Looking for the best home run props today? Wednesday's slate spans 15 games, from a 1:10 p.m. ET matinee between the Twins and Tigers in Detroit through a 10:10 p.m. ET finale between the Reds and Dodgers in Los Angeles.
Six hitters grade Elite tonight, and five of them come out of just two games. The Angels send three bats — Mike Trout, Jose Siri and Zach Neto — into Fenway Park against Jake Bennett, while the Cubs' Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Conforto both draw Logan Henderson at American Family Field. Kyle Schwarber, going up against Houston's Hunter Brown at Citizens Bank Park, is the lone Elite name on the board that isn't part of either stack.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Wednesday, September 9.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Mike Trout Home Run Prop vs. Jake Bennett
Trout grades Elite at 8.5, with a 24.2% probability and +313 fair odds — the top score on tonight's 15-game slate.
His barrel rate has climbed to 12% over his last 30 days, up from a 10.7% mark for the season, even as his average exit velocity has dipped slightly. Bennett throws his fastball 35% of the time, and it's the pitch Trout has done the most damage against. Fenway's forecast tonight — 77°F with a 13 mph crosswind — projects roughly 23 feet of extra carry, the biggest weather boost anyone on the board gets. The one flag: Wednesday's Angels lineup isn't out yet.
+499 at Polymarket clears the model's threshold by 6.0 percentage points — the widest gap among tonight's six Elite-tier names.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +313 (24.2%)Best Available Odds: +499 at Polymarket
2. Kyle Schwarber Home Run Prop vs. Hunter Brown
Schwarber grades Elite at 8.3, with a 23.9% probability and +319 fair odds.
He's barreling 12% of his batted balls over the past month (16.7% for the season) with a bat speed the model flags as elite, and his exit velocity has actually ticked up to 90.9 mph recently. Brown's sinker, a pitch he throws 30% of the time, is exactly what Schwarber has hit hardest — the fastball itself, at 32% usage, is more of a soft spot for him. Citizens Bank Park sits at 85°F tonight with an out-blowing wind adding real carry.
The market has already caught up to it, though: +301 at Polymarket falls 3.8 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +319 (23.9%)Best Available Odds: +301 at Polymarket
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Prop vs. Logan Henderson
Crow-Armstrong grades Elite at 8.3, with a 23.7% probability and +322 fair odds — tied with Schwarber for the second-best score on the board.
His exit velocity has jumped to 95.2 mph over his last 30 days, well above a 90.9 mph season mark that was already strong, and his barrel rate sits at 16% recently against a 17.6% season number. Henderson leans on his changeup a third of the time, and it's the pitch Crow-Armstrong has hurt him with most; the curveball, a smaller share of his mix, is the one caution. American Family Field sits at 82°F with a mild out-blowing wind tonight.
+319 at DraftKings falls just 1.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — the market has nearly closed the gap.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +322 (23.7%)Best Available Odds: +319 at DraftKings
4. Jose Siri Home Run Prop vs. Jake Bennett
Siri grades Elite at 7.6, with a 22.0% probability and +354 fair odds.
He's an elite bat-speed threat carrying an 18.4% season barrel rate, and he's the second Angel plugged into tonight's Fenway matchup alongside Trout above — both see the same fastball-heavy Bennett look and the same weather-driven carry boost.
+567 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 3.9 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +354 (22.0%)Best Available Odds: +567 at Novig
5. Zach Neto Home Run Prop vs. Jake Bennett
Neto grades Elite at 7.3, with a 21.3% probability and +370 fair odds — the third Angel tied to tonight's Bennett matchup, and the only one of the three without a hot recent stretch behind it. His numbers have held flat all year: an 8.6% barrel rate and 90.1 mph exit velocity for the season, basically unchanged over the last 30 days.
+441 at Novig clears the model's threshold by 0.7 percentage points — the thinnest edge among tonight's six Elite-tier names, tied with Texas' Corey Seager down in the Strong tier.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +370 (21.3%)Best Available Odds: +441 at Novig
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Michael Conforto already clears the bar at +5.9 points from the Cubs' side of tonight's Milwaukee game, one of the widest gaps on the board alongside Trout above. Here are the best values further down the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vaughn Grissom | vs. BOS | 5.8 (Lean) | +953 at Novig | +6.3 pts |
| Michael Conforto | vs. MIL | 7.2 (Elite) | +700 at DraftKings | +5.9 pts |
| Carlos Jorge | vs. LAD | 4.9 (Pass) | +1329 at Novig | +5.6 pts |
| Adael Amador | vs. NYY | 5.3 (Lean) | +953 at Novig | +5.4 pts |
| Kyle Karros | vs. NYY | 5.2 (Lean) | +1011 at Novig | +4.9 pts |
| Christian Yelich | vs. CHC | 5.4 (Lean) | +800 at Hard Rock | +4.1 pts |
Vaughn Grissom owns the widest gap on the board outside the Elite tier — a +953 price at Novig, riding the same Angels-Red Sox game that produced three Elite hitters above. Carlos Jorge's +1329 at Novig is the single longest price on tonight's board, a rare Pass-tier hitter with real value against a soft Dodgers matchup.
