The starting pitcher waiver wire is bare of any semi-talented arms, so I want an excuse to find some possible targets. I decided to examine starters with at least 20 innings pitched over the past two months who were rostered in fewer than 50 percent of all NFBC RotoWire Online Championship leagues. Then I ranked the starters by "my" pitcher evaluation (on an ERA scale), which deliberately overweights recent performance.
In this table are the top 12 options.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | WHIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Jeff's ERA Talent | Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 39 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | .318 | 45% | 1.26 | 4.38 | 3.42 | 3.65 | 4.19 | 36% |
| Sean Manaea | 48 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | .288 | 42% | 1.25 | 3.88 | 4.65 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 47% |
| Ryan Gusto | 29 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .330 | 38% | 1.62 | 5.76 | 4.69 | 4.74 | 4.35 | 0% |
| Jack Perkins | 37 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | .305 | 30% | 1.47 | 6.99 | 5.09 | 4.31 | 4.41 | 7% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 40 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | .357 | 34% | 1.65 | 6.64 | 5.42 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 33% |
| Javier Assad | 26 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | .219 | 39% | 1.03 | 2.39 | 5.35 | 4.36 | 4.47 | 5% |
| Tyler Mahle | 32 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | .269 | 42% | 1.18 | 3.06 | 3.60 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 21% |
| JP Sears | 24 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | .254 | 42% | 1.26 | 4.38 | 5.10 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 1% |
| Griffin Canning | 22 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .371 | 44% | 1.63 | 6.35 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.56 | 1% |
| Luinder Avila | 46 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | .278 | 47% | 1.46 | 4.70 | 4.72 | 4.86 | 4.57 | 2% |
| Slade Cecconi | 45 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .303 | 41% | 1.45 | 4.14 | 4.60 | 4.41 | 4.57 | 19% |
| Andrew Alvarez | 31 |
The starting pitcher waiver wire is bare of any semi-talented arms, so I want an excuse to find some possible targets. I decided to examine starters with at least 20 innings pitched over the past two months who were rostered in fewer than 50 percent of all NFBC RotoWire Online Championship leagues. Then I ranked the starters by "my" pitcher evaluation (on an ERA scale), which deliberately overweights recent performance.
In this table are the top 12 options.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | GB% | WHIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | Jeff's ERA Talent | Roster% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Prielipp | 39 | 9.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | .318 | 45% | 1.26 | 4.38 | 3.42 | 3.65 | 4.19 | 36% |
| Sean Manaea | 48 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | .288 | 42% | 1.25 | 3.88 | 4.65 | 4.30 | 4.29 | 47% |
| Ryan Gusto | 29 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .330 | 38% | 1.62 | 5.76 | 4.69 | 4.74 | 4.35 | 0% |
| Jack Perkins | 37 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | .305 | 30% | 1.47 | 6.99 | 5.09 | 4.31 | 4.41 | 7% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 40 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | .357 | 34% | 1.65 | 6.64 | 5.42 | 4.57 | 4.42 | 33% |
| Javier Assad | 26 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | .219 | 39% | 1.03 | 2.39 | 5.35 | 4.36 | 4.47 | 5% |
| Tyler Mahle | 32 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 0.6 | .269 | 42% | 1.18 | 3.06 | 3.60 | 4.31 | 4.51 | 21% |
| JP Sears | 24 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | .254 | 42% | 1.26 | 4.38 | 5.10 | 4.38 | 4.55 | 1% |
| Griffin Canning | 22 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .371 | 44% | 1.63 | 6.35 | 4.30 | 4.26 | 4.56 | 1% |
| Luinder Avila | 46 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | .278 | 47% | 1.46 | 4.70 | 4.72 | 4.86 | 4.57 | 2% |
| Slade Cecconi | 45 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.4 | .303 | 41% | 1.45 | 4.14 | 4.60 | 4.41 | 4.57 | 19% |
| Andrew Alvarez | 31 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | .363 | 55% | 1.68 | 4.35 | 3.43 | 3.95 | 4.60 | 6% |
None of these pitchers are great, let alone good. They are maybe tolerable. The goal of this exercise was to find a possible sleeper or two. Most likely the pitcher made a mid-season change, but previous stats are masking the changes.
Here are my thoughts on some of the guys.
Connor Prielipp: A 4.73 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are likely scaring off potential managers, while his ERA estimators and botERA (available at FanGraphs) are just over 4.00. He's been unlucky, with a 60 percent strand rate and .305 BABIP.
He's not showing any improvements besides his walk rate dropping from 4.1 BB/9 before June 1 to 2.5 BB/9 since then.
Sean Manaea: Since rejoining the rotation, he's been streamable, with a 3.93 ERA (4.27 xFIP), 1.25 WHIP and 7.9 K/9. Analysts pointed to a cutter he added as a potential reason for him to improve from the early part of the season, but he's now dropped the pitch. He's focusing on throwing his fastball (60 percent usage in his last two starts) more.
A fine streamer.
Ryan Gusto: A .320 BABIP and 65 percent strand rate lead to a 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. A 4.28 xFIP and 4.24 botERA point to a better pitcher, but the 27-year-old has a major flaw: he can't get lefties out.
On the season, he has a 23 percent K%-BB% against righties (while allowing a .611 OPS) and just a five percent K%-BB% (with a .863 OPS) versus lefties. While he has six pitches he throws over six percent of the time, he hasn't found a combination that gets lefties out.
Jack Perkins: If anyone falls into the unlucky camp, it's Perkins, who has a .306 BABIP, 1.5 HR/9, and a 58 percent strand rate. A 3.6 BB/9 makes the problem worse. Even with the flaws, he has a 4.27 xERA and 3.49 botERA because of a 10.5 K/9. His strikeout rate ranks 17th among all pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched.
He hasn't pitched for a decent stretch this season, so I get the hesitancy, but if he can get the walks under control, his stock could take off.
Matthew Liberatore: I'm bored before even starting his preview. Over 400 innings into his career, Liberatore has established himself as a 4.50 ERA talent. He's made no recent changes to prove he's anything different than that.
Javier Assad: In about 400 innings, Assad has found a way to keep his 3.50 ERA a run below his ERA estimators. Additionally, he's kept his WHIP in check over the last two seasons (1.15).
The biggest hindrance to his fantasy value is a 5.8 K/9 (seventh lowest value among pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings). Worth streaming when starting.
Tyler Mahle: When Mahle keeps the walks in check, he's a solid pitcher. But when he has a 3.5 BB/9 like this season, a 4.96 ERA and 1.40 WHIP happen.
He has been better since returning from the injured list, with a 3.06 ERA (4.31 xFIP) and 1.18 WHIP. The most obvious change is his 3.1 BB/9. Before going on the IL, he had a 3.8 BB/9. Also, he's throwing a bit harder, with his fastball velocity rising a tick from 92.2 mph to 93.2 mph.
He's definitely an arm I might add to stream from my bench.
JP Sears: He's been solidly average this season with a 3.86 ERA (4.28 xFIP), 1.18 WHIP and 7.4 K/9. That's streamable.
The improvement can be traced back to his fastball being up one mph and a 14-point jump in his groundball rate.
