MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Friday, September 25
Prior article 0-3 -3.25 units
Season 129-124-1 -0.64 units
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Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Best Bets and Predictions
Braves 
vs. Marlins Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Back Atlanta Moneyline
The Braves have one of Friday's more favorable starting-pitching matchups, with a deep lineup drawing an Eury Perez who has struggled badly over the last month. With Grant Holmes pitching well and Atlanta holding additional advantages in lineup depth and bullpen conditions, Braves moneyline at -122 is the best bet.
Braves vs. Marlins Odds
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves ML (-122)
Total: 8.0 runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Atlanta opened around -122 before moving modestly toward the Braves at -125. The move hasn't been large enough to eliminate the value, particularly with Atlanta projecting to send out Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies.
Eury Perez's Recent Struggles Stand Out
Perez's 4.14 season ERA doesn't tell the full story. Over the last 30 days, the right-hander has posted a 10.13 ERA, 7.69 FIP, 5.97 xFIP and 5.26 SIERA. The poor underlying numbers are particularly important because they indicate his recent results haven't simply been driven by bad luck.
Atlanta's current hitters have also produced a .447 wOBA against Perez, with a .353 xwOBA across 78 plate appearances.
There is some reason to expect improvement. Perez owns a much better .315 xwOBA for the full season, but his recent deterioration makes this a difficult spot against Atlanta's projected lineup.
Grant Holmes Gives Braves an Edge
Holmes enters at 10-5 with a 3.47 ERA and has been even better recently, posting a 2.63 ERA over the last 30 days.
The bullpen matchup also favors Atlanta. Miami ranks in the bottom third of our recent bullpen metrics, and several Marlins relievers have accumulated significant workloads over the past few days. That becomes particularly important if Perez again struggles to work deep into the game.
Weather shouldn't be a factor with the game being played indoors at loanDepot park.
Braves vs. Marlins Best Bet
Atlanta combines the stronger projected lineup with the better recent starting-pitcher form and a favorable late-inning setup. Perez's recent underlying numbers provide the strongest reason to attack the matchup, while the modest move from -122 to -125 hasn't pushed the price too far.
Best Bet: Braves ML for 1.25 unit (BetRivers -122)
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Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
Rays 
vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Target Under 6.5
The Rays and Phillies meet in a matchup featuring Freddy Peralta and Cristopher Sanchez. With two starters capable of limiting damage, a weakened Tampa Bay lineup and weather conditions favoring pitchers, Under 6.5 runs is the best bet.
Rays vs. Phillies Odds
Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-104)
Moneyline: Rays +140 | Phillies -166
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
The total remains 6.5, with the under available around even money at several books. That low number leaves little margin for error, but the pitching matchup and run-scoring environment provide enough support to back the under.
Cristopher Sanchez Has an Excellent Matchup
Sanchez enters with an 18-6 record and 2.93 ERA, but his underlying numbers make an even stronger case. Over the last 30 days, the left-hander has posted a 3.69 FIP, 3.29 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA.
The matchup is particularly appealing against Tampa Bay's projected lineup. Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero lead the Rays, but the bottom half lacks the same offensive punch.
Sanchez has also dominated the current Tampa Bay hitters he has faced, holding them to a .116 wOBA and .187 xwOBA across 38 plate appearances. It's a small sample, but it supports an already favorable pitching matchup.
Freddy Peralta Can Keep Philadelphia in Check
Peralta's 4.56 season ERA is less impressive, but his recent results have been considerably better. He has allowed only three runs across his last five starts.
There are legitimate concerns. Peralta has struggled more on the road, and Philadelphia's projected lineup featuring Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm represents the biggest threat to the under.
Weather provides some assistance. Winds are expected to blow in at Citizens Bank Park, creating another modest advantage for run prevention.
Rays vs. Phillies Best Bet
Sanchez's matchup against Tampa Bay is the foundation of the play. Peralta doesn't need to completely shut down Philadelphia; he simply needs to prevent the Phillies from producing a crooked number.
With Sanchez pitching at home, Tampa Bay's projected lineup lacking depth and the wind working against hitters, Under 6.5 remains playable despite the unusually low total.
Best Bet: Phillies/Rays Under 6.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +100)
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Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Braves ML for 1.25 unit (BetRivers -122)
- Phillies/Rays Under 6.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +100)
