MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, September 21
Baseball begins the final week of the regular season with a small three-game slate. Four of the six teams in action have been eliminated from the playoffs. Although there won't be a ton of action, here are two wagers that could still prove to be profitable.
Mike Barner's season record: 89-58-1 (+17.20 units)
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MLB Picks Today: Expert Betting Tips and Analysis
Washington Nationals 
at Detroit Tigers 
Betting Picks
- Nationals team total 3.5 runs: Over (-120) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
The Nationals have a plus-12 run differential despite being 10 games under .500. They are one of only two teams in baseball that has a positive run differential and a losing record. Their pitching staff has been awful, recording a 4.76 xERA and a 1.38 WHIP. However, their lineup has produced the third-most runs in baseball. They haven't slowed down as the end of the season nears, scoring at least four runs in six of their last eight games.
Starting this game for the Tigers will be River Ryan, who will make his debut with the team after being acquired in the Tarik Skubal deal with the Dodgers. It should be a brief outing for Ryan, who recently missed close to three months with a hamstring injury. He did not last more than 2.2 innings in either of his minor league starts since making his return, so this should be a short outing for him. Expected to follow him will be Keider Montero, who has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over his last nine appearances. The Nationals will have a guaranteed nine innings to hit with this game being on the road, putting them in a favorable position to score at least four runs.
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San Francisco Giants 
vs. Minnesota Twins 
Betting Picks
- Both teams to score 3+ runs (-110) at DraftKings for 1 Unit
The Giants haven't been great at the plate. They are tied for the seventh-fewest runs scored, and their .706 OPS at home isn't helping matters. They were just held to seven total runs across three games against the Dodgers, but this is a more favorable series for their bats.
The Twins have a 4.29 xERA and a 1.37 WHIP as a team. Their starter will be Zebby Matthews, who has an underwhelming 4.47 xERA and 1.24 WHIP. His strikeout rate is a career-low 20.5 percent, which has contributed to him giving up 1.7 HR/9. Behind him is a disastrous bullpen that has a 4.83 ERA and 1.50 WHIP for the season. Even if Matthews pitches well, the Giants could score three runs against the Twins' bullpen alone.
The Twins have been more productive at the plate, ranking 10th in runs scored. They will take their hacks against Blade Tidwell, who has a 4.56 ERA with the Giants that is backed by a 4.50 xERA. Over 72 innings at Triple-A, he posted a 4.41 xERA. Like the Twins, the Giants have a terrible bullpen. The unit has a 4.21 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. That leaves the Twins with a great opportunity to also score at least three runs.
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MLB Picks Recap
- Nationals team total 3.5 runs: Over (-120 DraftKings)
- Giants vs. Twins: Both teams to score 3+ runs (-110 DraftKings)
All Plays - 1 Unit
