MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Friday, September 18
Prior article 0-2 -2.00 units
Season 124-120-1 -1.29 units
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Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Best Bets and Predictions
Cubs vs. Reds Prediction, Odds & Betting Pick: Chicago Moneyline
The Cubs face the Reds at Great American Ball Park, with the Cubs moneyline offering an appealing betting angle. Chicago enters 85-68 compared with Cincinnati's 71-82 record, but the biggest reason to back the Cubs is how the Reds plan to handle starting pitcher Chase Burns.
Burns has been outstanding, going 15-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 181 strikeouts over 151.1 innings. However, Cincinnati is limiting his workload with the postseason out of reach. Burns has pitched exactly three innings in each of his last three starts, with left-hander Brandon Williamson following him each time.
That pitching plan creates an interesting matchup for Chicago. Over the last 30 days, the Cubs have produced a 134 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a .367 wOBA and .851 OPS. They've also posted a 122 wRC+ against lefties, so turning from Burns to Williamson doesn't give Cincinnati an obvious platoon advantage.
Williamson has also struggled this season, recording a 5.56 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 43.2 innings. If Burns again exits after three innings, Chicago should have opportunities to attack Cincinnati's pitching depth over the remaining six.
The Cubs have a solid pitching setup of their own. Clay Holmes enters with a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, while Chicago's primary relievers are well rested. Cincinnati's bullpen owns a 4.94 xFIP over the last 30 days, and several Reds relievers have accumulated meaningful workloads this week.
Burns is capable of giving Cincinnati three strong innings, but the Cubs don't need to beat Burns alone. They need to beat the Reds over nine innings.
With Chicago's offensive splits, stronger season-long profile and favorable pitching-depth setup, the Cubs moneyline is the preferred play.
Betting Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-125 or better)
Best Bet: Cubs ML for 1.50 unit (BetRivers -125)
Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
Braves vs. Astros Prediction, Odds & Betting Pick: Atlanta Moneyline
The Braves face the Astros at Daikin Park, with the Braves moneyline as the preferred betting angle. Atlanta is available around -120, a reasonable price for a team with advantages in overall performance, recent starting-pitcher metrics and bullpen availability.
Tyler Mahle gets the start for Atlanta opposite Houston right-hander Peter Lambert. Mahle's season numbers don't jump off the page, but his recent performance has been considerably better. He has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his seven starts since joining Atlanta.
The underlying numbers support that improvement. Over the last 30 days, Mahle owns a 3.08 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA, along with a 1.09 ERA. Lambert's recent results haven't been nearly as convincing underneath the surface, with a 4.55 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA during the same period. That gives Atlanta a meaningful starting-pitching advantage without relying solely on ERA.
Bullpen availability provides another edge. Atlanta's primary late-inning relievers enter Friday rested after not pitching Thursday. Houston used Bryan King and Josh Hader on Thursday, while several Astros relievers have worked multiple times this week. The underlying bullpen numbers are relatively close — Atlanta owns a 4.21 xFIP over the last 30 days compared with Houston's 4.29 — but the Braves have the fresher relief corps entering the series opener.
Price completes the case. The Braves moneyline is trading around -120, keeping Atlanta comfortably within a playable range. Rather than needing a multi-run victory from a road favorite, the moneyline allows the Braves' advantages in starting pitching and bullpen availability to play out over nine innings.
Lambert has pitched well enough to make Houston competitive, but Mahle's recent underlying performance, Atlanta's stronger season-long profile and the fresher bullpen give the Braves the better setup Friday night.
Betting Pick: Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-115 or better)
Best Bet: Braves ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -115)
Athletics at Cleveland Guardians Best Bets and Predictions
Athletics vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds & Betting Pick: Cleveland -1.5 Runs
The Athletics face the Guardians at Progressive Field, and Cleveland -1.5 runs is the preferred betting angle. With the Guardians priced close to -200 on the moneyline, moving to the run line provides a chance to back Cleveland at plus-money.
The starting pitching matchup is a major reason to consider the Guardians. Daniel Espino gets the ball for Cleveland opposite Mason Barnett, who enters 1-4 with a 7.08 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 40.2 innings. Barnett has allowed 42 hits, 24 walks and 12 home runs, making his problems about more than an inflated ERA.
Those baserunners are particularly important when laying 1.5 runs. Cleveland doesn't just need to win; it needs opportunities to create separation. Barnett's combination of walks and home runs gives the Guardians a path to producing a multi-run lead before the game reaches the later innings.
The bullpen matchup strengthens the Cleveland Guardians run-line case. Over the last 30 days, Cleveland's bullpen owns a 3.39 xFIP compared with Oakland's 4.19 mark. Cleveland also enters with its primary relievers rested, while Oakland used several bullpen arms Thursday. Yunior Tur threw 41 pitches, Chris Roycroft worked 27 and Geoff Hartlieb threw 18.
Weather conditions could further favor the team with the better pitching staff. The forecast calls for temperatures around 69 degrees with an 11-mph wind blowing in at Progressive Field. A slightly suppressed run environment could make it more difficult for Oakland to erase a deficit if Cleveland establishes an early lead.
Price completes the argument. Cleveland is trading close to -200 simply to win, while Guardians -1.5 is available around +110 to +117 Friday morning. That difference makes the run line a more appealing way to attack the matchup.
Barnett's problems with walks, home runs and baserunners give Cleveland opportunities to create separation, while a rested Guardians bullpen provides a favorable setup to protect that margin late.
Betting Pick: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 runs (+110 or better).
Best Bet: Guardians -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +110)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Cubs ML for 1.50 unit (BetRivers -125)
- Braves ML for 1.25 unit (FanDuel -115)
- Guardians -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +110)
