Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday brings a full 15-game MLB slate with all 30 teams in action and no doubleheaders.
None of today's five highest-scored hitters clear the model's own market-value check. The best price plays come from further down the board, headlined by a Red Sox catcher and a trio of Rays and Mets bats the model likes against tonight's starters.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Tuesday, September 1.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Prop vs. Nick Lodolo
Tatis grades Elite at 9.0, with a 25.5% probability and +292 fair odds — the top score on Tuesday's slate.
He's barreling 18.9% of his batted balls and averaging 93 mph off the bat over the past month, real thump backed by both power signals and a favorable fastball matchup against Lodolo. The one blemish is a documented weakness against sinkers, which cuts against an otherwise clean profile, and Great American's 97-degree heat is doing more work here than the wind, which is only blowing 6 mph across.
+323 at Kalshi falls 1.8 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +292 (25.5%)
- Best Available Odds: +323 at Kalshi
2. Junior Caminero Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Caminero grades Elite at 8.4, with a 23.9% probability and +318 fair odds.
He's barreling 12.5% of his batted balls, and the model flags Manaea as a vulnerable starter tonight, but the swing has cooled off the last couple weeks after an elite exit-velocity base. The roof is projected in and the wind is only blowing 3 mph in from center with rain in the picture, so this one leans on the bat far more than the ballpark.
+323 at Kalshi falls 2.1 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +318 (23.9%)
- Best Available Odds: +323 at Kalshi
3. Shohei Ohtani Home Run Prop vs. Michael McGreevy
Ohtani grades Elite at 7.5, with a 21.7% probability and +360 fair odds.
He's barreling 12.7% of his batted balls, and Dodger Stadium's wind is blowing 7 mph out to right tonight for a moderate carry boost. His fastball matchup is a plus, but a documented split-finger weakness and a recent cooling trend keep this from being a clean profile against an otherwise exploitable McGreevy.
The price is the widest miss on today's board. +300 at Novig sits 6.4 percentage points below the model's threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +360 (21.7%)
- Best Available Odds: +300 at Novig
4. Juan Soto Home Run Prop vs. Freddy Peralta
Soto grades Elite at 7.4, with a 21.6% probability and +364 fair odds.
He's barreling 16.7% of his batted balls and averaging 97.8 mph off the bat, and he's carrying a hot-bat signal into a fastball matchup that favors him. His one soft spot is against changeups. Steinbrenner Field's roof is projected in with rain in the forecast, so like Caminero's game, this is a bat-driven case rather than a park-driven one.
+368 at Prophet X falls 1.5 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +364 (21.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +368 at Prophet X
5. Kenny Piper Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Piper grades Elite at 7.3, with a 21.3% probability and +370 fair odds.
He's barreling 16.7% of his batted balls with a hot-bat signal and a favorable fastball matchup against a Manaea outing the model already flags as exploitable. There's no live market on this one yet, and the lineup itself is unconfirmed, so treat this purely as a model-strength note until a book actually prices it.
No sportsbook has posted a number on this prop as of this run.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +370 (21.3%)
- Best Available Odds: N/A — no market posted
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
None of the slate's five highest-scored hitters clear that threshold today. Here are the best values on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | vs. SEA | 6.1 | +725 at BetMGM | +5.3 pts |
| Ryan Vilade | vs. NYM | 7.1 | +608 at Prophet X | +5.3 pts |
| Francisco Alvarez | vs. TB | 5.9 | +637 at Prophet X | +3.6 pts |
| Kazuma Okamoto | vs. CLE | 6.1 | +547 at Kalshi | +1.3 pts |
| Alec Burleson | vs. LAD | 6.5 | +507 at Kalshi | +1.2 pts |
| Jake Bauers | vs. CHC | 6.6 | +471 at Novig | +0.8 pts |
Mickey Gasper owns the best combination of score and value on the board. His +725 price at BetMGM is 5.3 percentage points better than the market consensus and carries a projected return of roughly 51 cents per dollar risked — the largest raw edge of the six, even though tonight's rain-softened, wind-in conditions at Fenway are working against him, not for him.
Ryan Vilade ties Gasper on edge points with a higher raw score, giving bettors who want to spread exposure a second look in the same tier. Francisco Alvarez adds a third value play in the Mets-Rays game, while Okamoto, Burleson and Bauers round out the board at smaller but still positive edges.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
White Sox at Astros (Ronel Blanco)
Miguel Vargas and Munetaka Murakami both face Blanco tonight, with the model tagging Blanco's heavy fastball usage as a plus for each of them, though neither price clears the value threshold. On the other side, Yordan Alvarez draws a fastball-slider matchup against Sean Burke that the model likes on pure contact quality, even with Daikin Park's roof projected open and the wind doing nothing to help him.
Braves at Nationals (Jake Irvin)
Matt Olson is the headliner in this one — a 19.2% barrel rate and a fastball matchup he's punished before, with Nationals Park's 97-degree heat adding roughly 20 feet of carry on its own even with the wind blowing across rather than out. The price at +284 doesn't clear the model's bar, but the underlying profile is as clean as anything else on the board tonight.
Orioles at Rockies (Gabriel Hughes)
Pete Alonso brings a 20.3% barrel rate and a fastball matchup he owns into Coors Field, though the carry benefit is capped by a 7-mph wind blowing across rather than out. Hunter Goodman gets the benefit on the other side against Baltimore's Kyle Bradish, with Coors Field's thin air still doing quiet work under both matchups even without a wind-out boost tonight.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Mickey Gasper to hit a home run at +725 at BetMGM is my favorite bet on Tuesday's slate.
Gasper is a pure market-inefficiency play rather than a weather-driven one. He's running a 25% barrel rate on his best recent contact of the season, and the model likes his fastball matchup against Bryan Woo enough to clear the value threshold by 5.3 points even with tonight's conditions — 53% rain and wind blowing in from center at Fenway — working directly against a fly-ball swing. If the model still likes the number with the park fighting him, that's the kind of edge worth paying attention to.
Ryan Vilade offers a nearly identical edge in a different game for bettors who'd rather spread the exposure.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD at CIN | 6:40 p.m. | Randy Vasquez vs. Nick Lodolo | Projected |
| NYM at TB | 6:40 p.m. | Sean Manaea vs. Freddy Peralta | Projected |
| TOR at CLE | 6:40 p.m. | Spencer Miles vs. Gavin Williams | Projected |
| SF at PIT | 6:40 p.m. | Logan Webb vs. Paul Skenes | Projected |
| ATL at WSH | 6:45 p.m. | AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Jake Irvin | Projected |
| SEA at BOS | 6:45 p.m. | Bryan Woo vs. Jedixson Paez | Projected |
| DET at MIN | 7:40 p.m. | Troy Melton vs. Andrew Morris | Projected |
| MIA at KC | 7:40 p.m. | Tyler Phillips vs. Randy Dobnak | Projected |
| MIL at CHC | 7:40 p.m. | Robert Gasser vs. Matthew Boyd | Projected |
| ATH at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Brady Basso vs. MacKenzie Gore | Projected |
| CWS at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Sean Burke vs. Ronel Blanco | Projected |
| BAL at COL | 8:40 p.m. | Kyle Bradish vs. Gabriel Hughes | Projected |
| NYY at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Gerrit Cole vs. Grayson Rodriguez | Projected |
| PHI at AZ | 9:40 p.m. | Jesus Luzardo vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | Projected |
| STL at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Michael McGreevy vs. Eric Lauer | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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