MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 23
Prior article 3-0 +3.15 units
Season 129-121-1 +2.61 units
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New York Mets at Texas Rangers Best Bets and Predictions
Mets vs. Rangers Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Back Texas Moneyline
Opening Line: Rangers -115
Current Line: Rangers -105
Total: 7.5
Betting Splits: Rangers 42% bets, 82% money
Best Bet: Rangers ML -105
This game features a favorable matchup for Texas against New York starter Nolan McLean. With left-hander Cody Bradford starting for the Rangers, Texas also gets an important matchup advantage against a Mets offense that has struggled considerably against southpaws.
Mets vs. Rangers Odds and Line Movement
Texas opened around -115 and is currently available near -105, a modest move toward New York rather than Texas.
The more interesting market indicator comes from the betting splits. The Rangers are receiving only 42 percent of moneyline bets but 82 percent of the money. New York has attracted the majority of tickets, but Texas is drawing substantially more of the handle.
Betting splits alone aren't a reason to make a wager, but the disparity between ticket count and money adds another data point to an already favorable Texas matchup.
Pitching Matchup Favors Texas
McLean has pitched well overall, but his recent underlying numbers haven't been quite as dominant. Over the last 30 days, he owns a 3.89 xERA and 4.23 xFIP while issuing 4.13 BB/9.
Bradford's biggest advantage comes from the matchup. Over the last 30 days, the Mets have produced just a 72 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, compared with a 124 wRC+ against right-handers. That dramatic platoon split makes Bradford a particularly interesting matchup against an otherwise productive New York offense.
Texas also enters with the more favorable bullpen-availability situation. Several Mets relievers worked Tuesday, while the Rangers have more fresh options available behind Bradford.
Weather won't complicate thispick. Globe Life Field is listed as a domed environment, eliminating wind and precipitation as meaningful variables.
Mets vs. Rangers Best Bet
New York's struggles against left-handed pitching are the centerpiece of the handicap. Add McLean's elevated recent walk rate, Texas' bullpen situation and the substantial money-versus-ticket discrepancy, and the Rangers offer value at the current price.
Texas is playable up to -135, with the current -105 price offering an attractive entry point for one of the stronger MLB picks today.
Best Bet: Rangers ML for 1.25 units (The Score -105)
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Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Guardians vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Back Cleveland Moneyline
Opening Line: Guardians +109
Current Line: Guardians +113
Total: 7
Betting Splits: Guardians 66% bets, 17% money
Best Bet: Guardians ML +113
This prediction centers on getting plus-money value with Cleveland despite Boston receiving significant market support. Foster Griffin starts for the Guardians opposite Sonny Gray, but Cleveland's recent offensive splits and elite bullpen give the underdog multiple paths to win at Fenway Park.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Odds and Line Movement
Cleveland opened around +109 and has moved to approximately +113, while Boston has moved from roughly -132 to -136. The movement has therefore gone toward the Red Sox.
The betting splits also favor Boston from a money perspective. One current split shows Cleveland receiving 66 percent of the tickets but only 17 percent of the money, leaving Boston with 83 percent of the handle.
Rather than following that movement, the current number creates a better entry point on a Cleveland team with several underlying matchup advantages.
Matchup Gives Cleveland Value
Gray enters with excellent surface numbers, but his recent underlying performance hasn't been as dominant. Over the last 30 days, Gray owns a 2.96 ERA but a 5.10 xERA, with 3.33 BB/9.
Cleveland's offense has also performed well against right-handed pitching recently. The Guardians have produced a 114 wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days, while Boston has managed only an 87 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the same period.
The biggest Cleveland advantage comes after Griffin exits. The Guardians own a 3.02 FIP and 3.34 xFIP over the last 30 days, giving Cleveland one of baseball's strongest recent bullpens.
Weather should favor run prevention. Fenway is expected to be around 57 degrees with a 14-mph wind blowing in, with temperatures falling during the game.
Guardians vs. Red Sox Best Bet
Boston has the stronger market support and Gray has the better surface numbers, but Cleveland's recent platoon offense, Gray's regression indicators and the Guardians' bullpen create an attractive underdog price.
At plus money, Cleveland offers enough matchup advantages to make the Guardians moneyline one of the stronger underdog MLB picks today.
Best Bet: Guardians ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +114)
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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction, Odds & Best Bet: Take Tampa Bay Moneyline
Opening Line: Rays +118
Current Line: Rays +128 to +133
Total: 6.5–7
Betting Splits: Rays 12% bets, 42% money
Best Bet: Rays ML +128 or better
This prediction targets Tampa Bay as a sizable road underdog against Gerrit Cole and New York. Ian Seymour starts for the Rays, and while the Yankees present a difficult matchup against left-handed pitching, Cole's recent underlying numbers and Tampa Bay's bullpen create enough value to back the plus-money side.
Rays vs. Yankees Odds and Line Movement
Tampa Bay opened around +118, with New York approximately -142. The market has moved strongly toward the Yankees, pushing Tampa Bay into the +128 to +133 range and New York as high as the -150s at some sportsbooks.
DraftKings betting splits also show heavy public support for New York. The Yankees are receiving 88 percent of moneyline tickets but 58 percent of the handle, leaving Tampa Bay with only 12 percent of bets but 42 percent of the money.
That discrepancy is notable. The Yankees are attracting the overwhelming majority of tickets, but Tampa Bay's average wager is considerably larger.
Pitching Matchup Creates Rays Value
Seymour's recent ERA doesn't tell the entire story. Over the last 30 days, he has a 5.31 ERA but a 3.79 xERA and 3.19 xFIP, accompanied by an excellent 11.95 K/9 and 1.77 BB/9.
Cole has gone in the opposite direction. His last-30-day numbers include a 5.34 ERA, 5.71 xERA and 5.89 FIP, with 2.83 HR/9.
New York's 130 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days is the biggest concern for Tampa Bay, but the Rays can counter with a bullpen that owns a 3.74 FIP and 3.88 xFIP during that span.
Weather could also help the underdog. Yankee Stadium is expected to have temperatures in the low 60s with a significant wind blowing in, creating a more pitcher-friendly environment.
Rays vs. Yankees Best Bet
New York has received the market support, but the current price has become increasingly expensive given Cole's recent performance. Seymour's underlying numbers, Tampa Bay's bullpen and the growing underdog price provide enough value to go against the market.
At this price, Rays ML offers one of the more attractive plus-money underdog opportunities among today's MLB picks.
Best Bet: Rays ML for 1 unit (The Score +135)
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Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Rangers ML for 1.25 units (The Score -105)
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +114)
- Rays ML for 1 unit (The Score +135)
