MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 11
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Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
The Mariners and Yankees open a three-game series at Yankee Stadium, with Bryan Woo facing Ryan Weathers. Seattle has the more highly regarded starter on paper, but Woo's road performance combined with the Mariners' recent struggles creates an opportunity to back Yankees moneyline at a reasonable price.
Mariners vs. Yankees Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline
Woo enters Tuesday with an 8-8 record and 4.31 ERA, and his overall numbers make him a potentially difficult matchup. However, his performance away from Seattle has been considerably less convincing, creating a more favorable situation for a Yankees lineup that gets the benefit of Yankee Stadium.
Weathers gives New York an opportunity to keep the game close from the other side. The left-hander enters with a 5-7 record and 3.79 ERA and has rebounded after struggling earlier this summer. Seattle's offense also hasn't been particularly dangerous against left-handed pitching recently.
Over the last 30 days, the Mariners have produced only a 90 wRC+ against lefties, ranking near the bottom of MLB. Seattle has hit .224 with a .298 OBP and .375 slugging percentage in that split.
New York's offense has been much more productive against right-handed pitching. The Yankees own a 102 wRC+ against righties over the last 30 days, giving them the offensive advantage in Tuesday's matchup.
Recent form also favors New York. Seattle enters Yankee Stadium on a four-game losing streak, while the Yankees are coming off a series victory over Atlanta. The Yankees also won two of three games when these teams met in Seattle earlier this season.
Most importantly, bettors aren't being asked to pay an excessive price. New York opened around -130 and remains in that neighborhood, making the Yankees attractive compared to several larger favorites on Tuesday's MLB slate.
Woo is capable of making this a difficult matchup, but Seattle's struggles against left-handed pitching, New York's offensive advantage and Yankee Stadium tilt the value toward the home team.
Best Bet: Yankees ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -124)
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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Best Bets and Predictions
The Guardians and Tigers meet at Comerica Park in an AL Central matchup featuring Tanner Bibee against Drew Anderson. Detroit is a modest home favorite, and while Cleveland owns the traditional starting-pitching advantage, the Tigers' likely bullpen-heavy approach combined with their recent offensive surge makes Detroit moneyline one of Tuesday's more appealing MLB bets.
Guardians vs. Tigers Best Bet: Tigers Moneyline
Anderson is making only his fourth start of the season, so bettors shouldn't evaluate this as a conventional Anderson-versus-Bibee matchup. The Tigers appear positioned to use Anderson for a limited workload before turning the game over to their bullpen. He lasted just 3.2 innings in his previous start but held Seattle scoreless.
Anderson has also succeeded against Cleveland in a similar role, throwing 4.2 scoreless innings with seven strikeouts against the Guardians earlier this season.
Bibee is the bigger challenge. The Cleveland right-hander owns a 3.85 ERA and has been excellent against Detroit, recording a 1.32 ERA across 34 innings in five starts against the Tigers over the last two seasons.
However, his recent underlying numbers create some reason for optimism. Since June 1, Bibee has a 4.29 ERA, 4.02 xERA and 4.69 FIP, suggesting his matchup history shouldn't automatically discourage a Detroit wager.
The Tigers also enter with the stronger offensive profile. Detroit has produced a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, compared to Cleveland's 97 wRC+. More importantly, Detroit returns home after going 7-2 on a West Coast road trip while scoring 66 runs.
The market isn't requiring bettors to pay an excessive price for that advantage, with Detroit sitting around the -120 range.
Bibee may have the starting-pitching edge, but Detroit doesn't need Anderson to match him for six innings. A manageable bullpen game, combined with the hotter lineup and home-field advantage, makes the Tigers the preferred side.
Best Bet: Tigers ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays Best Bets and Predictions
The Red Sox and Blue Jays meet at Rogers Centre, and the betting market has already made a strong statement about the expected scoring environment. The total opened at 7.5 runs before dropping to 7, while some sportsbooks have already reached 6.5. That early movement toward the under makes Red Sox-Blue Jays Under 7 one of Tuesday's most intriguing MLB bets.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Best Bet: Under 7 Runs
Dylan Cease provides the foundation for the play. The Toronto right-hander enters with a 2.28 ERA and has been even better recently. Since June 1, Cease has recorded a 0.84 ERA, 2.02 xERA and 1.93 FIP, while averaging 11.72 strikeouts per nine innings.
Boston's recent performance against right-handed pitching strengthens the matchup. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox have posted only a 93 wRC+ against righties, ranking 27th in MLB during that span.
Patrick Sandoval doesn't offer Cease's dominant profile, but he gets an excellent matchup on the other side. Toronto ranks last in MLB with a 76 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, batting .212 with a .288 OBP and .333 slugging percentage.
The market appears to be noticing those advantages. Circa currently lists the total at seven runs, with the under priced at -105. The downward movement from an opener of 7.5 — combined with some books reportedly reaching 6.5 — is a notable indicator that respected money may be targeting the under.
Monday's series opener provided another example of the offensive limitations, as Toronto won just 2-1.
Getting seven rather than 6.5 is important because a 4-3 result becomes a push instead of a loss. With Cease pitching at an elite level, both offenses struggling in their respective platoon matchups and the market moving downward, Under 7 remains the preferred wager before the number disappears.
Best Bet: Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 7 runs for 1 unit (Circa Sports -105)
Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Yankees ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -124)
- Tigers ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -120)
- Red Sox/Blue Jays Under 7 runs for 1 unit (Circa Sports -105)
