We've got 15 games on tonight's slate, and the RotoBombs board is still shaking itself out — only two lineups are actually posted this early in the day, so most of the board below is projected, not locked.
Kansas City's Jac Caglianone tops it, but the real story is a five-man Cincinnati group all grading Strong-or-better against the same White Sox arm tonight.
It's an odd slate to trust completely this early. Our model is doing its job on raw power and pitcher vulnerability, but until lineups are posted, it may project players who aren't definitively starting. Still, the matchup signals underneath them are real, and worth knowing before the lineups drop (hello, +EV).
Here's where our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is pointing for Wednesday, August 12. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Best MLB Home Run Props Today (August 12, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at.
These are the players most likely to homer. That doesn't mean they have the best value. We cover which batters carry the most value later in the article.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch — none of today's games have a forecast loaded yet, so park factor is all we've got to go on right now.
1. Jac Caglianone (KC) vs. Eric Lauer (LAD) — Projected lineup
Caglianone tops today's board, an Elite 8.3 grade (23.8%, fair odds +320) against Dodgers lefty Eric Lauer. RotoBombs flags a real four-seam edge here — his own damage against the pitch runs above his baseline, and Lauer's version of it has gotten barreled up more than most lefties' this year. He's also carrying the model's "heating up" tag over his last 25 batted balls. One thing to know: Kansas City hasn't posted its order yet, so this is a name to watch confirm, not a lock.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +320 (23.8% probability)
- Consensus Odds: +329
- EV: +2.1%
2. Junior Caminero (TB) vs. Jack Perkins (ATH)
Caminero grades out Elite (8.1, 23.3%, +330) against A's righty Jack Perkins — elite exit velocity, elite barrel rate, elite bat speed, all showing up in the same profile. The four-seam matchup's a real plus too, though there's a changeup trouble flag worth knowing about before you bet this specific outcome. Lineup's still unconfirmed as of this writing.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +330 (23.3%)
- Consensus Odds: +210
- EV: -27.8%
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Adrian Houser (SF)
Alvarez checks in Elite (7.6, 22.0%, +354) against Giants righty Adrian Houser, RotoBombs pointing to elite underlying power and a four-seam edge even with the model flagging him as cooling off relative to his own baseline. Oracle Park is still one of the tougher parks in the sport for right-handed power — this grade is holding up despite the park, not because of it.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +354 (22.0%)
- Consensus Odds: +337
- EV: -3.9%
4. Ketel Marte (AZ) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
Marte grades out Elite (7.5, 21.7%, +360) at home against Rockies righty Ryan Feltner, with a real slider edge and Feltner's contact-quality-allowed numbers running below average all year. There's a cooling-off flag attached too, so this is a matchup-and-pitcher grade, not a hot-streak one.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +360 (21.7%)
- Consensus Odds: +475
- EV: +24.8%
5. Corbin Carroll (AZ) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
Carroll's the second Diamondback grading Elite against Feltner tonight (7.3, 21.3%, +370), right behind Marte — same slider edge, same vulnerable arm, different bat. A four-seam trouble flag knocks it slightly below Marte's number, but it's still a clean Elite.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +370 (21.3%)
- Consensus Odds: +401
- EV: +6.7%
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge
These are the players with the most juice, giving you the best edge against the sportsbook. Meaning, our model projects the player is significantly more likely to hit a home run than the book.
- Tyler Stephenson (CIN)
- Our Odds: +391
- Avg Odds: +517
- Carter Jensen (KC)
- Our Odds: +377
- Avg Odds: +483
- John Rave (KC)
- Our Odds: +396
- Avg Odds: +532
This is for my value bettors. Hats off to you for being a fan of math.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The Reds stack vs. Luis Castillo (CIN @ CWS, Rate Field) — Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson, Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer, and JJ Bleday all grade Strong-tier or better against the same Castillo start tonight, Suárez's four-seam edge the standout at 44% projected usage. Five bats, one arm — that's not a coincidence. Same caveat as everything else on this list right now: it's a projected Reds order until the lineup posts.
- Pete Alonso (BAL vs. MIN, Target Field) — Grades Strong (7.1, 20.7%, +383) against Zebby Matthews on elite exit velocity, elite barrel rate, and a four-seam edge — and this one's actually confirmed, since Orioles-Twins is one of the two lineups posted so far today.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI vs. STL, Busch Stadium) — Also confirmed. Grades Elite (7.2, 20.9%, +378) against Kyle Leahy on elite power and a sinker edge, even with a sweeper-trouble flag and Busch Stadium working against him.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm betting on Tyler Stephenson today. With recent power and a positive matchup, he still has plenty of juice from the books. There's too much to like about this price in today's hitting environment. He's been one of the hottest right-handed bats in baseball lately, and you get a discount.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ MIN | 1:40 PM | Shane Baz vs. Zebby Matthews | Confirmed |
| PHI @ STL | 2:15 PM | Zack Wheeler vs. Kyle Leahy | Confirmed |
| TB @ ATH | 3:05 PM | Drew Rasmussen vs. Jack Perkins | Projected |
| COL @ AZ | 3:40 PM | Ryan Feltner vs. Merrill Kelly | Projected |
| HOU @ SF | 3:45 PM | Bryan King vs. Adrian Houser | Projected |
| MIL @ SD | 4:10 PM | Dustin May vs. Robbie Ray | Projected |
| CLE @ DET | 6:40 PM | Foster Griffin vs. Framber Valdez | Projected |
| PIT @ MIA | 6:40 PM | Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Janson Junk | Projected |
| CHC @ WSH | 6:45 PM | David Peterson vs. Jackson Kent | Projected |
| SEA @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Bryce Miller vs. Will Warren | Projected |
| BOS @ TOR | 7:07 PM | Ranger Suarez vs. José Soriano | Projected |
| NYM @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Zac Thornton vs. Tyler Mahle | Projected |
| CIN @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Rhett Lowder vs. Luis Castillo | Projected |
| KC @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Daniel Lynch IV vs. Eric Lauer | Projected |
| TEX @ LAA | 10:10 PM | Cal Quantrill vs. George Klassen | Projected |
For confirmed lineups and live weather through first pitch, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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