Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday brings a full 15-game slate, with first pitch at 6:35 p.m. ET in Baltimore and running through a 10:10 p.m. ET finale between the Reds and Dodgers.
Tonight's board is loaded at the top: four hitters grade Elite, double what showed up on Monday's card. The Cubs-Brewers game alone produces two of them against a struggling Jacob Misiorowski, and the Dodgers-Reds finale adds three more plus-tier bats against Nick Lodolo — the two most productive matchups on the board sit on opposite ends of tonight's slate.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Tuesday, September 8.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Teoscar Hernández Home Run Prop vs. Nick Lodolo
Hernández grades Elite at 9.2, with a 26.0% probability and +285 fair odds — the top score on tonight's 15-game slate.
He's barreling 15.2% of his batted balls at 93.5 mph over the past month, and both marks have climbed further over his last 30 days. Roughly a quarter of what Lodolo throws is the fastball, Hernández's best pitch to do damage against, and Dodger Stadium's forecast tonight — 92°F and calling for warm air — adds a little extra carry on top of an already loaded profile.
+380 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 3.1 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +285 (26.0%)
Best Available Odds: +380 at Polymarket
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Prop vs. Jacob Misiorowski
Crow-Armstrong grades Elite at 8.5, with a 24.3% probability and +312 fair odds.
He's barreling 17.8% of his batted balls at 90.7 mph over the past month, with both marks trending up recently, and Milwaukee's bullpen already shows up as tired heading into tonight. Misiorowski leans on his fastball nearly two-thirds of the time, and it's exactly the pitch Crow-Armstrong has done the most damage against — a specific matchup edge, not just a hot streak. The one caution: he's struggled against the cutter, which shows up about 14% of the time.
+506 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 5.0 percentage points — the largest gap among tonight's four Elite-tier names.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +312 (24.3%)
Best Available Odds: +506 at Novig
3. Heriberto Hernández Home Run Prop vs. Sean Manaea
Hernández grades Elite at 8.4, with a 23.9% probability and +318 fair odds.
He's barreling 17.9% of his batted balls at 89.6 mph over the past month — real power even without a hot recent stretch behind it. Manaea, already flagged as a vulnerable arm, throws his fastball about 38% of the time, and that's the pitch Hernández punishes most. The counter is the sinker, which shows up roughly a fifth of the time and is where he's struggled.
+405 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 2.3 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +318 (23.9%)
Best Available Odds: +405 at Polymarket
4. Kyle Schwarber Home Run Prop vs. Hayden Wesneski
Schwarber grades Elite at 7.6, with a 22.0% probability and +354 fair odds — the fourth-best score on the board despite a recent cooldown in his contact quality.
The market has already moved past it, though. Wesneski's sinker is a real weak spot Schwarber has punished before, and Citizens Bank Park's warm air tonight should add roughly 7 feet of carry, but none of that shows up as an overlay anymore.
+270 at Prophet X falls 7.5 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — the widest gap in the market's favor on tonight's board.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +354 (22.0%)
Best Available Odds: +270 at Prophet X
5. Michael Conforto Home Run Prop vs. Jacob Misiorowski
Conforto grades Strong at 7.1, with a 20.8% probability and +381 fair odds.
He's the second Cub plugged into tonight's Misiorowski matchup, riding the same tired-bullpen and fastball-edge read as Crow-Armstrong above, and the market hasn't caught up to either of them yet. Tuesday's Cubs lineup isn't out yet, which is the one flag worth watching before locking this in.
+650 at BetMGM clears the model's threshold by 6.0 percentage points — the largest edge of anyone in tonight's top five.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +381 (20.8%)
Best Available Odds: +650 at BetMGM
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Four of tonight's top five already clear that bar, Crow-Armstrong and Conforto leading the way at +5.0 and +6.0 points. Here are the best values further down the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes | vs. ATH | 5.6 (Lean) | +1011 at Novig | +7.0 pts |
| Esteury Ruiz | vs. NYM | 5.3 (Lean) | +980 at FanDuel | +6.4 pts |
| John Peck | vs. MIN | 5.5 (Lean) | +880 at FanDuel | +6.2 pts |
| Vaughn Grissom | vs. BOS | 4.7 (Pass) | +1233 at Novig | +5.7 pts |
| Jose Siri | vs. BOS | 6.6 (Strong) | +733 at Novig | +5.2 pts |
| Otto Lopez | vs. NYM | 5.1 (Pass) | +890 at DraftKings | +5.0 pts |
Jose Siri owns the best combination of score and value on the board outside the top five — elite barrel rate and bat speed, a genuinely hot bat, and a real sinker edge against an already-vulnerable Patrick Sandoval, all at a price 5.2 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair. Vaughn Grissom rides the same Angels-Red Sox matchup at the longest price on tonight's board.
