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Use our data-driven home run betting tool to find the best home run props for Tuesday, August 25.
Here's where our MLB home run picks model, RotoBombs, is pointing today.
Scroll to the bottom of the page if you want to use the tool and research your best home run bets.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today (August 25, 2026): 5 Most Likely Homers
Here are today's top home run picks from the model's power ranking. Our model determines the batters who are most likely to homer based on a robust blend of batted ball data, matchup data, recent form, park factors, weather, projected plate appearances, bullpen strength, and more.
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1. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Jacob deGrom (TEX)
- RotoBombs Grade: 8.3
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +320
- Best Sportsbook Odds: Not yet posted
Murakami bats second for the White Sox — that's his everyday spot in the order, so there's no lineup guesswork with this one. He's been elite in the two categories that matter most for this model: a 94.3 mph average exit velocity and a 22.1% barrel rate over his last 30 days. DeGrom's four-seamer is 42% of his mix, and it's the exact pitch Murakami has done the most damage against relative to his own baseline. Rate Field cuts against him some — it suppresses home runs — but the swing profile and the pitch-matchup edge are enough to make him the highest-graded play on the board.
2. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Will Warren (NYY)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.9
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +339
- Best Sportsbook Odds: Not yet posted
Alvarez checks every box in the model's power profile: 93.9 mph average exit velocity, elite bat speed at 76.4 mph, and a 47.2% pull rate, all in the "elite" tier. Warren's four-seamer, 37% of his mix, is the pitch Alvarez has punished most this month. Yankee Stadium is the most hitter-friendly park in play tonight by a wide margin, and that park boost is doing real work in his grade.
3. Jose Siri (LAA) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.5
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +359
- Best Sportsbook Odds: Not yet posted
Siri's sample is thinner than the two names above him — 37 batted-ball events over the last 30 days — but an 18.9% barrel rate and a 51.4% pull rate are both elite marks, and his line is trending up over his last 30 days rather than cooling off. Williams' fastball, 26% of his mix, is the pitch he's hit best. Angel Stadium conditions tonight also help the ball carry.
4. Eduardo Valencia (DET) vs. Ian Seymour (TB)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.4
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +367
- Best Sportsbook Odds: Not yet posted
Valencia's power grade is pulled hard toward league average by a small sample (39 balls in play), and the model flags that plainly rather than hiding it. Even after that regression, a 20.5% barrel rate and a 53.8% pull rate are elite, and Seymour's fastball — 27% of his mix — is his best matchup pitch. The one thing working against him: Comerica Park's conditions tonight cut against the ball carrying, which is also plainly reflected in his fair odds relative to his raw power.
5. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Bryce Elder (ATL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.3
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +369
- Best Sportsbook Odds: Not yet posted
Ohtani gets credit across the board — elite exit velocity, elite bat speed, elite barrels — and Elder's sinker (28% of his mix) is the pitch he's done the most damage against this month, well above his own baseline. Truist Park conditions tonight also help the ball carry. The one flag on the profile: he's cooling off some over his last 30 days, and he's shown trouble against cutters specifically, which isn't Elder's primary weapon but is worth knowing.
Today's Home Run Picks with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Christian Franklin (BAL)| BetMGM +1500 → RotoBombs +694
- Ildemaro Vargas (ARI) | DraftKings +1860 → RotoBombs +904
- Ke'Bryan Hayes (CIN)| BetMGM +1500 → RotoBombs +728
- Luis Arraez (PHI) | FanDuel +1700 → RotoBombs +874
- Christian Koss (SF) | BetMGM +1700 → RotoBombs +893
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Tyler Glasnow (LAD) — projected into Atlanta's lineup, in the same game as Ohtani above. Elite barrel rate and bat speed, with a pitch-mix edge against Glasnow specifically.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) vs. Paul Skenes (PIT) — Pittsburgh's bullpen carries a fatigue flag tonight, which works in Merrill's favor if Skenes doesn't finish the Padres off himself.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. George Kirby (SEA) — still shows up even without a favorable park, on power alone.
Pitch Hunters Today: Who's Sitting on the Pitcher's Best Pitch
Pitch Hunters is the tool's term for a batter with strong recorded data against a pitcher's single most-used pitch — specifically, that pitch has to make up 40% or more of the pitcher's mix.
- Zack Gelof (ATH) vs. Taj Bradley (MIN) — Bradley's cutter usage sits above 40%, and it's the pitch Gelof has hit best.
- Gavin Sheets (SD) vs. Paul Skenes (PIT) — carries a tired-bullpen flag in the same game as Merrill above.
- Tim Tawa (AZ) vs. Clay Holmes (CHC) — Holmes leans heavily on one pitch, and Tawa's data against it stands out.
- Luis Torrens (NYM) vs. Kyle Harrison (MIL) — flagged for a sweeper-usage edge, though he's shown trouble against sweepers specifically elsewhere, worth weighing both ways.
- Rafael Devers (SF) vs. Brady Singer (CIN) — Singer's slider is a real strength for Devers, even with some sinker trouble in his broader profile.
Zone Mix Today: Where Contact, Pitch Selection and Power Overlap
Zone Mix blends where a hitter's batted balls tend to land, which pitches the opposing pitcher actually throws, and how much power the hitter shows specifically in the zones that pitch mix funnels into.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) vs. Ian Seymour (TB) — a sweeper-usage edge lines up with where he does damage.
- Jose Caballero (NYM) vs. Ethan Pecko (HOU) — flagged for a fastball-edge overlap, with some curveball trouble elsewhere in his profile.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI) — a knuckle-curve edge against a pitcher the model also flags as vulnerable tonight.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm leaning toward Munetaka Murakami tonight. Normally this section is about a mispriced number — a gap between what a sportsbook is offering and what the model says is fair. Books haven't posted lines yet today, so I can't make that argument the way I usually do. What I can say is that Murakami clears the board on every input the model weighs: hitter power, pitch matchup and pitcher vulnerability all grade out ahead of the four names below him, and it's a "high confidence" read rather than a projected-lineup guess propped up by one strong category. If a book posts him anywhere near even money to the field favorites once lines go up, that's the one I'd look at first.
Use Our MLB Home Run Props Tool
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You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DET | 6:40 PM | Ian Seymour vs. Jackson Jobe | Projected |
| BOS @ MIA | 6:40 PM | Payton Tolle vs. TBD | Projected |
| COL @ WSH | 6:45 PM | TBD vs. Andrew Alvarez | Projected |
| HOU @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Ethan Pecko vs. Will Warren | Projected |
| KC @ TOR | 7:07 PM | Seth Lugo vs. Max Scherzer | Projected |
| MIL @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Kyle Harrison vs. Zac Thornton | Projected |
| LAD @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Tyler Glasnow vs. Bryce Elder | Projected |
| TEX @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Jacob deGrom vs. Anthony Kay | Projected |
| BAL @ STL | 7:45 PM | Chris Bassitt vs. TBD | Projected |
| CLE @ LAA | 9:38 PM | Gavin Williams vs. Walbert Ureña | Projected |
| CHC @ AZ | 9:40 PM | Clay Holmes vs. Brandon Pfaadt | Projected |
| PIT @ SD | 9:40 PM | Paul Skenes vs. Michael King | Projected |
| MIN @ ATH | 9:40 PM | Taj Bradley vs. Gage Jump | Projected |
| PHI @ SEA | 9:40 PM | Aaron Nola vs. George Kirby | Projected |
| CIN @ SF | 9:45 PM | Brady Singer vs. Adrian Houser | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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