Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday's slate spans 15 games, all of them starting between 6:40 p.m. and 9:40 p.m. ET.
None of tonight's projected lineups are official yet, so treat every matchup below as subject to change once your sportsbook's card goes final.
Three Orioles bats hold down the top three spots on the board, all facing Mets left-hander Sean Manaea at Citi Field. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Pete Alonso share the top score at 8.4, with teammate Coby Mayo right behind them at 8.2 — the deepest single-pitcher stack on tonight's slate. Elsewhere, Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz is riding the hottest recent stretch of anyone on the board: a 48% barrel rate over his last 30 days, nearly double his season mark.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Tuesday, September 15.
Best Home Run Predictions Today (Sep. 11)
1. Christian Encarnacion-Strand Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Encarnacion-Strand grades Elite at 8.4, with a 24.0% probability and +316 fair odds — tied for the top score on tonight's 15-game slate, and the first of three Orioles plugged into tonight's Citi Field matchup with Manaea.
His exit velocity has actually cooled to 85.5 mph over his last 30 days, down from 89.9 mph for the season, but Manaea's fastball — 38% of his mix — is the pitch he's done the most damage against, and it's the same edge driving all three Baltimore bats in this game. Citi Field's forecast tonight (67°F, wind blowing out to left) adds a modest 6 feet of extra carry.
+456 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 4.7 percentage points — the widest gap of the three Orioles in this matchup.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +316 (24.0%)
- Best Available Odds: +456 at Novig
2. Pete Alonso Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Alonso grades Elite at 8.4 as well, with a 23.9% probability and +319 fair odds — tied with Encarnacion-Strand atop the board.
He carries an elite bat-speed grade and the same fastball edge against Manaea as his teammates, though his own recent form has cooled alongside the rest of Baltimore's lineup — an 86.2 mph average exit velocity over the last 30 days, down from 92.1 mph for the season.
The market has already caught up to it, though: +318 at Polymarket falls 1.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +319 (23.9%)
- Best Available Odds: +318 at Polymarket
3. Coby Mayo Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Mayo grades Elite at 8.2, with a 23.6% probability and +324 fair odds — the third and final Oriole tied to tonight's Manaea matchup.
Unlike his two teammates above, Mayo is trending up: his barrel rate sits at 16% over the last 30 days, matching his season mark, and his exit velocity has climbed to 90.9 mph in that stretch. The same fastball edge applies here too; Manaea's sinker, thrown about a fifth of the time, is the one caution.
+380 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 1.6 percentage points.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +324 (23.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +380 at Polymarket
4. Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Prop vs. Kyle Freeland
Tatis grades Elite at 7.9, with a 22.7% probability and +340 fair odds.
His exit velocity has actually ticked up to 95 mph over his last 30 days, above a 94.1 mph season mark that was already elite, with a bat speed the model flags as elite as well. Coors Field's forecast tonight (76°F, 12 mph blowing out to left-center) projects over 16 feet of extra carry, one of the bigger weather boosts on the board.
The market is already there, though: +357 at Polymarket falls 0.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — about as tight a gap as exists on tonight's board.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +340 (22.7%)
- Best Available Odds: +357 at Polymarket
5. Elly De La Cruz Home Run Prop vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
De La Cruz grades Elite at 7.7, with a 22.2% probability and +352 fair odds.
He's in the middle of the hottest stretch of anyone on tonight's board: a 48% barrel rate over his last 30 days — nearly double his already-strong 25.6% season mark — with his average exit velocity up to 104.1 mph in that same window. Great American Ball Park sits at a scorching 94°F tonight, with the warm air alone adding real carry on top of an already loaded profile.