Esteury Ruiz and Otto Lopez give Miami two more angles in the same Sean Manaea matchup that already produced Heriberto Hernández above, while Nathan Lukes and John Peck add value looks in the Blue Jays-Athletics and Twins-Tigers games.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Nationals at Padres (Casey Mize)
Washington plugs three separate Strong-tier bats into the Mize matchup — Yohandy Morales (6.8), Andrés Chaparro (6.7) and James Wood (6.5) — the deepest one-pitcher stack on tonight's board. Morales carries elite exit velocity and barrel numbers with a real slider edge, but neither he nor Chaparro has a market price posted yet, and Tuesday's Nationals lineup isn't out. Wood's price at +357 Polymarket already reflects most of his own edge.
Cubs at Brewers (Jacob Misiorowski)
Crow-Armstrong and Conforto headline this one above, and Chicago has two more looks at the same fastball-heavy, tired-bullpen matchup underneath them: Ian Happ and Pedro Ramírez each carry real +4.2-point edges at plus-900 and plus-1200. Four Cubs hitters with a genuine angle against one pitcher is unusual depth for a single game.
Twins at Tigers (mutual vulnerable arms)
Clemens headlines above for Minnesota against Anderson, but Detroit answers back: John Peck carries the largest Lean-tier edge on tonight's board at +6.2 points against Dean Kremer. Trevor Larnach and Walker Jenkins add lower-conviction value looks from the Twins' side of the same game.
Braves at Rays (Freddy Peralta)
Austin Riley grades Strong at 6.7 against Peralta, backed by real barrel and bat-speed numbers and a genuine fastball edge, but the market at +567 Novig has already priced in most of that gap — a modest 3.1-point edge on an otherwise thin night for Atlanta.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Pete Crow-Armstrong to hit a home run at +506 at Novig is my favorite bet on Tuesday's slate.
This is the rare case where the model's highest conviction and the board's biggest gap point at the same player. Crow-Armstrong carries genuinely elite contact quality into a fastball-heavy matchup against a pitcher who's been getting hit hard lately, with Milwaukee's bullpen already gassed behind him if the game gets away. The price still sits 5.0 percentage points above what the model considers fair — the largest edge among tonight's four Elite-tier names.
Conforto offers the same read at a longer price in the same game, for bettors who'd rather chase the bigger number than the higher-scoring player.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one place.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE at BAL | 6:35 p.m. | Tanner Bibee vs. Brandon Young | Projected |
| MIN at DET | 6:40 p.m. | Dean Kremer vs. Drew Anderson | Projected |
| NYM at MIA | 6:40 p.m. | Sean Manaea vs. Sandy Alcantara | Projected |
| HOU at PHI | 6:40 p.m. | Hayden Wesneski vs. Andrew Painter | Projected |
| LAA at BOS | 6:45 p.m. | Reid Detmers vs. Patrick Sandoval | Projected |
| COL at NYY | 7:05 p.m. | Gabriel Hughes vs. Cam Schlittler | Projected |
| TB at ATL | 7:15 p.m. | Freddy Peralta vs. AJ Smith-Shawver | Projected |
| PIT at CWS | 7:40 p.m. | Bubba Chandler vs. Sean Burke | Projected |
| AZ at KC | 7:40 p.m. | Corbin Burnes vs. Michael Wacha | Projected |
| CHC at MIL | 7:40 p.m. | David Peterson vs. Jacob Misiorowski | Projected |
| TOR at ATH | 9:40 p.m. | Jose Soriano vs. Jack Perkins | Projected |
| TEX at SEA | 9:40 p.m. | Cody Bradford vs. Bryce Miller | Projected |
| WSH at SD | 9:40 p.m. | Riley Cornelio vs. Casey Mize | Projected |
| STL at SF | 9:45 p.m. | Quinn Mathews vs. Landen Roupp | Projected |
| CIN at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Nick Lodolo vs. Tarik Skubal | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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