The grind of the season rolls on Tuesday with 10 games being featured in FanDuel's main contests Tuesday, with first pitch at a 7:10 p.m. EDT. Four listed arms are priced in five figures, though that could be cut in half as rain is a major concern in New York for Chris Sale, and Justin Wrobleski isn't confirmed as of this writing. Seven additional arms are priced at $9,000 or greater, giving us decent depth. We don't yet know the Reds' plans for this slate in a day/night doubleheader spot.
The Padres (-188) and Dodgers (-190) lead the way as favorites. Five games have run totals of at least 9.0 while Brewers-Dodgers and Atlanta-Mets sit at a slate-low 7.5 runs. As noted above, rain is a big concern in New York, so much so we'll assume they don't play for this column's sake. Wind could be a factor in Cincinnati, San Francisco and Chicago, the latter of which looks stout, but we'll need to confirm direction before fully targeting.
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Pitching
Taj Bradley, MIN vs. KC ($9,900): There are ample warts with the arms above Bradley. Sale likely doesn't play, Gavin Williams is in Great American Ball Park with wind (though the Reds have the league's worst offense against righties), Wrobleski isn't confirmed, and while I like Gerrit Cole, wind is a concern. Bradley lands here almost by default. The right-hander does have merit, turning in four quality starts in his last six, and he continues to miss bats. Kansas City is a lineup we just don't fear. Their 21.5 percent K rate isn't elite, but neither is the 96 wRC+ or the 3.8 run expectancy. Bradley works for both cash and GPP formats.
Logan Henderson, MIL at SF ($9,000): When in doubt, trust a Brewers starter. Henderson hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his eight starts and has an obscene 31.8 percent K percentage. He is a flyball pitcher (45.7 percent) which is a mild concern with any outbound wind around the bay, but San Francisco has just a 3.3 run expectancy and Milwaukee is heavily favored (-148). He'll lack innings upside, but can still return a ceiling for a slate where arms drop off dramatically. He'll come far less rostered than San Diego's Michael King at $9,100.
Colin Rea, CHC at STL ($7,200): Do I think you should use Rea? No, not at all. Can you use Rea? Perhaps. He's earned at least 18.0 FDP in each of his last six starts, twice reaching 30 or better, so there is some potential. St. Louis has a 95 wRC+ and .308 wOBA off righties, and in 65 plate appearances across their lineup, current Cardinals are hitting .119 with a .353 OPS. The pay-down options Tuesday are very limited.
Top Targets
Sutter Health Park is on the docket, and Gage Jump is getting hammered there by righties to the tune of a .409 wOBA and .963 OPS. Willson Contreras ($3,600) is an obvious starter and makes for a nice mini-stack with Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,000), who's homered in three of his last six.
Another appealing mini-stack comes from a usual target in the Dodgers. Luis Castillo has pitched better of late but has allowed five homers in his last two starts and is surrendering a .382 wOBA to lefties on the road, by far his most targetable split. Shohei Ohtani ($4,100) is 4-for-11 with a homer and two doubles off Castillo, while Freddie Freeman ($3,400) is 4-for-9 and is hitting .412 over his last nine.
Bargain Bats
The Padres will be a popular stack against Michael Lorenzen. The Colorado starter's season-long issues against lefties (.437 wOBA, 1.012 OPS on the road) opens up plenty of choices. Jackson Merrill ($3,200) is on the high side of a "bargain", but he's scorching with nine hits and three homers across his last 21 plate appearances. Jake Cronenworth ($2,500) is a nice punt play at the keystone, and is hitting .400 over his last six. Luis Rengifo ($2,600) is 4-for-11 with two homers off Lorenzen, has three-position eligibility and is hitting .464 over his last eight.
It's not a fair sample, but Kody Clemens ($3,100) is 4-for-6 with three homers off Seth Lugo. In similar vein, Chicago's Michael Busch ($3,100) has homered twice in eight ABs against Michael McGreevy.
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Stack to Consider
Yankees at Anthony Kay (White Sox): Paul Goldschmidt ($3,000), Jasson Dominguez ($2,900), Amed Rosario ($2,500)
We've noted a solid handful of mini-stacks throughout the column, and going full bore on the Yankees at a discount is how you afford the bigger names. Their lineup is hamstrung by injury, but put up nine runs last night against a lefty, and will get a chance to repeat here. Goldschmidt and Dominguez are locks to be at the top of the order. The former leads the team with a .452 wOBA, 197 wRC+ and .310 ISO against lefties, while the latter should hit cleanup and has six hits and four runs over his last six. The third piece is a bit TBD, as Max Schuemann ($2,500) led off (unsuccessfully) last night. He's in play if he does so again, but I'd prefer Rosario if he's in the top three of the lineup.
