MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 22
Prior article 2-1 +0.75 units
Season 126-121-1 -0.54 units
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Los Angeles Angels at Athletics Best Bets and Predictions
Angels vs. Athletics Prediction: Back the A's on the Moneyline
The Athletics are one of my favorite moneyline bets on Tuesday's MLB slate as they host the Angels. With the game priced close to a pick'em, I'll back the A's in a matchup between left-handers Brady Basso and Yusei Kikuchi.
The biggest reason is the Angels' continued struggles against left-handed pitching. Over the last 30 days, Los Angeles has produced just an 81 wRC+, .285 wOBA and .651 OPS against lefties. The Angels have hit .228 in that split with a .123 ISO while striking out 24.0 percent of the time.
Basso doesn't need to dominate that lineup to give the A's a chance.
His 5.29 ERA over the last 30 days looks considerably worse than his underlying numbers. Basso has a 3.51 FIP and 4.15 xERA during that stretch while allowing only 0.53 home runs per nine innings. A .359 BABIP and 63.9 percent strand rate have also contributed to the inflated ERA.
There are concerns. Basso has struck out only 4.76 batters per nine innings, and his 4.61 xFIP isn't nearly as impressive as the FIP. He also hasn't worked deep into games recently, so the A's will likely need several innings from its bullpen.
That's not necessarily a bad thing. Athletics relievers have recorded a 3.47 ERA and 3.80 FIP over the last 30 days.
I'm more interested in attacking Kikuchi. The Angels left-hander has a 4.10 ERA, 4.88 FIP and 4.64 SIERA over the last 30 days. He's also walked 11.9 percent of the hitters he's faced during that span, creating additional opportunities for the A's offense that doesn't need to do much to justify this price.
The Athletics have been roughly league average against lefties recently, posting a 97 wRC+ and .319 wOBA. That's hardly dominant, but it's still a significant advantage compared to what the Angels have produced in the same split.
This isn't a matchup where I want to lay much juice. But at -105 or better, the A's combination of the better offensive matchup, Basso's encouraging underlying numbers and a solid recent bullpen is enough for me.
Best Bet: Athletics ML for 1 unit (Circa -105)
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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
White Sox vs. Royals Prediction: Back Chicago on the Moneyline
The White Sox are my favorite moneyline bet Tuesday as they visit the Royals. The price is reasonable, and the matchup against left-hander Daniel Lynch IV sets up particularly well for Chicago.
The White Sox have crushed left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, posting a 128 wRC+, .352 wOBA and .793 OPS. They've also shown some patience against lefties with a 13.9 percent walk rate while producing a .188 ISO.
Kansas City has been at the other end of the spectrum. The Royals rank last in baseball with a 59 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days. They've hit just .195 with a .260 wOBA and .596 OPS while striking out 26.4 percent of the time.
That makes this a good spot for White Sox starter Anthony Kay, whose recent ERA doesn't tell the whole story. Kay has a 6.18 ERA over the last 30 days, but his 4.62 FIP, 4.48 xFIP and 4.48 SIERA suggest he has pitched better than the results indicate.
I'm also not sold on Lynch's recent performance. His strikeout rate is just 11.7 percent over the last 30 days, and his 4.3 percent K-BB rate is accompanied by a 5.37 SIERA. Against a Chicago lineup hitting lefties this well, that's a concern.
There is plenty at stake for the White Sox as well. Chicago enters Tuesday one game behind Cleveland in the AL Central while continuing to battle for a postseason spot. Kansas City has already been eliminated. That isn't a reason by itself to bet Chicago, but at this point in September, I'd rather have the team with something meaningful to play for when the matchup already points in its direction.
Chicago has also won seven of 10 meetings with Kansas City this season.
At -120 or better, I'm willing to put a little more behind this one than a standard play. The recent platoon numbers provide the biggest edge, while Kay's underlying metrics make his ugly ERA easier to overlook.
Bet: White Sox ML (-120 or better) — 1.5 Units
Best Bet: White Sox ML for 1.5 units (Circa -112)
Best Bet: Rangers Team Total Over 3.5 Runs for 1.5 units (DraftKings -115)
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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction: Back the Under at Fenway Park
Best Bet: Guardians-Red Sox Under 7 (-132) — 1.25 Units
The Guardians and Red Sox have one of the lowest totals on Tuesday's slate, but I'm still willing to back the Under with the number available at seven.
The biggest reason is the starting pitching matchup between Parker Messick and Payton Tolle.
Tolle has been excellent over the last 30 days, posting a 2.74 ERA, 2.36 FIP and 2.52 SIERA. He's also struck out 34.8 percent of opposing hitters while walking just 5.4 percent, giving him an impressive 29.3 percent K-BB rate.
Messick has been nearly as good. The Cleveland left-hander owns a 2.76 ERA, 3.03 FIP and 3.19 SIERA during that span, along with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.8 percent walk rate.
Neither offense has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching recently.
Cleveland has an 89 wRC+ with a .296 wOBA and .673 OPS against lefties over the last 30 days. Boston has been even worse with an 86 wRC+, .298 wOBA and .675 OPS.
Messick has also been consistently limiting damage. He's allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts, including one run or fewer in five of his last six. Tolle enters Tuesday after allowing just one earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts.
Cleveland's bullpen gives me additional confidence in playing the full-game total. Guardians relievers have recorded a 2.29 ERA, 2.99 FIP and 2.90 SIERA over the last 30 days.
Conditions at Fenway should also favor pitching. Temperatures are expected to be around 58 degrees with the wind blowing in from center field and little threat of rain.
I wouldn't be nearly as interested if this total were 6.5. Getting seven is important because a 4-3 or 5-2 final becomes a push instead of a loss.
With two starters missing bats, two offenses struggling against lefties, Cleveland's strong bullpen and favorable weather, I'm willing to pay some juice for the protection provided by the seven.
Best Bet: Guardians/Red Sox Under 7 runs for 1.25 units (DraftKings -132)
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Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Athletics ML for 1 unit (Circa -105)
- White Sox ML for 1.5 units (Circa -112)
- Guardians/Red Sox Under 7 runs for 1.25 units (DraftKings -132)
