MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Wednesday, September 30
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Season 134-125-1 +2.56 units
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
Phillies vs. Braves Best Bet: Braves First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 Runs
Bet: Braves First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 Runs (-125, DraftKings)
Risk: 1.25 units
Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for Philadelphia in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series, and his matchup against an Atlanta lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching creates my favorite betting angle in this game. I'm taking the Braves First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 runs at -125 on DraftKings for 1.25 units.
Atlanta's recent numbers against lefties have been ugly. Over the last 30 days, the Braves have produced just a 56 wRC+, .252 wOBA and .566 OPS against left-handed pitching, while striking out 25.1 percent of the time. The power has also disappeared, with Atlanta posting only a .102 ISO and 3.4 percent barrel rate during that stretch.
Those struggles aren't simply the product of bad luck. Atlanta has a .239 xwOBA against lefties over the same period, which is actually worse than its .252 wOBA.
That sets up well for Sanchez. The Phillies left-hander finished the regular season with a 2.91 ERA and 231 strikeouts over 207 innings, and his underlying numbers remained strong down the stretch. Sanchez also generated groundballs at an elite rate, an important weapon against an Atlanta offense that does much of its damage by driving the ball in the air.
The First 5 market is also preferable to Atlanta's full-game team total because it removes Philadelphia's bullpen from the equation. The Phillies' relief corps struggled during September, so this wager allows us to focus entirely on the strongest matchup: Sanchez against the Braves.
Atlanta can score once through five innings and this ticket still cashes. With the Braves struggling against lefties and Sanchez's skill set matching up well against their lineup, Braves First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 at -125 is worth 1.25 units.
Best Bet: Braves F5 UNDER 1.5 runs for 1.25 units (DraftKings -125)
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
Red Sox vs. Yankees Best Bet: Red Sox Team Total Under 2.5 Runs
Boston's offensive struggles make the Red Sox team total another attractive way to attack Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series. I'm taking the Red Sox Team Total Under 2.5 runs at +114 on DraftKings for 0.5 units.
The matchup begins with Max Fried, and Boston's recent performance against left-handed pitching has been one of the weakest offensive profiles on Wednesday's playoff slate. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox have recorded just a 72 wRC+, .277 wOBA and .616 OPS against lefties, with a .115 ISO and 24 percent strikeout rate.
The contact numbers aren't particularly encouraging, either. Boston has generated only a 29.3 percent hard-contact rate against lefties during that stretch.
Fried is well equipped to extend those problems. The Yankees left-hander finished the regular season with a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, and his recent underlying performance has been similarly impressive, including a 2.41 xERA over our recent sample.
Boston's broader offensive trend adds another reason to play the Under. The Red Sox averaged only 2.7 runs per game over their final 21 regular-season games, scoring two runs or fewer 10 times during that stretch. They followed that by producing only three hits in a 9-0 Game 1 loss.
There is some late-inning bullpen risk with a full-game team total, which is why this is a smaller wager. But the price compensates for that concern.
Rather than laying heavy juice on another Boston Under market, we're getting plus money for the Red Sox to finish with two runs or fewer.
Given Boston's recent offensive form and its struggles against left-handed pitching, Red Sox Team Total Under 2.5 at +114 is worth 0.5 units.
Best Bet: Red Sox UNDER 2.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +114)
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
White Sox vs. Astros Best Bet: White Sox First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 Runs
Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston with its season on the line in Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series, and his matchup against the White Sox creates my favorite betting angle in this game. I'm taking the White Sox First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 runs at -115 on DraftKings for 1.15 units.
Brown enters the postseason pitching some of his best baseball. Over his final seven regular-season starts, the Astros right-hander went 3-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 52 strikeouts across 38.2 innings, allowing two earned runs or fewer six times. He finished the season with a 3.19 ERA over 20 starts.
The matchup has also treated Brown well. He faced Chicago twice during the second half and went 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 13 innings. For his career, Brown owns a 2.39 ERA in six starts against the White Sox.
The recent underlying data makes the matchup even more appealing. Brown has posted a 2.53 xERA, 1.96 FIP and 2.27 xFIP over his recent sample while striking out 34.2 percent of opposing hitters. His 62.3 percent groundball rate gives Chicago another obstacle when trying to generate an early crooked number.
The White Sox have also struck out 26 percent of the time against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days while producing an 87 wRC+.
Chicago scored six runs in Game 1, but Wednesday presents a completely different pitching challenge after Houston used a bullpen game in the opener.
With Brown's recent form and history against Chicago, White Sox First 5 Team Total Under 1.5 at -115 is worth 1.15 units.
Best Bet: White Sox F5 UNDER 1.5 runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
San Diego's offense broke out in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series, and I'm looking for the Padres to carry that momentum into Wednesday's matchup against Kevin Gausman. I'm taking the Padres First 5 Team Total Over 2.5 runs at +124 on DraftKings for 0.75 units.
The Padres couldn't have looked much better Tuesday, pounding out eight runs in an 8-0 victory over Chicago. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts each homered, while San Diego had five players record multiple hits.
Gausman presents a different challenge, but his recent numbers contain plenty of volatility. Over his last 27.1 innings, the right-hander has posted a 5.27 ERA and allowed 2.63 home runs per nine innings. His underlying numbers are considerably better, including a 2.47 xFIP and 2.80 SIERA, but his 44.7 percent hard-hit rate and recent home-run issues are concerning against this lineup.
There is also a health question. Gausman injured his non-throwing shoulder during his final regular-season start and acknowledged this week that he doesn't feel completely normal, although he believes he's healthy enough to pitch.
San Diego has also been swinging the bat well against right-handed pitching. Over the last 30 days, the Padres have produced a 118 wRC+, .339 wOBA and .783 OPS against righties, with a .272 batting average and .175 ISO.
The price is important. We need San Diego to score three times before the end of the fifth, but we're getting +124 rather than laying significant juice on a lower team total.
With San Diego's recent production, Gausman's volatility and the plus-money return, Padres First 5 Team Total Over 2.5 at +124 is worth 0.75 units.
Best Bet: Padres F5 OVER 2.5 runs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +124)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Braves F5 UNDER 1.5 runs for 1.25 units (DraftKings -125)
- Red Sox UNDER 2.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +114)
- White Sox F5 UNDER 1.5 runs for 1.15 units (DraftKings -115)
- Padres F5 OVER 2.5 runs for 0.75 unit (DraftKings +124)
