Looking for the best home run props today? Our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is having a great week. Yesterday, multiple users cashed parlays with the tool.
It's the lowest probability day of the week, with no hitters shorter than +366 on our model. Here's where our home run picks model is pointing for Tuesday, August 18. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 19, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability — not a value or edge ranking. See the Best Edge section below for that.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) vs. Jackson Jobe (DET)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.9
- RotoBombs Odds: +392
- RotoBombs Probability: 20.3%
Valdez is barreling 10.9% of his batted balls and averaging 91.3 mph off the bat over the past month. Jobe leans on his four-seam about 41% of the time, and it's the pitch Valdez punishes most — roughly 2 points above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting barreled lately. It doesn't hurt that Jobe has been hit hard of late. The counter: Valdez has struggled against the changeup, a smaller slice (12%) of Jobe's mix.
2. Owen Caissie (MIA) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.9
- RotoBombs Odds: +396
- RotoBombs Probability: 20.2%
Caissie's power has cooled some in recent weeks, but he's still barreling 9.5% of his batted balls at 87.8 mph average. The matchup helps: roughly 24% of what Nola throws is the four-seam, Caissie's best matchup pitch, about 1.4 points above his own baseline against a version that's been getting hit hard. He's struggled against the sinker, which shows up about 19% of the time.
3. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Kyle Freeland (COL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7
- RotoBombs Odds: +404
- RotoBombs Probability: 19.9%
A third night in Coors, and Ohtani's back on the board a night after reaching 30 homers for the sixth year running. He's barreling 15.3% of his batted balls and averaging 93.5 mph off the bat over the past month. Freeland goes to his cutter about 22% of the time, and it's the pitch Ohtani punishes most — roughly 1.3 points above his own baseline, against a version that's been getting barreled. The counter: he's struggled against the knuckle curve, which shows up about 21% of the time.
4. Griffin Conine (MIA) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7
- RotoBombs Odds: +410
- RotoBombs Probability: 19.6%
The lefties vs. Nola matchup is the story at the top of our home run predictions today. Second Marlin in today's top four, same game as Caissie. 6.7, 19.6%, fair +410. Conine's been squaring the ball up even more than usual lately — 19% barrel rate, 95.5 mph average off the bat over the past month. Nola's four-seam is again the exploitable pitch here, about 3.1 points above Conine's own baseline, the single biggest pitch-specific edge in today's top five. He's struggled against the sinker, same soft spot as Caissie.
5. Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Chris Bassitt (BAL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.6
- RotoBombs Odds: +415
- RotoBombs Probability: 19.4%
Rice rounds out the top five in a different game entirely. Rice is barreling 13.4% of his batted balls and averaging 92.2 mph off the bat over the past month. Bassitt throws his cutter about 22% of the time, and it's Rice's best matchup pitch by a wide margin — nearly 4 points above his own baseline.
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
This is the tool's actual +EV filter, comparing our odds against the books' odds. RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
- Christian Franklin (BAL): book +1140 → +503 model, the widest gap on the board.
- Ezequiel Duran (TEX): book +1300 → +713 model.
- Jesus Sanchez (TOR): book +950 → +584 model
- Brian Navarrato (MIA): book +900 → +538 model
- Gleyber Torres (DET): book +1000 → +622 model
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Paul Skenes (DET @ PIT, PNC Park) — Spencer Torkelson grades Strong (6.3, +430) and carries the widest edge on the whole slate outside of Henderson. He's back in the lineup today after a scheduled breather Monday.
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) vs. Aaron Nola (MIA @ PHI, Citizens Bank Park) — Heriberto Hernández grades Strong (6.5, +422), a third Marlin bat with real edge in the same game as Caissie and Conine. He's atop Miami's left field depth chart with Kyle Stowers out.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) vs. Will Warren (NYY @ BAL, Camden Yards) — Gunnar Henderson grades Strong (6.3, +435) and owns the single biggest gap on today's board, on the other side of the same game as Rice.
- Austin Riley (ATL) vs. Taj Bradley (ATL @ MIN, Target Field) — Austin Riley grades Strong (6.3, +435), riding the same recent power surge that's had Atlanta's lineup rolling all week.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm on Esmerlyn Valdez today. He's the only name in the top five that clears our own +EV bar, which tells you today's matchup against Jackson Jobe is doing real, measurable work rather than just reflecting a hitter's raw talent level. He's fully healthy, he's been trending the right direction after a rough patch earlier this month, and unlike the two names that would've otherwise topped this board — Kyle Stowers and Riley Greene, both on the 10-day IL — there's no health question hanging over his spot in Pittsburgh's lineup today.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ PIT | 12:35 PM | Jackson Jobe vs. Paul Skenes | Projected |
| SD @ NYM | 1:10 PM | Michael King vs. Robert Stock | Projected |
| ATL @ MIN | 1:40 PM | AJ Smith-Shawver vs. Taj Bradley | Projected |
| CWS @ CHC | 2:20 PM | Sean Newcomb vs. Clay Holmes | Projected |
| AZ @ BOS | 4:10 PM | Brandon Pfaadt vs. Payton Tolle | Projected |
| MIA @ PHI | 6:05 PM | Sandy Alcantara vs. Aaron Nola | Projected |
| NYY @ BAL | 6:35 PM | Will Warren vs. Chris Bassitt | Projected |
| SF @ CLE | 6:40 PM | Matt Wilkinson vs. Parker Messick | Projected |
| STL @ CIN | 6:40 PM | Matthew Liberatore vs. Chase Burns | Projected |
| TOR @ TB | 6:40 PM | Max Scherzer vs. Drew Rasmussen | Projected |
| ATH @ KC | 7:40 PM | TBD vs. TBD | Projected |
| SEA @ MIL | 7:40 PM | Logan Gilbert vs. Dustin May | Projected |
| WSH @ TEX | 8:05 PM | Cade Cavalli vs. Kumar Rocker | Projected |
| LAA @ HOU | 8:10 PM | Walbert Ureña vs. Ethan Pecko | Projected |
| LAD @ COL | 8:40 PM | Roki Sasaki vs. Kyle Freeland | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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