MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, August 28
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San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Predictions
Padres vs. Rays Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Tampa Bay on the Moneyline
The Padres vs. Rays prediction points toward the home team, with the Rays moneyline at -126 on FanDuel Sportsbook standing out among Friday's MLB picks. Tampa Bay enters the series opener 79-54 overall and an impressive 43-23 at Tropicana Field, while San Diego is 72-62 and 31-34 on the road.
Padres vs. Rays Prediction: McClanahan Has the Edge
Shane McClanahan gives Tampa Bay an advantage in the starting-pitching matchup. The left-hander enters Friday 9-6 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 99 strikeouts over 107.1 innings. Opponents are batting just .209 against him, and McClanahan tossed five scoreless innings against Baltimore in his most recent start.
Casey Mize counters with a 5-7 record, 3.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those season-long numbers are solid, but Mize has struggled recently, allowing opponents to produce a .906 OPS over the last 28 days. He also suffered a right ankle sprain in his previous start before being cleared to pitch Friday.
The RotoWire projection data provides another edge for Tampa Bay, with McClanahan projected for 29.18 fantasy points compared to 26.53 for Mize.
Padres vs. Rays Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay also owns the stronger offensive profile. The Rays lead MLB with a .260 team batting average while San Diego is hitting .238. Tampa Bay has scored 595 runs compared to 569 for the Padres and owns advantages in both on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
The Rays have been particularly difficult to beat at Tropicana Field, winning 43 of 66 home games. They are also 55-32 when listed as moneyline favorites this season, a .632 winning percentage.
Padres vs. Rays Best Bet
At -126, Tampa Bay needs to win approximately 55.8 percent of the time to break even. That's an attractive threshold considering the Rays' home performance, offensive advantage and the edge McClanahan provides over Mize.
With Tampa Bay sitting atop the AL East and McClanahan coming off five scoreless innings, the Rays are worth backing at a manageable price Friday night.
Best Bet: Rays ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -126)
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Houston Astros at New York Mets Best Bets and Predictions
Astros vs. Mets Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Houston on the Moneyline
The Astros vs. Mets prediction for Friday night points toward the road favorite, with the Astros moneyline at -105 on FanDuel Sportsbook standing out among Friday's MLB picks. Houston enters the series opener 67-67 but sits atop the AL West, while New York is 60-74 and has dropped four of its last five games.
Astros vs. Mets Prediction: Brown Gives Houston the Edge
Hunter Brown gets the start for Houston against Christian Scott. Brown enters Friday 3-3 with a 3.51 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 76 strikeouts over 74.1 innings, while Scott is 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
The RotoWire projection data provides a more significant separation between the starters. Brown is projected for 32.47 fantasy points, the third-highest pitching projection on Friday's slate, compared to 26.25 for Scott. That six-point gap is one of the strongest starting-pitching advantages available at a playable moneyline price.
Astros vs. Mets Betting Analysis
Houston also owns the stronger offensive profile. The Astros have scored 613 runs compared to 552 for the Mets, while holding advantages in batting average (.242 to .236), on-base percentage (.317 to .306) and slugging percentage (.412 to .389). Houston's 179 home runs also rank among the highest totals in baseball.
New York's lineup is also dealing with significant injuries. Juan Soto and Mark Vientos are on the injured list, while Bo Bichette is listed as day-to-day with a hand injury.
The Mets have struggled despite playing at Citi Field, going just 31-37 at home, while Houston owns a winning 34-32 road record.
Best Bet: Houston Astros ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis Cardinals Best Bets and Predictions
Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Pittsburgh on the Moneyline
The Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction for Friday night points toward the road team, with the Pirates moneyline at -110 on FanDuel Sportsbook standing out among Friday's MLB picks. Pittsburgh enters the NL Central matchup at 65-70, while St. Louis is 67-68 and just 33-36 at Busch Stadium.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Prediction: Jones Has the Edge
Jared Jones gets the ball for Pittsburgh against Cardinals left-hander Quinn Mathews. Jones enters Friday 2-5 with a 4.76 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 77 strikeouts across 68 innings, but his underlying numbers suggest he's pitched better than the ERA indicates. His 3.68 xERA is more than a run lower than his actual ERA.
Mathews has endured a difficult introduction to the majors, going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.79 WHIP across 14 innings. His underlying numbers are better, but he's yet to win through his first three MLB starts.
The RotoWire projection data also favors Pittsburgh, projecting Jones for 27.78 fantasy points compared to 26.23 for Mathews.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Betting Analysis
Pittsburgh's offense gets an opportunity against a left-hander who remains relatively inexperienced at the MLB level. Six projected Pirates hitters are expected to hold the platoon advantage over Mathews, who is making his first career start at Busch Stadium.
The Pirates also enter this series having won two of three in San Diego, including consecutive victories in which their pitching staff allowed only two total runs. St. Louis, meanwhile, is just 3-7 over its last 10 games.
Pirates vs. Cardinals Best Bet
At -110, Pittsburgh needs to win approximately 52.4 percent of the time to break even. That's an attractive threshold given the starting-pitching projection advantage and Mathews' early MLB struggles.
With Jones' underlying metrics pointing toward positive regression and Pittsburgh getting the more favorable price, the Pirates are worth backing Friday night.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Tampa Bay Rays ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -126)
- Houston Astros ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -110)
