MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 14
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Season 101-98-1 -1.92 units
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Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
The Red Sox vs. Pirates matchup Friday features an intriguing pitching battle between Jake Bennett and Bubba Chandler at PNC Park. With Hard Rock offering Under 8.5 runs at -120, the total is my preferred MLB betting pick for tonight's 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch.
Bennett provides the foundation for the Red Sox-Pirates Under 8.5 prediction. The Boston left-hander enters 7-5 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 76.2 innings, while his 3.14 FIP provides further support for his strong run prevention. Bennett has been even better away from Fenway Park, recording a 2.87 ERA over 37.2 innings in six road starts.
The matchup also favors Bennett. Pittsburgh owns an 89 wRC+ against left-handed pitching compared to 111 against right-handers, while Bennett has produced a 3.21 xERA over his last five appearances. He's also allowed only 0.62 HR/9 during that stretch and generated a 3.2 percent barrel rate over the last month.
Chandler's 4.26 ERA and 1.38 WHIP aren't as impressive, but his recent form gives the under another path. The right-hander has allowed only two earned runs across 11.2 innings in August, and he owns a 0.92 ERA across 19.2 career August innings.
Pittsburgh's bullpen is the primary concern, with the relief corps carrying a 4.47 FIP recently. However, Boston's bullpen has posted a 2.78 xERA over its last 60 innings, giving the under stronger late-game support from the Red Sox side.
The 8.5-run total at Hard Rock is particularly attractive because other major sportsbooks are dealing this game closer to 8. That extra half-run turns an eight-run final into a winning ticket instead of a push. Weather shouldn't hurt the wager either, with temperatures in the 70s, minimal wind and little rain expected at PNC Park.
Bennett's underlying metrics, Pittsburgh's struggles against lefties and Chandler's recent improvement make this a strong run-suppression setup.
Best Bet: Red Sox/Pirates Under 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -120)
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
The Diamondbacks vs. Braves matchup Friday features Brandon Pfaadt against Chris Sale at Truist Park. Atlanta deserves to be favored behind its ace, but with Arizona available around +175 on the moneyline, the Diamondbacks offer intriguing underdog value.
Sale enters 12-7 with a dominant 2.20 ERA and 151 strikeouts, while Atlanta owns a 73-48 record and impressive 41-21 mark at home. Arizona counters with Pfaadt, who is 6-1 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The Diamondbacks enter at 64-58, including 28-31 on the road.
Sale is obviously the biggest obstacle to an Arizona moneyline bet, but the Diamondbacks have been one of baseball's hottest offenses against left-handed pitching. Arizona is batting .303 against southpaws over the last 30 days and has produced an .885 OPS against lefties since July 31. That recent success makes this a much more interesting matchup than Sale's 2.20 ERA alone might suggest.
Pfaadt also gives Arizona a legitimate opportunity to keep the game close. The right-hander has posted a 1.55 ERA over his last seven starts, ranking fourth among qualified starters during that stretch. His recent FIP and xERA have both been below 3.00, and he hasn't allowed a home run over his last 145 batters faced. Pfaadt is also coming off seven scoreless innings against the Dodgers, allowing only two hits and two walks.
There is risk on the Arizona side, particularly after the Diamondbacks recently designated struggling closer Paul Sewald for assignment. But that bullpen uncertainty is reflected in a price that requires Arizona to win only about 37 percent of the time at +175.
This isn't a bet against Sale's ability. It's a bet that the gap between these teams and starting pitchers isn't large enough to justify Atlanta being priced around -210. Arizona's recent production against lefties combined with Pfaadt's excellent form creates a legitimate path to an upset.
Best Bet: Dbacks ML for 1 unit (Hard Rock +175)
Washington Nationals at New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
The Nationals vs. Mets matchup features Andrew Alvarez against Robert Stock at Citi Field. With the total sitting at 8.5 runs, the Over is the preferred MLB betting pick in a matchup featuring two offenses capable of taking advantage of vulnerable pitching.
Stock is the biggest reason to target the Nationals-Mets Over 8.5. The Mets right-hander enters 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA and 2.13 WHIP through eight innings. Stock has allowed 12 hits and five walks while recording eight strikeouts, and his latest outing was particularly concerning. Pittsburgh tagged him for eight earned runs over three innings in a 9-0 Mets loss.
That's a dangerous profile against one of baseball's most productive offenses. Washington enters with a .252 average, .328 OBP and .441 slugging percentage, while its 662 runs and 177 home runs demonstrate the lineup's combination of power and run production. The Nationals are also 33-27 away from home, making this more than simply a favorable starting-pitching matchup.
Alvarez provides more resistance on the other side. The Washington left-hander owns a 3.76 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 69.1 innings, with 65 strikeouts against 32 walks. He's also produced a 3.10 ERA in four second-half appearances. However, New York's offense has recently come alive, leading MLB in both home runs and wRC+ since August 4. Francisco Lindor has also posted an .886 OPS with six homers in 25 games since the All-Star break.
The bullpens add another reason to prefer offense. Washington carries a 4.72 team ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season, creating opportunities for New York even if Alvarez pitches effectively early.
Recent scoring trends support the matchup as well. Washington and New York have averaged 11.7 combined runs over their last five games, while the Over is 6-3-1 across the last 10 meetings between these NL East opponents.
Stock's struggles give Washington significant scoring upside, while the Mets' recent power surge provides the second half of the equation.
Best Bet: Nationals/Mets Over 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -110)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Red Sox/Pirates Under 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -120)
- Diamondbacks ML for 1 unit (Hard Rock +175)
- Nationals/Mets Over 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -110)
