This is one of the most fascinating weeks of the season. The trade deadline is exactly a week from today, and there should be a ton of movement across MLB. Hopefully it won't affect any DFS slates too badly. In any case, let's get started with one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game.
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Pitching
Chase Burns, CIN vs. CLE ($11,300)
Burns was just rewarded with a contract extension, but Cincy might've gotten the better end of that deal with how studly Burns has looked. This hard-throwing righty has broken out with a 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.4 K/9 rate en route to a 12-1 record. Those are absurd averages, especially since he has at least 15 DraftKings points in 17 of 19 starts this season. The matchup with Cleveland might be the best part of this because the Guardians rank bottom three in runs scored, OPS and xwOBA, with Burns entering this matchup as a -180 favorite!
Tatsuya Imai, HOU at LAA ($6,800)
Imai's season-long numbers are nothing special, but this guy has the talent to be a stud. Despite getting off to a slow start, Imai has a 4.30 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 rate across his last five starts. He's also scored at least 27 DraftKings points in three of those and has the strikeout stuff to be a stud. Those elite strikeout numbers become even more intriguing in a matchup like this because the Angels have the worst K rate in baseball for the second straight year. Not to mention, Imai's ERA is 2.25 runs lower on the road than at home this year.
Top Targets
Jordan Walker, STL (vs. David Peterson) $5,800
Walker put on a show in the Home Run Derby, but he's been doing that all year in St. Louis. This post-hype breakout has a .286 AVG and .856 OPS in a career year. That's the stud everyone was waiting to see when he was called up a few years ago, and we certainly don't want to fade him against a subpar southpaw. We'll talk about Peterson in the stacks section, but Walker also has a .383 OBP and .917 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor.
Seiya Suzuki, CHC (vs. Matthew Liberatore) $4,800
Suzuki's season has been all over the map, but this is the perfect spot to use him. The first variable is his recent form, with Suzuki sporting a .409 OBP and 1.045 OPS across his last 14 fixtures. That sort of run makes him an easy option against a guy like Liberatore, with the lefty posting a 5.18 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The most impactful variable might be Suzuki's superb splits, providing a .416 OBP and .987 OPS against southpaws this season.
Bargain Bats
Rafael Devers, SF (vs. Brandon Sproat) $4,100
Devers had a disastrous start in his San Fran tenure, but a hot stretch was always inevitable. We say that because we're talking about a perennial All-Star who hasn't had an OPS below .850 in five straight seasons. It appeared that streak was over two months ago, but Devers has a .346 OBP and .924 OPS since May 5. He's also got a .392 OBP and 1.067 OPS over the last month. We didn't even mention that Devers has a .380 OBP and .937 OPS against righties over the last three years while facing one with a 5.09 ERA.
Paul Goldschmidt, NYY (vs. Noah Schultz) $3,700
Goldy has been mired in a slump over the last month, but he's the projected leadoff hitter against a lefty here. It's easy to see why because Goldschmidt has generated a .417 OBP and 1.066 OPS against left-handers this year. Those are unbelievable splits, and he still has a .272 AVG and .828 OPS since May 6 despite struggling recently. We can't overlook that since he's sitting below $4,000 while facing a rookie who has a 6.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
Stacks to Consider
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs (Peterson): Walker ($5,800), JJ Wetherholt ($5,300), Ivan Herrera ($4,200), Nelson Velazquez ($3,000)
The Cubs took a risk on Peterson when they traded for him, and it simply hasn't paid off. This lefty had a 2.90 ERA two years ago but has a 5.97 ERA and 1.56 WHIP this season. The 2.90 ERA appears to be the outlier because Peterson has a 4.35 career ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
We already discussed Walker, but Wetherholt is a great option as the leadoff hitter for St. Louis. This rookie shortstop is averaging 8.0 DK points per game and has similar splits against both sides. Herrera has the platoon advantage from the right side, posting a .408 OBP and .892 OPS against lefties throughout his career. Velazquez is the cheap piece of the stack, posting an .815 OPS against southpaws.
Boston Red Sox at Athletics (Jack Perkins): Willson Contreras ($5,500), Wilyer Abreu ($4,800), Jarren Duran ($3,800), Caleb Durbin ($3,400)
Perkins is a talented pitcher, but we don't trust anyone in Sacramento. That's become one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball, with the Red Sox projected to score over five runs in this game. That's no surprise since they have a 22-4 record over the last month, with Perkins providing a 6.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this year.
Contreras has been the catalyst of this ridiculous run for the Red Sox, averaging 8.9 DK points per game this year. Abreu hits from the left side while amassing a .782 career OPS. Duran has struggled, but he scored 20 DraftKings points on Sunday and has All-Star abilities. Durbin is the final piece of the stack, generating a .392 OBP and .935 OPS across his last 33 fixtures.
