MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 19
Prior article 2-1 +0.65 units
Season 104-101-1 -1.27 units
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
Dodgers vs. Rockies Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Target the Over at Coors Field
The Dodgers vs. Rockies prediction for Wednesday targets another offensive game at Coors Field. With Roki Sasaki facing Kyle Freeland and both offenses producing throughout the series, the Over 11.5 runs is my best bet in this NL West matchup.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Odds
Los Angeles is approximately a -190 to -200 moneyline favorite, with Colorado around +165 to +175. The total sits at 11.0-11.5 runs.
Best Bet: Dodgers-Rockies Over 11.0
The first two games provide compelling evidence for another high-scoring contest. Los Angeles won 11-5 Monday and 7-6 Tuesday, producing 29 combined runs across the two games. Both contests cleared Wednesday's 11.5-run total.
Freeland provides the clearest path to another offensive outburst. The Colorado left-hander enters 4-10 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He has also struggled badly against Los Angeles this season, posting a 14.00 ERA in two starts.
Sasaki hasn't been dominant enough to assume Colorado stays quiet. The right-hander carries a 4.46 ERA and 1.29 WHIP, and he's recorded a 5.06 ERA across two previous appearances against the Rockies.
The Dodgers' offense is also heating up. Shohei Ohtani has homered three times in the first two games of the series, while Los Angeles generated six extra-base hits Tuesday. Colorado contributed 10 hits in the 7-6 loss and scored three times over the final two innings.
Los Angeles' bullpen adds another variable. Closer Edwin Díaz was placed on the injured list with a neck issue after recording a 12.91 ERA over 7⅔ innings since returning from his previous IL stint. Tanner Scott has moved back into the closer role.
This isn't simply a Coors Field play. Recent scoring, both starting-pitcher profiles and the potential for late runs create multiple paths to 12-plus runs.
Dodgers vs. Rockies Prediction: Over 11.0
Best Bet: Dodgers/Rockies Over 11.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -112)
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Best Bets and Predictions
Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Tampa Bay on the Run Line
The Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction highlights Tampa Bay's advantage on the mound and at home. With Drew Rasmussen facing Max Scherzer at Tropicana Field, the Rays -1.5 run line is my best bet rather than paying the expensive Tampa Bay moneyline.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Odds
Tampa Bay is roughly a -200 moneyline favorite, while the Rays -1.5 is available around even money and the total sits at 7.5 runs.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100 or better)
Rasmussen provides the foundation for the wager. The right-hander enters 12-5 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, compared to Scherzer's 1-5 record, 6.59 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
The matchup becomes even more compelling when considering Rasmussen's recent form. He has surrendered just two runs over his last 25 innings, continuing a season in which his elite command has been a major weapon. His 4.5 percent walk rate is also the lowest of his career.
Scherzer's season numbers are ugly, but his recent improvement shouldn't be ignored. The veteran has allowed only four earned runs over his last 16.1 innings. That rebound adds some risk to laying 1.5 runs, but Rasmussen's combination of season-long dominance and current form still gives Tampa Bay the pitching advantage.
The Rays also bring an impressive 42-22 home record into Wednesday, while Toronto sits below .500 on the road. Toronto won Tuesday's opener 10-5 with 17 hits, but much of that damage came against Nick Martinez, who surrendered six runs in 3.2 innings. Rasmussen represents a significant upgrade.
With Tampa Bay's moneyline carrying a prohibitive price, moving to the run line provides a much better potential return.
Blue Jays vs. Rays Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+100 or better)
Best Bet: Rays -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +111)
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds Best Bets and Predictions
Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction, Odds and Best Bet: Back Cincinnati Behind Chase Burns
The Cardinals vs. Reds prediction centers on a sizable starting-pitching advantage for Cincinnati. With Chase Burns opposing Matthew Liberatore at Great American Ball Park, the Reds moneyline is my best bet for this NL Central matchup.
Cardinals vs. Reds Odds
Cincinnati is currently around -140 to -146 on the moneyline, with St. Louis approximately +128 and the total at 8.5 runs.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-146 or better)
Burns provides the foundation for the wager. The right-hander enters Wednesday 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA, compared to Liberatore's 5-10 record and 5.07 ERA. Burns has also accumulated 151 strikeouts, while Liberatore has 116.
The underlying pitching metrics strengthen Cincinnati's advantage. Burns owns a 1.09 WHIP, 28.7 percent strikeout rate and 6.7 hits allowed per nine innings. His 112 Stuff+ also gives him another significant advantage over Liberatore's 98.
Liberatore presents a much more favorable matchup for the Cincinnati offense. The left-hander has a 1.48 WHIP and has allowed 10.0 hits per nine innings, creating considerable traffic on the bases. That's particularly concerning at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Cincinnati also has the opportunity to capitalize on a St. Louis bullpen that has carried an elevated workload during a series that included Monday's doubleheader. The Cardinals then used four relievers while shutting out Cincinnati 3-0 Tuesday.
The price has climbed from approximately Reds -138 earlier Wednesday to around -146, providing some market confirmation of Cincinnati's pitching advantage. Even at the higher number, Burns' dominance compared to Liberatore makes the moneyline preferable to requiring Cincinnati to cover -1.5 runs.
Cardinals vs. Reds Prediction: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline (-146 or better)
Best Bet: Reds ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -140)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Dodgers/Rockies Over 11.0 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -112)
- Rays -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +111)
- Reds ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -140)
