MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, August 26
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Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins Best Bets and Predictions
The Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins matchup Wednesday night offers one of the stronger moneyline opportunities on the MLB betting slate. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park, with Sonny Gray facing Ryan Gusto. With the Red Sox moneyline available at -128 on FanDuel, Boston is the preferred bet in our Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction today.
Boston enters Wednesday at 73-59, while Miami sits at 67-66. The bigger story is what the Red Sox have done since June 25. Boston owns an MLB-best 40-13 record (.755) during that span, turning a team that was 14 games below .500 into a legitimate contender. The Red Sox have also won five straight and eight of their last nine.
The starting-pitching matchup provides another advantage. Gray is 16-3 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, compared with Gusto's 0-3 record, 4.37 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Gray also owns the better xERA, 3.62 to 4.29.
Boston's offense has been elite recently. Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox lead MLB with a 126 wRC+, accompanied by a .274 average, .358 OBP, .460 slugging percentage and .818 OPS. Miami ranks 15th with a 99 wRC+ and .713 OPS.
The bullpen situation creates further separation. Boston relievers own a 2.19 ERA and 2.90 FIP over the last 30 days, compared with Miami's 4.25 ERA and 4.27 FIP. Miami's relief corps is also taxed after using seven relievers in Tuesday's 11-inning, 7-3 loss, while Boston closer Aroldis Chapman was rested and should be available Wednesday.
That's particularly important because Gusto hasn't consistently provided length. He's averaged only 14 outs over his four August starts, potentially forcing Miami back into its bullpen early.
Boston's MLB-best record since June 25, league-leading recent offense, Gray's starting-pitching advantage and superior bullpen create multiple paths to victory. At -128, the Red Sox need to win approximately 56.1% of the time to break even, a reasonable threshold given those advantages.
MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Moneyline (-128)
For Wednesday's Red Sox vs. Marlins pick, back Boston at -140 or better.
Best Bet: Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -128)
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Baltimore Orioles at St Louis Cardinals Best Bets and Predictions
The Baltimore Orioles vs. St. Louis Cardinals matchup Wednesday night offers one of the better near-pick'em spots on the MLB betting slate. First pitch is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium, with Kyle Bradish facing Michael McGreevy. With the Orioles moneyline at -105 on Caesars, Baltimore is the preferred bet in our Cardinals vs. Orioles prediction today.
Baltimore enters Wednesday at 64-68, while St. Louis is 66-67. The Orioles are 30-34 on the road, while the Cardinals are just 32-35 at home. Baltimore has also won three of its last five games, while St. Louis enters on a four-game losing streak.
Bradish enters at 7-12 with a 3.70 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 129 strikeouts across 138.2 innings. McGreevy has the better surface numbers with a 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, but Bradish owns the superior swing-and-miss profile. His 22.0% strikeout rate tops McGreevy's 17.0%, giving Baltimore the starter with more ability to escape trouble without relying on balls in play.
Baltimore also owns a slight recent offensive edge. Over the last 30 days, the Orioles have produced a 100 wRC+ compared with 97 for St. Louis, while slugging .407 versus .385 for the Cardinals. Baltimore's .303 OBP and 24.7% strikeout rate are concerns, but the Orioles have generated more damage when they make contact.
The bigger separation comes from the bullpens. Over the last 30 days, Baltimore relievers have posted a 3.31 xERA and 3.29 FIP, compared with a 4.39 xERA and 4.72 FIP for St. Louis. The Orioles bullpen has also allowed just 0.50 HR/9, while Cardinals relievers sit at 1.27 HR/9. St. Louis has a 4.98 bullpen ERA and -0.6 WAR over that span.
The Orioles vs. Cardinals odds essentially price this game as a coin flip. A -105 moneyline carries an implied probability of about 51.0%, and Baltimore has enough advantages in starting-pitcher strikeout ability, recent power and bullpen quality to clear that threshold.
MLB Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (-105)
For Wednesday's Cardinals vs. Orioles pick, back Baltimore at -110 or better.
Best Bet: Orioles ML for 1 unit (Caesars -105)
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox Best Bets and Predictions
The Texas Rangers vs. Chicago White Sox matchup Wednesday night presents an intriguing opportunity to fade the first two high-scoring games of this series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET at Rate Field, with MacKenzie Gore facing Sean Burke. With Under 8.5 runs available at -120 on Hard Rock Bet, the extra half-run makes the under our preferred Rangers vs. White Sox prediction today.
Texas enters Wednesday at 66-67, while AL Central-leading Chicago is 69-63. These teams have combined for 31 runs through the first two games, with Texas winning 11-2 Monday before Chicago answered with an 11-7 victory Tuesday. Wednesday, however, features a significantly more appealing starting-pitching matchup for an under.
Gore carries a 4.26 ERA, but his underlying numbers are better, including a 3.80 xERA and 26.0% strikeout rate. He's also allowed three runs or fewer in six consecutive starts, posting a 2.57 ERA across 35 innings during that stretch.
Burke counters with a 3.27 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 158 strikeouts across 146 innings. His underlying profile is similarly impressive, including a 3.56 xERA, 3.46 FIP and 26.5% strikeout rate. Both starters therefore bring the swing-and-miss ability needed to limit sustained rallies.
Texas' recent offense provides another reason to look under. Over the last 30 days, the Rangers rank 21st with a 90 wRC+, producing a .224 average, .303 OBP and .670 OPS. Chicago has been better, ranking eighth with a 104 wRC+ and .725 OPS, but its 25.2% strikeout rate creates an appealing matchup for Gore.
The key is the number. The broader betting market has moved to 8 runs, with FanDuel dealing Under 8 at -110 and other books sitting around the same total. Getting 8.5 at -120 on Hard Rock provides an important extra half-run of protection despite paying additional juice.
After 31 runs in two games, it's tempting to chase another slugfest. Instead, Gore's improved form, Burke's strong season and two strikeout-friendly offensive matchups make Wednesday's series finale an attractive regression spot.
MLB Best Bet: Rangers vs. White Sox Under 8.5 Runs (-120, Hard Rock Bet)
Back the Under 8.5 at -125 or better Wednesday night.
Best Bet: Rangers/White Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -120)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -128)
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (Caesars -105)
- Rangers/White Sox UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (Hard Rock -120)
