MLB Best Bets Today: Player Props for Monday, September 7

MLB Betting Expert Juan Pablo Aravena reviews the holiday baseball schedule Monday, offering up a trio of picks and predictions.
MLB Best Bets Today: Player Props for Monday, September 7
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Monday's MLB slate offers a strong mix of pitching and hitting opportunities, and three wagers stand out thanks to favorable matchups and current form. We've highlighted a strikeout prop featuring one of the AL's most dominant starters, an under on a talented young arm facing a difficult assignment and a total bases play for one of baseball's premier all-around stars. 

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Best MLB Bets Today

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins  

Perez has enjoyed another impressive season, but this matchup presents a tougher path to a big strikeout total than the line suggests. The Mets have done a better job limiting strikeouts against quality pitching in recent weeks, often forcing opposing starters to work deep into counts rather than chasing pitches out of the zone. 

The Mets rank tied for ninth in fewer strikeouts as a team in the last 30 days with 212 on 26 games, and that doesn't bode well for Perez's chances. After all, Perez has also become more focused on efficiency and on pitching to contact when ahead, rather than always chasing punchouts. That approach could easily result in another quality outing without reaching six strikeouts, making the plus-money under an appealing value play.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals

Few players impact a game offensively like Witt, and this matchup sets up well for another multi-base performance. The Royals shortstop has remained the catalyst for Kansas City's lineup throughout the second half of the season, and he's been putting up excellent numbers of late. He topped the over on 1.5 total bases in each of the three games against the Blue Jays over the weekend. He launched a homer Friday, recorded a double Saturday and tallied two hits, including another two-bagger, Sunday. 

Witt has hit safely in nine of his last 11 games, slashing .256/.327/.419 with a homer and four doubles while clearing the line of over 1.5 total bases five times in that stretch. He's seeing the ball extremely well, and that should favor Witt's chances of staying hot in this series opener Monday against a Diamondbacks team that has a 3.83 collective ERA over the last 30 days.

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Toronto Blue Jays  vs. The Athletics

Cease continues to rank among baseball's elite strikeout pitchers, and getting plus money on him to record at least eight punchouts is difficult to pass up. The Blue Jays right-hander enters Monday with a 2.25 ERA and a career-high 12.7 K/9 across 156.1 innings, and it's hard not to like his chances against a struggling Athletics lineup that will be missing several key contributors. 

Even though Cease took a step in the wrong direction the last time out after recording "only" four strikeouts against the Guardians on Sept. 2, it's worth noting he has cleared the line of over 7.5 punchouts in his previous three starts -- and has at least seven strikeouts in 19 of his last 20 starts dating back to May 2. If Cease works into the sixth or seventh inning as he often does, this number is well within reach, making the over in strikeouts one of the strongest pitcher props on the board. 

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MLB Picks Recap

  • Mets vs. Marlins: Eury Perez Under 5.5 strikeouts (+102 FanDuel)
  • Diamondbacks vs. Royals: Bobby Witt Over 1.5 total bases (-125 BetRivers)
  • Blue Jays vs Athletics: Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (+102 DraftKings)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
37-year-old sports analyst, betting writer and journalist. Fan of every single sport on this earth, but mainly NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL and soccer. Eternal optimistic who, for unknown reasons, chose to root for the Chicago Cubs and Jacksonville Jaguars. Born and raised in Chile.
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