+499 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 4.5 percentage points.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +352 (22.2%)
- Best Available Odds: +499 at Polymarket
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
Jose Siri and Riley Greene round out tonight's Elite tier with real value of their own — Siri's +5.7-point edge at +586 DraftKings is actually the widest gap of any Elite-tier hitter on the board, ahead of even Encarnacion-Strand above. Here are the best values further down the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adael Amador | vs. SD | 5.8 (Lean) | +1011 at Novig | +7.4 pts |
| Elias Díaz | vs. BOS | 5.3 (Lean) | +809 at Novig | +4.6 pts |
| Sean Murphy | vs. CHC | 5.8 (Lean) | +669 at Novig | +3.5 pts |
| Brett Baty | vs. BAL | 5.3 (Lean) | +680 at FanDuel | +2.7 pts |
| Nolan Gorman | vs. SF | 6.5 (Strong) | +525 at Novig | +2.3 pts |
| Josue De Paula | vs. CIN | 5.9 (Lean) | +575 at Hard Rock | +2.0 pts |
Adael Amador owns both the widest gap on the board outside the Elite tier and the longest price of the day at +1011 Novig, in the same Coors Field game as Tatis above. Nolan Gorman and teammate Alec Burleson give the Cardinals two looks at Blade Tidwell, while Sean Murphy gives Atlanta a second angle against Kevin Gausman alongside Austin Riley below.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Dodgers at Reds (mutual vulnerable arms)
Teoscar Hernández and Elly De La Cruz headline this one above from opposite dugouts. Los Angeles stacks even deeper against Rhett Lowder: Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Will Smith all carry real angles, with Betts (6.3, Strong) and Josue De Paula rounding out the Dodgers' side underneath Hernández.
Padres at Rockies (mutual vulnerable arms)
Fernando Tatis Jr. leads San Diego's side above, and Manny Machado adds a second real look at 6.8 against Freeland, though the market at +337 Polymarket has already priced in most of his edge. Colorado answers back with Adael Amador, detailed above.
Cardinals at Giants (Blade Tidwell)
Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson both grade real against Tidwell, and Leo Bernal adds a third Cardinals look that has no market price posted yet.
Braves at Cubs (Kevin Gausman)
Austin Riley and catcher Sean Murphy both carry genuine edges against Gausman, at +525 BetMGM and +669 Novig respectively.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Christian Encarnacion-Strand to hit a home run at +456 at Novig is my favorite bet on Tuesday's slate.
He shares the board's top score with teammate Pete Alonso, but the price gap is what sets them apart — Alonso's market has already caught up, while Encarnacion-Strand's hasn't. The fastball edge driving this Baltimore stack against Manaea is real, and Citi Field's mild out-blowing wind adds a touch of carry on top of it. The price still sits 4.7 percentage points above what the model considers fair.
Jose Siri offers the single widest edge among tonight's six Elite names, at +586 DraftKings, for bettors who'd rather chase the bigger gap over the higher score.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at CIN | 6:40 p.m. | Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Rhett Lowder | Projected |
| ATH at TB | 6:40 p.m. | Jack Perkins vs. Griffin Jax | Projected |
| CWS at CLE | 6:40 p.m. | Chris Murphy vs. Foster Griffin | Projected |
| MIL at PIT | 6:40 p.m. | Jacob Misiorowski vs. Lake Bachar | Projected |
| PHI at WSH | 6:45 p.m. | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Jackson Kent | Projected |
| DET at TOR | 7:07 p.m. | Drew Anderson vs. Braydon Fisher | Projected |
| BAL at NYM | 7:10 p.m. | Shane Baz vs. Sean Manaea | Projected |
| NYY at MIN | 7:40 p.m. | Max Fried vs. Bailey Ober | Projected |
| ATL at CHC | 7:40 p.m. | Martín Pérez vs. Kevin Gausman | Projected |
| SF at STL | 7:45 p.m. | Blade Tidwell vs. Andre Pallante | Projected |
| BOS at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Patrick Sandoval vs. Jacob deGrom | Projected |
| KC at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Michael Wacha vs. Hunter Brown | Projected |
| SD at COL | 8:40 p.m. | Walker Buehler vs. Kyle Freeland | Projected |
| SEA at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Logan Gilbert vs. Ryan Johnson | Projected |
| MIA at AZ | 9:40 p.m. | Janson Junk vs. Michael Soroka | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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