MLB Best Bets Today: Betting Picks for Tuesday, September 1
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Tuesday's MLB betting board has produced several notable moves, but the biggest theme is money concentrating on a handful of favorites while sharp action is showing up on several underdogs.
Texas has generated one of the strongest moves. The Rangers opened around -178 to -190 depending on the book and have climbed toward -198 to -210 against the Athletics. That is meaningful movement for an already substantial favorite and indicates the market continues to buy Texas.
San Diego has also strengthened, moving from roughly -125 to -134 against Cincinnati. Pittsburgh has seen smaller support behind Paul Skenes, moving from approximately -156 to -158, while Baltimore has moved from the mid-130s toward -143 at Colorado.
The more interesting signals may be the games where handle and ticket percentages disagree. Milwaukee is attracting 96 percent of the moneyline handle despite only 41 percent of bets against the Cubs. Seattle has only 23 percent of moneyline tickets against Boston but 62 percent of the handle. Arizona is another sharp-looking underdog, drawing 71 percent of moneyline money despite only 24 percent of tickets against Philadelphia.
Overall, Texas is today's clearest steam move, while Milwaukee, Seattle and Arizona are the most interesting potential sharp-money signals heading toward first pitch.
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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
Brewers vs. Cubs Prediction: Over 10 Runs Is Tuesday's Best Bet
The Brewers and Cubs meet Tuesday night at Wrigley Field, and Over 10 runs is the best betting angle. Chicago enters at 78-60 after crushing Milwaukee 17-3 in Monday's opener, while the Brewers remain atop the NL Central at 85-53. The total opened at 10, and while that number remains available, several sportsbooks have already moved to 10.5.
Chicago's offense provides the obvious starting point. The Cubs blasted a franchise-record nine home runs Monday and have now gone Over in four of their last five games. Chicago averages 5.4 runs per game and has hit 196 home runs this season, giving it considerable upside against Milwaukee left-hander Robert Gasser.
Gasser enters 4-5 with a 4.59 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Although he allowed only one earned run in his most recent start, he has surrendered 82 hits in 82.1 innings this season. Facing a Cubs lineup that ranks among baseball's most productive offenses is a considerably more difficult assignment.
Milwaukee also has a path to doing significant damage against Matthew Boyd. The Cubs left-hander owns a respectable 3.99 ERA overall, but his August numbers tell a different story. Boyd posted a 6.12 ERA across four August starts, allowing eight home runs in only 25 innings while opponents slugged .531 with an .867 OPS. Milwaukee averages 5.0 runs per game, giving the Brewers enough offense to carry their share of the scoring.
The market movement adds another reason to like the Over. The total opened at 10, but 10.5 is now appearing across multiple sportsbooks. Bettors able to secure 10 gain valuable protection because exactly 10 runs results in a push rather than a loss.
With Chicago's offense surging, Gasser facing a difficult matchup and Boyd showing significant August regression, both teams have realistic paths to five-plus runs.
Best Bet: Brewers/Cubs Over 10 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -106)
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St Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets and Predictions
Cardinals vs. Dodgers Prediction: Back St. Louis Over 3.5 Runs
The Cardinals open a three-game series against the Dodgers, and Cardinals Over 3.5 team runs is the best betting angle. Los Angeles enters as a sizable home favorite, but St. Louis has an appealing matchup against left-hander Eric Lauer that makes the Cardinals' team total more attractive than taking a side.
Lauer enters Tuesday at 8-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but his underlying numbers provide even more reason to attack this matchup. The Dodgers left-hander owns a 4.77 xERA, 5.80 FIP and 5.32 xFIP, suggesting his results haven't been particularly unlucky. His 31.3 percent ground-ball rate also creates opportunities for a Cardinals lineup capable of producing damage against left-handed pitching.
St. Louis has been considerably better against southpaws than its overall offensive numbers suggest. Since June 1, the Cardinals have posted a 101 wRC+ against left-handed pitching while producing the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. The recent numbers are even more encouraging: St. Louis owns a 115 wRC+ versus lefties over the last 30 days, while ranking eighth in hard-hit rate and seventh in BB/K ratio during that stretch.
The Cardinals are also 24-18 against left-handed starters this season, compared with 44-52 against right-handers. That substantial split reinforces why this particular matchup is more favorable than St. Louis' overall offensive profile might indicate.
The full-game market has moved into the 8.5-to-9 range, while Cardinals Over 3.5 is available around -125 to -130. With Los Angeles priced near -180 on the moneyline, bettors are paying heavily for the Dodgers' overall team strength. The St. Louis team total allows us to isolate the more attractive part of the matchup.
Lauer's shaky peripherals combined with St. Louis' improved production and contact quality against left-handers creates a strong path to four runs.
Best Bet: Cardinals Over 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates Best Bets and Predictions
Giants vs. Pirates Prediction: Back Under 7.5 Runs in Pittsburgh
The Giants and Pirates open a three-game series at PNC Park, and Under 7.5 runs is the best betting angle. Pittsburgh is roughly a -158 favorite, but the pitching matchup between Paul Skenes and Logan Webb makes attacking the total more appealing than laying a sizable moneyline price.
Skenes enters 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA and 175 strikeouts over 145 innings, averaging an impressive 10.9 K/9. His recent performance has been even better than his season numbers: opponents have produced just a .582 OPS against him over the last 28 days. San Francisco also enters averaging only 4.09 runs per game this season, creating an excellent matchup for Pittsburgh's ace.
Webb provides San Francisco with an equally compelling reason to expect limited scoring. The right-hander owns a 3.72 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and opponents have managed only a .628 OPS against him this season. Webb has also allowed just 11 home runs over 147.2 innings. He held Cincinnati to two runs over six innings in his latest start.
The matchup-specific numbers make Webb particularly interesting Tuesday. Current Pirates hitters have combined for only a .211 average and .234 wOBA in 62 career plate appearances against him, with Webb striking out 38.7 percent of those batters.
The market has kept the total at 7.5, with Under prices ranging from approximately -105 to -122 across sportsbooks. The opener was Under 7.5 at -118, meaning bettors still retain the valuable hook above seven rather than being forced to play Under 7.
With Skenes' swing-and-miss ability, Webb's command and home-run suppression, and a San Francisco offense averaging barely four runs per game, scoring opportunities should be difficult to sustain.
Best Bet: Giants/Pirates Under 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -107)
Tuesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Brewers/Cubs Over 10 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -106)
- Cardinals Over 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Giants/Pirates Over 7.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -107)
