Looking for the best home run props today? Tuesday brings a full 15-game MLB slate with all 30 teams in action and no doubleheaders.
None of today's five highest-scored hitters clear the model's own market-value check. The best price plays come from further down the board, headlined by a Red Sox catcher and a trio of Rays and Mets bats the model likes against tonight's starters.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Wednesday, September 2.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Sal Stewart Home Run Prop vs. Casey Mize
Stewart grades Elite at 9.2, with a 26.0% probability and +284 fair odds.
He's on his best recent contact stretch of the season — 24% barrel rate and 90.3 mph exit velo over his last 15 days, up from a 10.6% season barrel rate — and the model flags his slider matchup against Mize specifically, not just Mize in general, as the exploitable piece. Combine a Reds-favorable forecast with a starter already trending toward hittable pitches and this is as complete a case as the model builds today.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +284 (26.0%)
- Best Available Odds: +454 at Novig
2. Hunter Goodman Home Run Prop vs. Trevor Rogers
Goodman grades Elite at 8.8, with a 25.1% probability and +297 fair odds — the top score on Wednesday's slate.
He's barreling 12.5% of his batted balls and averaging 87.9 mph off the bat over the past month, and the model likes his fastball matchup against Rogers' most-used pitch (46% usage) enough to flag Rogers as a vulnerable starter tonight. The one blemish is a documented weakness against sweepers, and Coors Field's 89-degree air is adding roughly 17 feet of carry even with the wind only blowing 6 mph across rather than out.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +297 (25.1%)
- Best Available Odds: +335 at Novig
3. Adael Amador Home Run Prop vs. Trevor Rogers
Amador grades Elite at 8.0, with a 22.9% probability and +337 fair odds.
Amador's own power plays about league average, but the pitch he's leaning on is doing the heavy lifting: Rogers' fastball is the specific pitch the model has flagged as his leak all month, thrown 46% of the time and getting hit hard regardless of who's standing in the box. Layer Coors Field's thin, warm air on top of that and the profile clears even without standout raw thump.
No sportsbook has posted a number on this prop as of this run.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +334 (23.0%)
- Best Available Odds: Odds Not Live Yet
4. Pete Alonso Home Run Prop vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Alonso grades Elite at 7.8, with a 22.5% probability and +345 fair odds.
He's barreling 19% of his batted balls on the season and averaging 94.6 mph off the bat, with his recent exit velo actually ticking up to 95.3 even as the barrel rate has cooled to 8%. The fastball matchup against Sugano is the plus here, and Coors Field's thin, 89-degree air is adding roughly 17 feet of carry on top of it — the same conditions-plus-weak-starter combination working for the Rockies bats above, just from the other dugout. The one blemish is a documented weakness against cutters.
+290 at Kalshi falls 6.3 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +345 (22.5%)
- Best Available Odds: +290 at Kalshi
5. Tyler Stephenson Home Run Prop vs. Casey Mize
Stephenson grades Elite at 8.5, with a 22.1% probability and +351 fair odds.
He's barreling 16.4% of his batted balls and averaging 91.5 mph off the bat, backed by a fastball matchup he's punished before and Great American's 91-degree heat adding roughly 18 feet of carry on top of it. The one soft spot is against splitters, but that's a minor blemish on an otherwise clean profile against a Mize outing the model already flags as exploitable.
+411 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 1.6 percentage points.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +351 (22.1%)
- Best Available Odds: +411 at Kalshi
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Stephenson and Stewart already clear that bar above. Here are the best values elsewhere on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Tovar | vs. BAL | 7.4 | +641 at Novig | +7.0 pts |
| Edwin Arroyo | vs. SD | 5.4 | +1050 at BetMGM | +6.9 pts |
| Matt McLain | vs. SD | 7.8 | +535 at DraftKings | +5.7 pts |
| Taylor Trammell | vs. CWS | 5.4 | +830 at DraftKings | +4.9 pts |
| Trevor Story | vs. SEA | 5.0 | +950 at DraftKings | +4.4 pts |
| Randy Arozarena | vs. BOS | 6.2 | +646 at Kalshi | +3.7 pts |
Ezequiel Tovar owns the best combination of score and value on the board. He's an Elite-tier play in his own right against Rogers, and +641 at Novig is still 7.0 percentage points better than the model's own number — the largest edge of the six paired with the highest raw score.
