MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 21
Prior article 1-2 -1.35 units
Season 105-103-1 -2.62 units
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
Pirates vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds & MLB Picks: Bet Pittsburgh ML and +1.5
The Pirates visit the Dodgers, and the sizable underdog price creates an opportunity to attack Pittsburgh two ways. My Pirates vs. Dodgers betting strategy is 0.5 unit on the Pirates moneyline and 0.5 unit on Pittsburgh +1.5 runs.
First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium, with Bubba Chandler facing Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Pittsburgh is around +213 on the moneyline and even money +1.5, while Los Angeles is approximately -223.
Yamamoto presents a difficult matchup with a 2.60 ERA and 0.895 WHIP, but Chandler's recent improvement makes Pittsburgh intriguing at this price. The Pirates right-hander owns a 2.16 ERA across three August appearances, while Pittsburgh is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
The bigger reason to avoid laying runs with Los Angeles is the Dodgers' poor performance against the run line. Despite its 77-51 overall record and status as one of baseball's strongest teams, Los Angeles has repeatedly failed to reward bettors paying premium prices, particularly as a home favorite.
That's the foundation of this wager. The Dodgers' poor home-favorite run-line record and negative ROI show why simply laying -1.5 with an elite team can be costly. Pittsburgh doesn't need to be the better team over 162 games; it only needs to keep Friday's game competitive.
Splitting one total unit provides two paths to profit. The 0.5-unit wager on Pirates +1.5 offers protection if Los Angeles wins by one run, while the 0.5-unit moneyline bet preserves significant upside if Pittsburgh pulls the outright upset.
Chandler's recent improvement makes that possibility more attractive than Pittsburgh's season-long numbers suggest.
For bettors searching Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions, odds and MLB picks for Friday, fading an expensive Dodgers side offers the better value.
Best Bet: Pirates ML for 0.5 unit (Hard Rock +210); Pirates +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (Hard Rock +100)
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San Francisco Giants at Boston Red Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Giants vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds & MLB Pick: Under 7.5 Runs
The Giants and Red Sox open a three-game series at Fenway Park, and a strong starting pitching matchup makes Under 7.5 runs my preferred prediction and one of my top MLB picks today.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, with Logan Webb opposing Sonny Gray. The latest Giants vs. Red Sox odds have the total at 7.5 runs, with Boston installed as a sizable home favorite.
Webb enters 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and has elevated his performance recently. The right-hander is 2-0 with a microscopic 0.90 ERA across three August starts, surrendering only two earned runs in 20 innings. His ability to limit damaging contact and keep the ball in the park is especially valuable at hitter-friendly Fenway.
Boston counters with Gray, who enters 15-3 with a 2.65 ERA. He has also remained sharp recently, going 5-2 with a 2.72 ERA over his last seven starts while strengthening his case as an American League Cy Young contender.
The Fenway Park weather forecast provides another reason to favor the Under. Temperatures should be around 70 degrees at first pitch, with winds expected to blow inward rather than provide assistance to fly balls. Current forecasts also call for mostly cloudy conditions around game time.
That matters in a park where weather can significantly alter the run-scoring environment. Instead of warm temperatures and a favorable breeze helping hitters, Friday's conditions should be relatively friendly to Webb and Gray.
Boston's offense has been dangerous recently, but Webb represents a major challenge, while Gray gives the Giants an equally difficult assignment. With two quality starters, limited free baserunners and weather that should not enhance power, scoring opportunities could be scarce.
For bettors searching Giants vs. Red Sox predictions, odds and MLB picks for August 21, the pitching and weather both point toward the same wager.
Best Bet: Giants/Red Sox Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -115)
Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers Best Bets and Predictions
Braves vs. Brewers Prediction, Odds & MLB Pick: First Five Under 2.5 Runs
The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers meet Friday, August 21, in one of the premier pitching matchups on the MLB slate. With Chris Sale opposing Jacob Misiorowski at American Family Field, Under 2.5 runs in the first five innings is my preferred Braves vs. Brewers prediction and one of my top MLB picks today.
First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET, and the full-game total sits at just six runs, illustrating how much respect the betting market has for the two starting pitchers.
Sale enters the matchup at 12-8 with a 2.16 ERA, putting together another dominant season for Atlanta. The left-hander also brings excellent swing-and-miss ability and command into a matchup against Milwaukee. The contact data strengthens his case, as opposing Brewers hitters project for limited home-run damage against Sale.
Misiorowski has been even more difficult to solve. The Milwaukee right-hander enters Friday 12-5 with an MLB-best 1.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, giving the Brewers an overpowering weapon against an Atlanta offense that ranks in the bottom third of MLB in offensive production.
That creates an ideal setup for a first-five wager. Instead of relying on either bullpen to protect a full-game Under, the F5 Under 2.5 places the handicap almost entirely on two of baseball's best starting pitchers.
Sale and Misiorowski currently own the two lowest ERAs in MLB, making this a rare matchup in which both offenses face an ace from the opening pitch. The low full-game total reinforces the expectation that scoring opportunities could be difficult to generate.
For bettors searching Braves vs. Brewers odds, predictions and MLB picks for Friday, the starting pitching matchup provides the clearest betting angle.
Best Bet:Braves/Brewers Under 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Pirates ML for 0.5 unit (Hard Rock +210); Pirates +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (Hard Rock +100)
- Giants/Red Sox Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -115)
- Braves/Brewers Under 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
