We've got 15 games on tonight's slate, and the RotoBombs board is tilted toward the late West Coast window. Five of today's top 10 graded bets come from the same Angel Stadium game, and the top four picks overall are split between just three ballparks.
It's a tough slate for value. Our model is flagging a few true power hitters at the top, and the books are in agreement, making it difficult to find juice on these picks. Still, our model projects them as the most likely players to homer today at long odds.
Here's where our home run betting model, RotoBombs, is pointing for Tuesday, August 11. Keep reading to see our best value bets for tonight and use our home run model for yourself.
⚾ Track every home run bet you place with our MLB Home Run Tracker.
Best MLB Home Run Props Today (August 11, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So, you should stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and weather are adding to it or fighting against it.
Like I said, keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to give you more details on a player or game you're looking to bet on.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch, since forecasts can shift.
1. Joc Pederson (TEX) vs. Ryan Johnson (LAA)
Pederson tops today's board, an Elite 7.6 grade (21.9%, fair odds +356) against Angels righty Ryan Johnson. RotoBombs flags a real cutter matchup here and good exit velocity underneath it, with Angel Stadium running warm tonight and the wind blowing out. Pederson isn't the lone Rangers bat that likes this matchup, either -- more on that below.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +356 (21.9% probability)
Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +256 (28%)
Park & Weather: Angel Stadium · 80°F · 8 mph out · 0% rain
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
Alvarez grades out Elite (7.4, 21.4%, +367) against Giants lefty Carson Whisenhunt, with the model flagging elite bat speed and a four-seam edge against a pitcher still establishing himself. Oracle Park is no one's idea of a hitter's haven, but a matchup grade this clean travels fine even in a pitcher's park.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +367 (21.4%)
Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +366 (21.4%)
Park & Weather: Oracle Park · 65°F · 10 mph out · 0% rain
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Michael Wacha (KC)
Ohtani checks in Elite (7.3, 21.3%, +370) against Royals righty Michael Wacha at Dodger Stadium, RotoBombs pointing to a real changeup edge even as the model flags him as cooling off recently. That's a matchup grade holding up against a recent-form knock, not one riding a hot streak.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +370 (21.2%)
Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +219 (31.3%)
Park & Weather: Dodger Stadium · 78°F · 9 mph out · 1% precipitation
4. Cam Smith (HOU) vs. Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
HELLO, VALUE! Not many of these guys today, but Cam Smith's red-hot bat is beloved by the model, despite the books disagreeing. Smith is the second Astros bat grading out Elite against Whisenhunt tonight (7.2, 20.9%, +378), right behind Alvarez — the same good-EV, elite-bat-speed, four-seam-edge profile showing up twice in the same lineup against the same arm.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +378 (20.9%)
Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +625 (13.7%)
Park & Weather: Oracle Park · 65°F · 10 mph out · 0% rain
5. Corbin Carroll (AZ) vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
Carroll grades out Strong (6.8, 20.1%, +397) at home against Rockies righty Tomoyuki Sugano, with elite bat speed and a splitter edge offsetting a four-seam trouble flag and a cooling-off note. A dome game, so no weather factor either way — this one's purely on the matchup.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +397 (20.1%)
Consensus Sportsbook Odds: +330 (23.2%)
Park & Weather: Chase Field · Dome
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge
The model above predicts who is most likely to hit a home run. It does not consider odds. These are the batters the model flagged with the most value, giving you the sharpest edge against the book based on the same data used to find the names above.
- Elias Diaz (TEX)
- Our Odds: +456 (17.9%)
- The Books: +700 (12.5%)
- James McCann (ARI)
- Our Odds: +436 (18.6%)
- The Books: +560 (15.1%)
- Hunter Feduccia (TB)
- Our Odds: +536 (15.7%)
- The Books: +750 (11.7%)
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Today's Full MLB Slate & Weather
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Park Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ MIA | 6:40 PM | Paul Skenes vs. Eury Pérez | Dome |
| CLE @ DET | 6:40 PM | Tanner Bibee vs. Drew Anderson | 77°F, 6 mph R-L, 27% rain |
| CHC @ WSH | 6:45 PM | Shota Imanaga vs. Jake Irvin | 86°F, 7 mph, 36% rain |
| SEA @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Bryan Woo vs. Ryan Weathers | 84°F, 6 mph out, 28% precip |
| BOS @ TOR | 7:07 PM | Patrick Sandoval vs. Dylan Cease | Dome |
| NYM @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Nolan McLean vs. Martín Pérez | 86°F, 7 mph cross, 23% precip |
| CIN @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Nick Lodolo vs. Sean Burke | 78°F, 6 mph in, 16% precip |
| BAL @ MIN | 7:40 PM | Brandon Young vs. Bailey Ober | 85°F, 3 mph, 3% precip |
| PHI @ STL | 7:45 PM | Cristopher Sánchez vs. Andre Pallante | 97°F, 8 mph out, 2% rain |
| TEX @ LAA | 9:38 PM | Cody Bradford vs. Ryan Johnson | 80°F, 8 mph out, 0% |
| TB @ ATH | 9:40 PM | Nick Martinez vs. Mason Barnett | 91°F, 9 mph, 1% precip |
| MIL @ SD | 9:40 PM | Kyle Harrison vs. Walker Buehler | 74°F, 8 mph cross, 0% |
| COL @ ARI | 9:40 PM | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Mitch Bratt | Dome |
| HOU @ SF | 9:45 PM | Hunter Brown vs. Carson Whisenhunt | 65°F, 10 mph out, 0% |
| KC @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Michael Wacha vs. Blake Snell | 78°F, 9 mph out, 1% precip |
⚾ For confirmed lineups and live weather through first pitch, check RotoWire's MLB Lineups page.
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