Looking for the best home run props today? Our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is having a great week. On Monday, four of its top-five batters went yard.
Here's where our home run picks model is pointing for Tuesday, August 18. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 18, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability — not a value or edge ranking. See the Best Edge section below for that.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.8/10
- RotoBombs Probability: 24.9%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +302
Ohtani and the Dodgers are back in Coors with a soft matchup, so naturally here we are with Shohei at No. 1. Ohtani is barreling 15.3% of his batted balls and averaging 93.5 mph off the bat over the past month. Feltner leans on his slider about 24% of the time, and it's the pitch Ohtani does the most damage against — roughly 0.7 points above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting barreled all year.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +302 (24.9% probability)
2. Max Muncy (LAD) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.6/10
- RotoBombs Probability: 21.9%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +356
Not a shock to see another Dodger here. This duo did it last night, and they have a very similar projection tonight. Muncy's barreling 16.1% of his batted balls and averaging 92 mph off the bat over the past month. Feltner's slider — 24% of his mix — is Muncy's best matchup pitch by a wide margin, about 4 points above his own baseline.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +356 (21.9% probability)
3. Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Kyle Harrison (MIL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.1/10
- RotoBombs Probability: 20.7%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +384
Is it finally time for the Big Dumper to get hot? He's the home run predictions model's first non-Dodger, and he's coming off a homer just yesterday. Raleigh's barreling 16.1% of his batted balls and averaging 91.2 mph off the bat over the past month, with his recent swings looking even better than that. Roughly 31% of what Harrison throws is the slurve — Raleigh's best matchup pitch, about 3.2 points above his own baseline — and Harrison's been giving up loud contact lately, too. The counter: he's struggled against the four-seam, which is 57% of Harrison's mix. The model projects a hanging slurve will go a long way in one of his ABs.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +384 (20.7% probability)
4. Mookie Betts (LAD) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.9/10
- RotoBombs Probability: 20.4%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +391
One of the five-best +EV bats on the slate, Mookie is slightly below the other two Dodgers in the top five. Betts's power grades out about league average — 6.6% barrel rate, 90.5 mph average off the bat — but the matchup is doing real work: Feltner's slider is again the culprit, about 0.5 points above Betts's own baseline against a pitch that's been getting hit hard. He's had trouble with the sinker, which is a smaller slice (14%) of what Feltner throws.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +391 (20.4% probability)
5. Jo Adell (CLE) vs. Carson Whisenhunt (SF)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7/10
- RotoBombs Probability: 19.9%
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +404
Finally, we're out of LA, though Hunter Feduccia was in this projection early but the tool is dynamic throughout the day and shifted Adell to a top-five spot. The former Angel is barreling 16.9% of his batted balls and averaging 91.2 mph off the bat over the past month, and he's squaring it up even more lately. Whisenhunt goes to his changeup about 38% of the time, and it's the pitch Adell hits hardest — roughly 2.6 points above his own baseline — and Whisenhunt has been getting hit hard lately, too.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +404 (19.9% probability)
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, not a guess: it compares each hitter's real fair odds tonight against his "usual" RotoBombs price — what he'd price at on talent alone, with tonight's specific pitcher, park, and weather stripped back out to neutral. A big gap means tonight's matchup is doing real work to shorten his price versus what he'd normally get.
Betts is already in this list, at the third-best +EV. Since he's mentioned above, here's a loot at the others:
- Hunter Feduccia: usual +690 → +405 tonight, right alongside the rest of tonight's LA lineup.
- Jose Siri: usual +583 → +406 tonight,
- Teoscar Hernández: usual price +747 → +411 tonight, the widest gap on the slate.
- Andy Pages: usual +734 → +429 tonight.
Outside the Dodgers-Rockies game, a few other real gaps worth knowing about: Zac Veen (usual +650 → +411 tonight, gap 239) grades well on paper, but there's a real lineup wrinkle here — Veen has sat out both of his starts against left-handed pitching since his recall, and tonight's Dodgers starter, Eric Lauer, is a lefty. Treat his spot in the lineup as genuinely uncertain rather than a confirmed source of value, gap notwithstanding. Dominic Canzone (usual +610 → +420, gap 190) is a cleaner version of the same idea in another game.
One name that does NOT clear the bar despite a Strong grade: Matt Olson. He's Strong tier (6.5, +419) riding a 36-homer season into tonight's game, but his gap is only 96 points, the smallest of any name mentioned here — he's an elite hitter regardless of matchup, so tonight's context adds less relative lift for him than it does for a more matchup-dependent bat.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Jac Caglianone (KC) vs. Jack Perkins (ATH @ KC, Kauffman Stadium) — Jac Caglianone grades Strong (6.7, +407) and is red-hot doing it: he's hitting .424 with five homers over his last 15 games, the best form of anyone on tonight's board outside the top five.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) vs. Zack Wheeler (MIA @ PHI, Citizens Bank Park) — Griffin Conine grades Strong (6.5, +423). He only sits against lefties, and Wheeler's a righty, so tonight's start is about as close to a lock as an unconfirmed lineup gets. Conine's gone deep three times in his last three games.
- Austin Riley (ATL) vs. Zebby Matthews (ATL @ MIN, Target Field) — Austin Riley grades Strong (6.4, +424), part of an Atlanta lineup that's produced all night behind Matt Olson's power surge.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Jo Adell tonight. He's the one name in today's top five outside the Dodgers-Rockies game, and the process behind him is just as clean: Carson Whisenhunt goes to his changeup 38% of the time, it's the pitch getting hit hardest across the league lately, and it's also the exact pitch Adell does his best damage against. Whisenhunt throws left-handed, and Adell has hit left-handed pitching noticeably better than right-handed pitching for three straight seasons now — a real, repeatable platoon edge, not a one-matchup fluke. He's been an everyday presence in Cleveland's lineup since the trade-deadline move brought him over, with zero health questions attached, and he's gone deep in back-to-back games as recently as last week.
Clean process, clean platoon matchup, clean health status.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY @ BAL | 6:35 PM | Carlos Rodón vs. Shane Baz | Projected |
| DET @ PIT | 6:40 PM | Keider Montero vs. Braxton Ashcraft | Projected |
| SF @ CLE | 6:40 PM | Carson Whisenhunt vs. Foster Griffin | Projected |
| STL @ CIN | 6:40 PM | Kyle Leahy vs. Andrew Abbott | Projected |
| TOR @ TB | 6:40 PM | José Soriano vs. Nick Martinez | Projected |
| MIA @ PHI | 6:40 PM | Cade Gibson vs. Zack Wheeler | Projected |
| AZ @ BOS | 7:10 PM | Merrill Kelly vs. Ranger Suárez | Projected |
| SD @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Robbie Ray vs. Zac Thornton | Projected |
| ATH @ KC | 7:40 PM | Jack Perkins vs. TBD | Projected |
| ATL @ MIN | 7:40 PM | Tyler Mahle vs. Zebby Matthews | Projected |
| SEA @ MIL | 7:40 PM | Bryce Miller vs. Kyle Harrison | Projected |
| WSH @ TEX | 8:05 PM | Jackson Kent vs. Cal Quantrill | Projected |
| CWS @ CHC | 8:05 PM | TBD vs. Kevin Gausman | Projected |
| LAA @ HOU | 8:10 PM | George Klassen vs. Cristian Javier | Projected |
| LAD @ COL | 8:40 PM | Eric Lauer vs. Ryan Feltner | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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