MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 18
Prior article 1-2 -0.25 units
Season 102-100-1 -1.92 units
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Athletics at Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
The Royals vs. Athletics matchup Tuesday at Kauffman Stadium features one of the biggest starting-pitching mismatches on today's MLB betting slate. With Daniel Lynch facing Jack Perkins, the Royals moneyline at -143 is my best bet.
Lynch enters 4-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, giving Kansas City a significant advantage on the mound. The left-hander has consistently limited baserunners and draws a favorable matchup against an Athletics team that enters just 49-76.
Perkins has endured a much different season. The Athletics right-hander is 2-9 with a 7.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, making him one of the most vulnerable starters on Tuesday's slate. Even more concerning for Oakland bettors, the Athletics have been moneyline underdogs in six of Perkins' starts this season and lost all six games.
Kansas City's offense also showed signs of life in Monday's series opener. The Royals collected 13 hits in a 9-5 victory, with Bobby Witt Jr. delivering a two-run homer and RBI double while scoring four runs.
The lineup also received an important boost with Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino returning from the injured list. Garcia immediately contributed an RBI single Monday, adding more depth around Witt in the Kansas City lineup.
For bettors searching for MLB picks today, the Royals moneyline is preferable to laying 1.5 runs. Kansas City doesn't need another offensive explosion to cash this wager; it simply needs to win.
With Lynch holding a substantial starting-pitching advantage over Perkins and Kansas City's lineup getting healthier, the Royals are positioned to take the first two games of this series.
Royals vs. Athletics Prediction: Royals 6, Athletics 3
Best Bet: Royals ML for 1 unit (Caesars -134)
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Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
The Tigers vs. Pirates matchup at PNC Park offers one of the more appealing totals on today's MLB betting slate. With Keider Montero facing Braxton Ashcraft, the Tigers vs. Pirates Under 8 runs is my best bet.
Montero enters Tuesday at 9-7 with a 3.22 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Detroit right-hander has consistently limited traffic on the bases, and his underlying numbers provide another reason to trust him in this matchup. Montero owns a 3.04 expected ERA in our pitching data and has done an excellent job limiting home-run damage.
Ashcraft provides an equally compelling reason to target the Tigers vs. Pirates over/under. The Pittsburgh right-hander is 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA, while our data shows a 1.11 WHIP, 27.0 percent strikeout rate and only a 5.7 percent walk rate.
That combination of strikeouts and control should give Ashcraft an opportunity to work deep into Tuesday's game without consistently putting runners on base.
The pitching matchup becomes even more important after Monday's series opener produced 13 runs in Detroit's 8-5 victory. The Tigers jumped ahead early and collected 14 hits, but Tuesday presents a substantially different starting-pitching environment.
Weather also shouldn't provide much assistance to the offenses. Conditions at PNC Park are expected to be around 78 degrees with no rain and winds of approximately four mph.
For bettors searching for MLB picks today, getting the full eight runs is valuable. The Tigers vs. Pirates total is currently 8, with the Under around -110, meaning exactly eight runs results in a push rather than a loss.
With Montero limiting baserunners and Ashcraft combining excellent control with strikeout upside, Tuesday's matchup profiles much differently than Monday's slugfest.
Tigers vs. Pirates Prediction: Pirates 4, Tigers 3
Best Bet: Tigers/Pirates Under 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Predictions
The Blue Jays vs. Rays matchup at Tropicana Field features one of the stronger starting-pitching combinations on today's slate. With Jose Soriano facing Nick Martinez, the Blue Jays vs. Rays Under 7.5 runs is my best bet.
Soriano enters 9-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. The right-hander has been particularly sharp recently, allowing one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Soriano's underlying numbers also support his success. Our pitching data gives him a 3.77 expected ERA and 24.2 percent strikeout rate, providing Toronto with a starter capable of generating strikeouts and limiting extended rallies.
Martinez presents an equally compelling reason to target the Blue Jays vs. Rays over/under. The Tampa Bay right-hander enters 12-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He's been particularly effective against Toronto this season, going 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in their previous meetings.
Toronto's offense strengthens the case for a lower-scoring game. The Blue Jays have scored just 492 runs this season, while producing only 116 home runs with a .304 on-base percentage. Toronto has also hit just six home runs over its last 10 games while slugging only .349 during that stretch.
The biggest drawback is getting 7.5 rather than a full eight. However, the Blue Jays vs. Rays total remains 7.5, with the Under priced around -110.
With Soriano pitching well, Martinez dominating Toronto this season and the Blue Jays continuing to show limited power, Tuesday's matchup has the ingredients for a low-scoring game.
Best Bet: Blue Jays/Rays Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -105)
Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Tigers/Pirates Under 8 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Royals ML for 1 unit (Caesars -134)
- Blue Jays/Rays Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -105)
