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Use our data-driven home run betting tool to find the best home run props for Wednesday, August 26.
Here's where our MLB home run picks model, RotoBombs, is pointing today.
Scroll to the bottom of the page if you want to use the tool and research your best home run bets.
MLB Home Run Predictions Today (August 26, 2026): 5 Most Likely Homers
Here are today's top home run picks from the model's power ranking. Our model determines the batters who are most likely to homer based on a robust blend of batted ball data, matchup data, recent form, park factors, weather, projected plate appearances, bullpen strength, and more.
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1. Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs. MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.6
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +353
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +347 (DraftKings)
Vargas has been putting a charge into the ball — he's barreling 14.5% of his batted balls and averaging 91.6 mph off the bat over the past month. Gore goes to his four-seam about 47% of the time, and that's the pitch Vargas punishes most, about 1.8 points above his own damage baseline, and it doesn't hurt that Gore has been getting hit hard lately. The counter: Vargas has struggled against the curveball, which shows up about 18% of the time. Rate Field plays a little short tonight, which helps.
2. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. MacKenzie Gore (TEX)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.5
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +359
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +360 (FanDuel)
Damage is the default when Murakami connects — he's barreling 20.6% of his batted balls and averaging 94.2 mph off the bat over the past month, even if the last couple of weeks have cooled off some. Gore's four-seam, 47% of his mix, is the pitch Murakami punishes most, about 9 points above his own damage baseline, and hitters have been teeing off on Gore in his last few outings. The counter: he's struggled against the changeup, which shows up about 12% of the time.
3. Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (PHI)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.3
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +371
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +390 (BetMGM)
Raleigh is barreling 22.2% of his batted balls and averaging 93.8 mph off the bat over the past month, his best contact stretch yet. The matchup helps: roughly 38% of what Luzardo throws is the sweeper, Raleigh's favorite pitch to do damage against, and it's a version of that pitch that's been getting barreled all around. Luzardo has been giving up loud contact lately, and 70-degree air at T-Mobile tonight should add a little carry. The counter: he's struggled against the sinker, which shows up about 18% of the time.
4. Spencer Jones (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.1
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +383
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +540 (FanDuel)
This is the one edge on the board worth pointing at directly: our model puts Jones at 18.1% to go deep tonight (fair odds +452), and FanDuel's price implies just 15.6% — that's real value. Jones has been putting a charge into the ball, barreling 24.1% of his batted balls at an average 95.2 mph over the past month, and the trend line points up. Lambert's four-seam, 32% of his mix, is the pitch Jones punishes most, and Yankee Stadium plays up for a lefty swing like his. The counter: he's struggled against the slider, which shows up about 13% of the time.
5. Jose Siri (LAA) vs. Joey Cantillo (CLE)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.9
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +392
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +500 (DraftKings)
Another real gap here — DraftKings' +516 implies 16.2% while our model has Siri at 18.0% (fair +455). He's barreling 18.4% of his batted balls and averaging 90.9 mph off the bat over the past month, and the recent swings look even better than that. Cantillo's four-seam, about a third of his mix, is Siri's favorite pitch to do damage against, and Cantillo has been leaving pitches over the plate lately. Add in 96-degree air at Angel Stadium adding carry, and the counter is just that he's struggled against the changeup, which shows up about 26% of the time.
Today's Home Run Picks with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Jonah Cox (SF) vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN) — our best-graded +EV name outside the top five (5.4, LEAN). Fair odds +507 (16.5%) against a best price of +1020 (DraftKings), and he grades out well on his own power profile, too.
- Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT) vs. Randy Vásquez (SD) — fair +655 (13.3%) vs. a best price of +1360 (DraftKings). The gap is enormous, but the model's overall grade here is a pass (4.1) — the power profile alone isn't clearing the bar.
- Jose Fernandez (AZ) vs. Matthew Boyd (CHC) — fair +593 (14.4%) vs. a best price of +1180 (DraftKings). Same story: a real price gap, but a pass-grade profile (4.6) underneath it.
- Brock Rodden (SEA) vs. Jesús Luzardo (PHI) — fair +627 (13.8%) vs. a best price of +1220 (DraftKings), also grading out as a pass (4.3) on power alone, and his lineup spot isn't out yet.
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN) — no live odds edge flagged for him as of this writing, but he's in the same favorable Oracle Park matchup as Cox above, facing the same lefty.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU) — same favorable four-seam matchup as Jones above, grading out at 6.0 (LEAN) with a fair price of +454 against a best price of +410 (FanDuel).
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU) — a third Yankee in this same game, at 5.9 (LEAN) with a fair price of +461 against a best price of +370 (FanDuel).
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) vs. Dustin May (MIL) — a real book edge here, too: fair +484 (17.1%) against a best price of +600 (BetMGM).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) — grades out at 6.1 (LEAN), the best raw grade of this group, with a fair price of +449 against a best price of +280 (BetMGM).
- Jake Rogers (CWS) vs. MacKenzie Gore (TEX) — the same Gore matchup that's carrying Vargas and Murakami above; Rogers gets a look at the same four-seam-heavy lefty tonight at Rate Field.
