MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 25
Prior article 2-2 +0.05 units
Season 107-105-1 -2.57 units
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Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
Pirates vs. Padres Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back the Under at Petco Park
The Pirates and Padres meet Tuesday night at Petco Park in a matchup built around starting pitching and run prevention. The Pirates vs. Padres prediction points toward a low-scoring game with Paul Skenes facing Michael King at 9:40 p.m. ET. Skenes enters 9-11 with a 3.95 ERA, while King is 8-9 with a 3.38 ERA.
Pirates vs. Padres Odds and Best Bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (Hard Rock -115)
The Pirates vs. Padres odds have the total set at 7.5 runs, and even with such a low number, there is enough pitching on both sides to favor the under. The market was still dealing Under 7.5 around -115 Tuesday morning.
Skenes remains one of baseball's premier strikeout pitchers. He owns a 29.8 percent strikeout rate, 1.14 WHIP and 3.21 expected ERA in the pitching data entering Tuesday. His ability to miss bats and limit damaging contact gives Pittsburgh an excellent chance to keep San Diego's offense under control.
King provides a strong answer for the Padres. His 3.38 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are backed by a 4.25 expected ERA, and he draws an excellent matchup against a struggling Pittsburgh lineup. The Pirates have generated just an 81 wRC+ over the last 30 days, placing them near the bottom of MLB during that span.
The bullpen matchup strengthens the case. Over the last 30 days, San Diego relievers have produced a 2.60 ERA and 2.79 FIP, while Pittsburgh's bullpen owns a 3.06 ERA and 3.11 FIP. That reduces the likelihood of a late-inning bullpen collapse ruining an otherwise low-scoring game.
With Skenes capable of suppressing San Diego and King facing one of baseball's coldest offenses, scoring opportunities should be limited. Two excellent recent bullpens make the under even more attractive once the starters exit.
Prediction: Padres 3, Pirates 2
Best Bet: Pirates/Padres Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -115)
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers Best Bets and Predictions
Rays vs. Tigers Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Tampa Bay on the Moneyline
The Rays and Tigers continue their series Tuesday night at Comerica Park, and the Rays vs. Tigers prediction favors Tampa Bay behind Ian Seymour against Jackson Jobe. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay enters at 78-53, while Detroit has fallen to 61-70 after dropping Monday's series opener 4-1.
Rays vs. Tigers Odds and Best Bet
Best Bet: Rays Moneyline (-125 at DraftKings)
The Rays vs. Tigers odds offer a reasonable price on the better team, particularly considering Detroit's recent slide. The Tigers have lost six consecutive games and nine of their last 10, while Tampa Bay has strengthened its position atop the AL East.
Seymour's recent improvement makes Tampa Bay particularly appealing. The left-hander has recorded a 3.52 ERA over his last four starts, producing three quality starts and two victories during that stretch. His underlying profile is also encouraging. Seymour owns a 29.2 percent strikeout rate and 1.14 WHIP in our pitching data, giving him the swing-and-miss ability to navigate a Detroit lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense.
Jobe carries considerably more uncertainty. The right-hander is making just his fourth start since returning from Tommy John surgery, and his three outings have produced mixed results. He was hit for six runs over 3.2 innings against the White Sox before rebounding with 5.1 innings of one-run ball against Pittsburgh.
While Jobe's 4.50 ERA isn't alarming by itself, his 6.46 expected ERA in our pitching dataset points toward significant downside. That's a dangerous profile against a Tampa Bay club that owns MLB's best team batting average and enters Tuesday with substantial advantages in recent form and starting-pitcher stability. Tampa Bay also held Detroit to one run Monday, with its bullpen delivering three scoreless innings.
With Seymour trending upward and Detroit struggling badly, Tampa Bay offers enough value at this price to warrant another road investment.
Prediction: Rays 5, Tigers 3
Best Bet: Rays ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bets and Predictions
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Chicago on the Moneyline
The Cubs and Diamondbacks meet Tuesday night at Chase Field, and the Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction favors Chicago at a near-even price. Clay Holmes faces Brandon Pfaadt at 9:40 p.m. ET after the Cubs opened the series with a 7-0 victory Monday. Chicago has now won all four meetings with Arizona this season.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Odds and Best Bet
Best Bet: Cubs Moneyline (-104 at FanDuel)
The Cubs vs. Diamondbacks odds make Chicago a slight road favorite, and there is enough separation in recent offense, bullpen performance and lineup strength to justify laying -112.
Chicago has been one of baseball's hottest offenses, producing a 122 wRC+, .348 wOBA and .462 slugging percentage over the last 30 days. The Cubs are 19-11 during that stretch and enter Tuesday after scoring 26 unanswered runs over their last two games.
Holmes gives Chicago another advantage. The right-hander owns a 2.49 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, compared to Pfaadt's 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Pfaadt remains a legitimate obstacle, but his recent form provides some reason for concern. After an extended strong stretch, he surrendered five runs over 5.1 innings in his most recent outing.
The bullpen matchup further favors Chicago. Over the last 30 days, Cubs relievers have recorded a 3.01 ERA, while Arizona's bullpen sits at 4.58. That becomes particularly important in a game where the starting pitchers could keep things close into the middle innings.
Arizona is also playing without Ketel Marte, who is on the injured list with left knee inflammation. Marte leads the Diamondbacks with 67 RBI, and Arizona is 3-4 without him after managing only five singles in Monday's shutout loss.
Pfaadt gives Arizona a legitimate chance to keep this competitive, and Chicago's historical struggles at Chase Field provide some downside. However, the Cubs' superior recent offense, bullpen advantage, Holmes' consistency and Marte's absence create multiple paths to victory.
Prediction: Cubs 4, Diamondbacks 3
Best Bet: Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Pirates/Padres Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -115)
- Rays ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Cubs ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -104)