Edwin Arroyo is the extreme case: a modest 5.4 score, but a +1050 price at BetMGM that projects a return of nearly 90 cents per dollar risked, the largest raw expected value anywhere on today's board. Matt McLain adds a fourth Reds bat with real edge against Mize, while Trammell, Story and Arozarena round things out at smaller but still positive numbers in three different games.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
White Sox at Astros (Davis Martin)
Martin is giving up loud contact on both sides of this one. Yordan Alvarez grades Strong against him on a slider matchup even with his own contact having cooled recently, and Nelson Velázquez sits right behind him — a hitter running a 30% barrel rate over his last month. On the White Sox side, Taylor Trammell and Cam Smith both clear the value threshold against Martin without cracking the top of the board by raw score, which is usually the sign of a starter the model doesn't trust regardless of who's in the box.
Mariners at Red Sox (Bryce Miller and Patrick Sandoval)
This game cuts both ways. Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena both like their looks against Sandoval — Raleigh on a 22.8% barrel rate and Arozarena with the board's fourth-best raw edge — while Boston's Trevor Story clears value against Miller and Julio Rodríguez adds a smaller edge of his own against Sandoval. Fenway's wind is blowing 12 mph in from center, which works against the fly-ball swings on both sides, making this a bat-and-matchup story rather than a park-driven one.
Brewers at Cubs (Jacob Misiorowski)
Misiorowski has been hit hard in his recent outings, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is the headliner taking advantage — a 17.2% barrel rate and a fastball matchup he's already punished, thrown 64% of the time. Michael Conforto clears the value threshold on the Brewers side of the same game, giving bettors a second angle if Crow-Armstrong's price doesn't hold.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Ezequiel Tovar to hit a home run at +641 at Novig is my favorite bet on Wednesday's slate.
Tovar isn't the biggest name on the board, and his own power plays as ordinary by big-league standards, but this is the rare case where the model's conviction and the market's price point the same direction. Rogers' fastball is already flagged as his most exploitable pitch this month, Coors Field's thin air is doing quiet work under every Rockies hitter tonight, and the number still sits 7.0 percentage points above what the model thinks is fair. When the score and the edge agree that cleanly, it's worth paying attention to.
Edwin Arroyo offers a similar edge at a much longer price for bettors who'd rather chase raw expected value than model conviction.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD at CIN | 12:40 p.m. | Casey Mize vs. Brandon Williamson | Projected |
| ATL at WSH | 1:05 p.m. | Grant Holmes vs. Brad Lord | Projected |
| ATH at TEX | 2:35 p.m. | Jacob Lopez vs. Cody Bradford | Projected |
| BAL at COL | 3:10 p.m. | Trevor Rogers vs. Tomoyuki Sugano | Projected |
| PHI at AZ | 3:40 p.m. | Andrew Painter vs. Jose Cabrera | Projected |
| SEA at BOS | 4:10 p.m. | Bryce Miller vs. Patrick Sandoval | Projected |
| NYM at TB | 6:40 p.m. | Justin Hagenman vs. Griffin Jax | Projected |
| TOR at CLE | 6:40 p.m. | Dylan Cease vs. Joey Cantillo | Projected |
| SF at PIT | 6:40 p.m. | Landen Roupp vs. Bubba Chandler | Projected |
| DET at MIN | 7:40 p.m. | Drew Anderson vs. Dean Kremer | Projected |
| MIA at KC | 7:40 p.m. | Eury Pérez vs. Noah Cameron | Projected |
| MIL at CHC | 7:40 p.m. | Jacob Misiorowski vs. David Peterson | Projected |
| CWS at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Davis Martin vs. Hayden Wesneski | Projected |
| NYY at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Cam Schlittler vs. Reid Detmers | Projected |
| STL at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Brycen Mautz vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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