Colorado stacks two more angles into its game against the Yankees in Amador and Karros, while Christian Yelich gives Milwaukee a second look underneath Crow-Armstrong and Conforto's matchup with Logan Henderson.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Rockies at Yankees (mutual vulnerable arms)
Both Tomoyuki Sugano and Will Warren drew soft matchups Wednesday, and hitters from both sides show up with real angles. New York's Spencer Jones (6.7, Strong) carries a 93.7 mph exit velocity against Sugano, though the market at +318 Polymarket has already moved past the model's fair number. Jasson Domínguez (5.9, Lean) offers the same read at an even higher 99.3 mph exit velocity, with no market price posted yet. Colorado answers back against Warren with Hunter Goodman (6.0, Lean) plus Amador and Karros above — three separate Rockies looks against one pitcher, with Zac Veen (5.3, Lean, +852 Novig) adding a fourth.
Dodgers at Reds (mutual vulnerable arms)
Shohei Ohtani grades Strong at 6.4 against Rhett Lowder on a true power profile, though his barrel rate has cooled to 4% over his last 15 games and Wednesday's Dodgers lineup isn't out yet. Max Muncy (6.2) and Alex Freeland (5.6, +700 BetMGM, clearing the model's threshold by 3.6 points) add two more true-power looks in the same game. On the other side, Cincinnati's Carlos Jorge is the rare Pass-tier value play against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, detailed above.
Cardinals at Giants (Blade Tidwell)
Nolan Gorman grades Strong at 6.7 against Tidwell on an elite barrel rate, and the market hasn't caught up — +620 at DraftKings clears the model's threshold by 3.5 points. Teammate Alec Burleson adds a lower-conviction look at 6.2, though Oracle Park's park factor works against both of them tonight.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Mike Trout to hit a home run at +499 at Polymarket is my favorite bet on Wednesday's slate.
This is the case where the model's top overall score and the board's widest value gap point at the same player. Trout carries the top score on a 15-game night, Fenway's forecast projects the largest weather-driven carry boost of anyone tonight, and the price still sits 6.0 percentage points above what the model considers fair — the largest edge among tonight's six Elite-tier names. The one real caution is that Wednesday's Angels lineup hasn't been announced yet.
Siri and Neto offer the same fastball-versus-Bennett read from the same lineup, for bettors who'd rather spread the bet across all three Angels than lean on one price.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one place.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at DET | 1:10 p.m. | Zebby Matthews vs. Keider Montero | Projected |
| TOR at ATH | 3:05 p.m. | Braydon Fisher vs. Brady Basso | Projected |
| STL at SF | 3:45 p.m. | Andre Pallante vs. Blade Tidwell | Projected |
| TEX at SEA | 4:10 p.m. | Cody Bradford vs. Kade Anderson | Projected |
| WSH at SD | 4:10 p.m. | Jackson Kent vs. Walker Buehler | Projected |
| CLE at BAL | 6:35 p.m. | Foster Griffin vs. Shane Baz | Projected |
| NYM at MIA | 6:40 p.m. | Robert Stock vs. Janson Junk | Projected |
| HOU at PHI | 6:40 p.m. | Hunter Brown vs. Cristopher Sánchez | Projected |
| LAA at BOS | 6:45 p.m. | Ryan Johnson vs. Jake Bennett | Projected |
| COL at NYY | 7:05 p.m. | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Will Warren | Projected |
| TB at ATL | 7:15 p.m. | Griffin Jax vs. Reynaldo López | Projected |
| PIT at CWS | 7:40 p.m. | Lake Bachar vs. Davis Martin | Projected |
| AZ at KC | 7:40 p.m. | Zac Gallen vs. Daniel Lynch | Projected |
| CHC at MIL | 7:40 p.m. | Kevin Gausman vs. Logan Henderson | Projected |
| CIN at LAD | 10:10 p.m. | Rhett Lowder vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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