Hot Bat Home Run Props Today: Who's Swinging It Best Right Now
This is our look at the hitters running the hottest over their last stretch, regardless of tonight's matchup.
- Luis Robert Jr. (NYM) vs. Dustin May (MIL) — Citi Field, 7:10 PM ET. Fair +570 against a best price of +630 (DraftKings), a modest but real book edge.
- Jose Siri (LAA) vs. Joey Cantillo (CLE) — our #5 pick above; also shows up here on recent form.
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) vs. Ryan Gusto (MIA) — loanDepot park, 6:40 PM ET. Fair +599 against a best price of +920 (FanDuel).
- Jo Adell (CLE) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA) — Angel Stadium, 4:07 PM ET.
- Dylan Beavers (BAL) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL) — Busch Stadium, 7:45 PM ET. Fair +635 against a best price of +820 (FanDuel).
Zone Mix Home Run Predictions Today: Where Contact, Pitch Selection and Power Overlap
Zone Mix blends where a hitter's batted balls tend to land, which pitches the opposing pitcher actually throws, and how much power the hitter shows specifically in the zones that pitch mix funnels into. Today's live tool didn't have that specific overlap loaded for four of these five names by the time this posted, so here's the real matchup each one is walking into tonight:
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) vs. Ryan Gusto (MIA) — loanDepot park, 6:40 PM ET.
- Luis Torrens (NYM) vs. Dustin May (MIL) — Citi Field, 7:10 PM ET.
- Jose Caballero (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU) — Yankee Stadium, 7:05 PM ET.
- Miguel Amaya (CHC) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — Chase Field, 3:40 PM ET.
- Jonny DeLuca (TB) vs. Troy Melton (DET) — Comerica Park, 1:10 PM ET.
Pitch Hunters: Who's Sitting on the Pitcher's Best Pitch
Pitch Hunters is the tool's term for a batter with strong recorded data against a pitcher's single most-used pitch. The live tool didn't have that specific pitch-mix breakdown loaded for this group by the time this posted, so here are the real matchups:
- Miguel Amaya (CHC) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — Chase Field, 3:40 PM ET.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) — Chase Field, 3:40 PM ET.
- Gavin Sheets (SD) vs. Bubba Chandler (PIT) — Petco Park, 4:10 PM ET.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) vs. Tanner Gordon (COL) — Nationals Park, 6:45 PM ET.
- Taylor Trammell (HOU) vs. Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) — Yankee Stadium, 7:05 PM ET.
Home Run Hitters Due Today: Power Bats with Strong Recent Data, Low Output
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU) — Yankee Stadium, 7:05 PM ET. Fair +461, best price +370 (FanDuel).
- Brady House (WSH) vs. Tanner Gordon (COL) — Nationals Park, 6:45 PM ET.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) vs. Peter Lambert (HOU) — Yankee Stadium, 7:05 PM ET. Fair +454, best price +410 (FanDuel).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs. Bryan Woo (SEA) — T-Mobile Park, 4:10 PM ET.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL) vs. Michael McGreevy (STL) — Busch Stadium, 7:45 PM ET.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm leaning toward Spencer Jones tonight. He's the cleanest combination of a real book mispricing and a profile that backs it up: our model has him at 18.1% to go deep, FanDuel's +540 implies just 15.6%, and every underlying input — exit velocity, barrel rate, bat speed — grades out elite over his last 25 batted-ball events. He's trending up, he's getting a favorable four-seam matchup against Peter Lambert, and Yankee Stadium plays up for a left-handed swing like his. When the model and the market disagree and the hitter's own numbers back the model, that's the shape of bet worth making.
Use Our MLB Home Run Props Tool
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Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DET | 1:10 PM | Freddy Peralta vs. Troy Melton | Comerica Park |
| CHC @ AZ | 3:40 PM | Matthew Boyd vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | Chase Field |
| CIN @ SF | 3:45 PM | Nick Lodolo vs. Logan Webb | Oracle Park |
| CLE @ LAA | 4:07 PM | Joey Cantillo vs. Grayson Rodriguez | Angel Stadium |
| PIT @ SD | 4:10 PM | Bubba Chandler vs. Randy Vásquez | Petco Park |
| PHI @ SEA | 4:10 PM | Jesús Luzardo vs. Bryan Woo | T-Mobile Park |
| BOS @ MIA | 6:40 PM | Sonny Gray vs. Ryan Gusto | loanDepot park |
| COL @ WSH | 6:45 PM | Tanner Gordon vs. Matt Waldron | Nationals Park |
| HOU @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Peter Lambert vs. Elmer Rodríguez | Yankee Stadium |
| KC @ TOR | 7:07 PM | Randy Dobnak vs. Spencer Miles | Rogers Centre |
| MIL @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Dustin May vs. Robert Stock | Citi Field |
| LAD @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Roki Sasaki vs. AJ Smith-Shawver | Truist Park |
| TEX @ CWS | 7:40 PM | MacKenzie Gore vs. Sean Burke | Rate Field |
| BAL @ STL | 7:45 PM | Kyle Bradish vs. Michael McGreevy | Busch Stadium |
| MIN @ ATH | 9:05 PM | Connor Prielipp vs. J.T. Ginn | Sutter Health Park |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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