With the season winding down, I decided to gather some overarching lessons from 2026 to take forward into next year's drafts.
1. Hitter platoons aren't going away, so embrace them
The trend of MLB teams utilizing platoons didn't start this season, but it's becoming more pronounced. It's a cheap way to Frankenstein a league-average or better player on a budget.
With the prevalance of platoons, it's impossible to roster enough good regulars, especially in the outfield, in 12-team or deeper leagues. Every week, some hitters will have an advantage when the schedule is all righties or all lefties. Maybe that advantage will last a couple of weeks.
To find the players worth adding for the next week or two, I've used our starting pitcher grid to see which teams have more righty or lefty starters coming up. Our batting order changes page can help identify platoon hitters.
2. High-strikeout hitters are getting more of a chance
The league's tolerance of high-whiff hitters has increased over the years. About 15 years ago, only three hitters had a strikeout rate over 30 percent (min. 400 plate appearances). That number has jumped, peaking at 17 in 2023, and was at 15 this year.
Season | > 30% K% (min 400 PA) |
|---|---|
2010 | 3 |
2011 | 3 |
2012 | 7 |
2013 | 7 |
2014 | 9 |
2015 | 7 |
2016 | 9 |
2017 | 15 |
2018 | 11 |
2019 | 9 |
2020 | --- |
2021 | 10 |
2022 | 11 |
2023 | 17 |
2024 | 14 |
2025 | 9 |
2026 | 15 |
I think a 30 percent strikeout rate was a
With the season winding down, I decided to gather some overarching lessons from 2026 to take forward into next year's drafts.
1. Hitter platoons aren't going away, so embrace them
The trend of MLB teams utilizing platoons didn't start this season, but it's becoming more pronounced. It's a cheap way to Frankenstein a league-average or better player on a budget.
With the prevalance of platoons, it's impossible to roster enough good regulars, especially in the outfield, in 12-team or deeper leagues. Every week, some hitters will have an advantage when the schedule is all righties or all lefties. Maybe that advantage will last a couple of weeks.
To find the players worth adding for the next week or two, I've used our starting pitcher grid to see which teams have more righty or lefty starters coming up. Our batting order changes page can help identify platoon hitters.
2. High-strikeout hitters are getting more of a chance
The league's tolerance of high-whiff hitters has increased over the years. About 15 years ago, only three hitters had a strikeout rate over 30 percent (min. 400 plate appearances). That number has jumped, peaking at 17 in 2023, and was at 15 this year.
Season | > 30% K% (min 400 PA) |
|---|---|
2010 | 3 |
2011 | 3 |
2012 | 7 |
2013 | 7 |
2014 | 9 |
2015 | 7 |
2016 | 9 |
2017 | 15 |
2018 | 11 |
2019 | 9 |
2020 | --- |
2021 | 10 |
2022 | 11 |
2023 | 17 |
2024 | 14 |
2025 | 9 |
2026 | 15 |
I think a 30 percent strikeout rate was a nice round number for teams to set the cutoff. Now it is closer to a 33 percent strikeout rate, with four hitters exceeding that mark this year.
The key for hitters to stay in the league with a strikeout rate over 30 percent is to knock the snot out of the ball. The ISO (Isolated Power) for the 15 hitters with a strikeout rate north of 30 percent is .212, well above the league average of .156.
A simple test I use with hitting prospects is to check in on their minor-league contact rates to predict their major-league success. If that rate was under 70 percent in the minors, it won't likely improve in the majors. Major-league hitters with a sub-70 percent contact rate average a 32 percent strikeout rate. If a batter has contact issues, they will need to show elite power, with power metrics in the top 10 percent of the league.
3. There are too many stuff and pitching models
Once people figured out how to analyze and coach pitchers using pitch-tracking data (StatCast), everyone and their mother created a Stuff-like model. There is no way to keep track of and test each one. It's time to simplify.
At most, I'd rely on one or two of these advanced metrics, know when they work (small samples), and just roll with them. For me, I lean into botERA at FanGraphs. It's on an easy-to-follow ERA scale, it's free, and it's highly predictive*.
Again, there is too much to follow. Pick a lane and go with that.
4. Target speedsters with non-zero power
This seems like common sense, but when trying to make up steals, aim for guys who can help some in other categories. The two best examples from this past season were Otto Lopez and Jake McCarthy. In NFBC drafts, the pair were going after pick 200, and both ended up as top-20 hitters. Their 30-plus steals carried the day, but both put up double-digit home run totals.
Not all these guys hit, but I have no problem taking chances on them after pick 150. Most of those players will head to the wire anyway. Without knowing future ADP, some guys who might fit that bill in 2027 are Esteury Ruiz, Jakob Marsee, Andres Gimenez and Brayan Rocchio.
5. Pay up for one top-5 closer, but not a second one
I know the game changes from season to season, but after trying to go cheap on closers for a few seasons, I decided that I'm going to go with the plan of one established good closer and then speculate late.
The goal is to speculate on one closer at a time, not two. Without one closer to rely on, I felt myself getting desperate to add at least one, thereby wasting too much FAAB in the process.
I don't want to go too far. I've drafted two elite closers in the first 10 rounds before and missed out on solid hitters and starting pitchers.
And this topic combines with the next one.
6. Spread your top talent around
If a fantasy manager is in just one league, they should go get the players they want and/or think will be the best. Normally, I play in about 10 draft and auction leagues so I'm going to limit myself to two of any player in the first three rounds. I like to schedule a late auction to help get some of the players I haven't been able to get in earlier drafts.
So many of this season's top picks disappointed (Judge, Soto, Ramirez, Acuna, Skenes, Crochet, Henderson, Tucker, Raleigh), and I don't want to lose the same anchor in all my leagues.
Since I'd like to target one top closer, I need to make sure I'm not relying on the same one in all my leagues. If that one closer fails (see Edwin Diaz), I'm struggling in all my leagues.
* I tested the predictive value of botERA and other Stuff modes in the 2025 edition of The Process. It was at or near the top of all of my tests. Additionally, after Cameron Grove (working for the Guardians) created botERA, it has remained unchanged, so it can be back-tested. Some of the other stuff models change every season.
