off.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Cam Smith to hit a home run at +680 at FanDuel is my favorite bet on Thursday's slate.
Smith isn't near the top of the board by raw score, and his overall power output this year is ordinary by big-league standards, but this is a case where a specific, repeatable pitch problem lines up with a real price. The model has already flagged Castillo's slider as a pitch he's leaving over the plate too often against Houston's right-handed bats, Smith's own edge on that pitch is 4.4 points above his baseline, and the number still sits 5.4 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair. That combination of a concrete mechanical reason and a market that hasn't caught up is worth paying attention to.
Thomas Saggese offers a similar edge at a much longer price for bettors who'd rather chase raw expected value than model conviction.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at PIT | 12:35 p.m. | Blade Tidwell vs. Bachar | Projected |
| TOR at CLE | 1:10 p.m. | José Soriano vs. Tanner Bibee | Projected |
| CWS at HOU | 2:10 p.m. | Luis Castillo vs. Hunter Brown | Projected |
| BOS at BAL | 7:15 p.m. | Jake Bennett vs. Brandon Young | Projected |
| MIL at CHC | 7:15 p.m. | Logan Henderson vs. Kevin Gausman | Projected |
| MIA at KC | 7:40 p.m. | Sandy Alcantara vs. Michael Wacha | Projected |
| TB at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Shane McClanahan vs. Cal Quantrill | Projected |
| ATH at SEA | 9:40 p.m. | Jack Perkins vs. Kade Anderson | Projected |
| STL at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Quinn Mathews vs. Tarik Skubal | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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