MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 28
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
Phillies vs. Braves Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: F5 Under 3.5 Runs
The Phillies vs. Braves Wild Card Game 1 matchup offers several intriguing betting options, but the best bet comes in the first five innings. With Chris Sale starting for Atlanta and Philadelphia positioned to use Jesus Luzardo and Andrew Painter, the pick is Phillies-Braves F5 Under 3.5 runs at -115 on DraftKings for 1.00 unit.
Sale enters the postseason in excellent form. The Atlanta left-hander allowed just six earned runs over 18.2 innings across his three September starts while posting an impressive 23:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He closed the regular season by striking out 10 without issuing a walk over 5.2 innings against Cincinnati.
The matchup also favors Sale. Philadelphia produced just a 96 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, along with a .719 OPS and .317 wOBA.
Philadelphia's pitching plan strengthens the case for a low-scoring start. Luzardo is expected to open before Painter works behind him, giving the Phillies an opportunity to change looks against Atlanta's lineup rather than asking one pitcher to navigate the order multiple times.
Painter's recent underlying numbers have been encouraging. Over the last 30 days, he posted a 25.0 percent strikeout rate, 3.49 ERA, 3.88 FIP and 3.43 xFIP. Pasted markdown Atlanta has also been league-average against right-handed pitching recently, producing a 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
The full-game Under 6.5 is another viable Phillies vs. Braves betting angle, but the F5 market provides a cleaner path by removing Philadelphia's bullpen from the equation.
With Sale in excellent form and Philadelphia able to deploy Luzardo and Painter aggressively, the pitching setup creates a strong case for fewer than four runs through five innings.
Best Bet: Phillies/Braves UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: F5 Under 3.5 Runs
The Red Sox vs. Yankees Wild Card Game 1 matchup features two starting pitchers in excellent form, making the first five innings our preferred MLB Wild Card betting pick. After evaluating the Red Sox vs. Yankees odds, the best bet is F5 Under 3.5 runs at -140 on DraftKings for 0.75 units.
Cam Schlittler enters the postseason following a dominant regular season. The Yankees right-hander finished with a 1.95 ERA and 239 strikeouts over 193.2 innings. He was especially sharp down the stretch, posting a 1.20 ERA, 2.13 FIP and 2.42 xFIP over the last 30 days, along with a 34.5 percent strikeout rate and just a 6.4 percent walk rate.
The matchup also favors Schlittler. Boston has struggled against right-handed pitching recently, producing just a 92 wRC+ with a .694 OPS and .306 wOBA over the last 30 days. Schlittler also had success against Boston during the regular season, including 5.2 scoreless innings in his Aug. 28 start.
Payton Tolle provides a strong counter for Boston. The left-hander finished the regular season with a 3.03 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 148.2 innings. His recent underlying numbers were even better, including a 2.70 ERA, 2.12 FIP, 2.98 xFIP and 30.6 percent strikeout rate over the last 30 days.
New York has been considerably better against left-handed pitching, posting a 118 wRC+ over the last 30 days, so Tolle faces the more difficult offensive matchup. However, his ability to generate strikeouts and limit walks gives him the tools to prevent a big inning early.
The full-game Under 6.5 is another viable betting angle, but the F5 market concentrates the wager on the strongest part of the handicap: two starting pitchers performing at a high level.
With Schlittler dominating recently and Tolle bringing strong strikeout and run-prevention numbers into the postseason, the starting-pitching matchup creates a strong case for fewer than four runs through five innings.
Best Bet: Red Sox/Yankees UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -140)
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
White Sox vs. Astros Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Chicago Moneyline
The White Sox vs. Astros Wild Card Game 1 matchup offers an intriguing opportunity to back the road underdog. After evaluating the White Sox vs. Astros odds, pitching plans and market movement, the best bet is Chicago on the moneyline at +110 on BetMGM for 1.0 unit.
The market movement is one of the most interesting parts of the handicap. Chicago opened around +123 and has moved to +102, while Houston has fallen from roughly -148 to -123. That move has occurred despite the Astros attracting approximately 61 percent of the moneyline bets and 76 percent of the handle at DraftKings.
That combination — majority action on Houston while the price moves toward Chicago — adds another reason to consider the White Sox at close to even money.
Chicago's pitching plan is another factor. Left-hander Hagen Smith is expected to open after an impressive finish to the regular season. Smith's ability to generate strikeouts gives Chicago a chance to disrupt Houston early before turning the game over to Erick Fedde and its bullpen.
Houston's pitching arrangement carries more uncertainty. AJ Blubaugh is expected to open, and his September performance was inconsistent. Chicago doesn't need to dominate offensively at this price; it simply needs to keep the game close enough for its pitching depth to matter.
The White Sox also finished with the better regular-season record at 84-78, while Houston went 81-81, becoming the first team in a full season to reach the postseason without a winning record.
Houston owns home-field advantage and considerable postseason experience, but we're getting essentially even money on a Chicago team with a favorable pitching setup and notable market support in the price movement.
With the moneyline moving significantly toward Chicago despite heavier betting action on Houston, the White Sox offer value in Game 1.
Best Bet: White Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +110)
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
Cubs vs. Padres Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Over 7.5 Runs
The Cubs vs. Padres Wild Card Game 1 matchup presents several betting options, but the recent offensive splits point toward the total as the strongest angle. After evaluating the Cubs vs. Padres odds, starting pitching and recent offensive trends, the best bet is Over 7.5 runs for 1.0 unit.
Chicago's production against right-handed pitching provides the first reason to back the Over. Over the last 30 days, the Cubs have generated a 125 wRC+, .809 OPS and .352 wOBA against right-handers, while striking out just 19.1 percent of the time.
That creates an interesting matchup against Padres starter Michael King. The right-hander finished the regular season with a 3.21 ERA, but his recent underlying numbers haven't been nearly as impressive. King posted a 4.35 xFIP and 4.40 SIERA over the last 30 days, suggesting some regression risk against a Chicago lineup swinging the bat well.
San Diego's matchup against Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd is even more appealing. The Padres have crushed left-handed pitching recently, producing a 134 wRC+, .836 OPS and .362 wOBA over the last 30 days. San Diego has also struck out just 19.0 percent of the time against lefties during that stretch.
Boyd's recent peripherals provide another reason to expect scoring. His 4.09 xFIP and 4.63 SIERA over the last 30 days indicate considerably more vulnerability than his surface results suggest.
Petco Park traditionally suppresses offense, but the matchup-specific numbers outweigh that concern. Both offenses enter Game 1 with substantial platoon advantages, while neither starter's recent underlying metrics are as strong as his overall ERA suggests.
With Chicago producing at an elite level against right-handers and San Diego doing even more damage against lefties, the offensive matchups create multiple paths for this game to reach eight runs.
Best Bet: Cubs/Padres OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -115)
Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Phillies/Braves UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Red Sox/Yankees UNDER 3.5 runs F5 for 0.75 unit (DraftKings -140)
- White Sox ML for 1 unit (BetMGM +110)
- Cubs/Padres OVER 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Caesars -115)
