MLB Picks: Betting Picks for Saturday, October 3

MLB Betting Expert Daniel E. Dobish offers picks and predictions for the two evening series openers in the divisional round of the playoffs on Saturday night.

October 3, 2026

MLB Picks: Betting Picks for Saturday, October 3

By:

Daniel Dobish

October 3, 2026

MLB Picks

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MLB Picks Today: Expert Picks for
Saturday, October 3

We're on to the divisional series in the 2026 Major League Baseball (MLB) playoffs, with eight teams remaining. We're focused on the evening slate, as the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet at 6:30 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg, while the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers square off at American Family Field in Cream City.

In last Saturday's column, we wrapped up the regular season with another 3-1 (75.0%, +200) day, going 12-4 (75.0%, +737) across the final four columns. That's 41-18-1 (69.5%, +2,180) in the past 15 columns. Let's keep it cooking, building that bankroll for the MLB playoffs and World Series.

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Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees: Expert Betting Tips and Analysis

The Rays host the Yankees for Game 1 of the ALDS at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla. at 6:30 p.m. ET.

The Rays won the American League East Division with 98 wins, including seven victories in 13 tries against the Yankees in the regular season. After a three-game sweep at The Trop April 10-12, New York actually had a slight 6-4 advantage across the past 10 matchups. The Over is 5-2 across the past seven meetings in this series, too.

Tampa Bay turns to RHP Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), while New York goes with RHP Gerrit Cole (10-9, 3.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) for Game 1.

Cole has managed an 11-6 record, 2.77 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 133.1 IP in 22 career postseason starts. He was actually better on the road this season, posting a 3.41 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 12 starts.

Rasmussen doesn't have anywhere near the same postseason experience, going 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across 4.2 IP career playoff innings in one start and two relief appearances.

Rasmussen has dominated Ben Rice in their brief dealings, as the slugger is 1 for 16 (.063) with a homer, two RBI and seven strikeouts. If you're looking for a hero, it might be Trent Grisham, who is 6 for 16 (.375) with a homer and three RBI against the Tampa Bay righty.

As far as Cole is concerned, Yandy Diaz is an impressive 17 for 57 (.298) with three doubles, two homers and six RBI in a rather extensive history. Junior Caminero, though, is hitless in seven at-bats with a walk and a strikeout. Taylor Walls is hitless in 11 at-bats with four walks and five strikeouts against Cole, too.

We'll side with Cole, especially as a slight underdog, banking on his playoff experience, and let's go high on the runs based on the recent total trends.

MLB Best Bets for Rays at Yankees:

Yankees ML (+115 Bet365, BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbooks)
Over 6.5 Runs (-130 at Hard Rock Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Saturday Night Baseball Insights

The Padres made quick work of the Chicago Cubs in the wild-card round, sweeping a pair of games. Now, San Diego sets its sights on another National League Central power, the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Brewers.

These teams met six times in the regular season, with Milwaukee winning two of three games at AFF in Wisconsin, while the Padres swept a three-game set at Petco Park Aug. 10-12, while the Under and Over alternated in each of the six games.

LHP Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) takes the ball for the Padres, and he is looking to turn things around in the postseason. He is 0-3 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across two starts and six appearances in the playoffs with the Arizona Diamondbacks, Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners. He hasn't appeared in the postseason since 2022 with the Mariners, when he made his last start.

RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) works for the Brewers, and he is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.83 in three playoff games, too, over his career.

Milwaukee should be able to get the job done, but there's something to be said for rest vs. momentum. The Brewers have been off since Sunday, while the Padres have a boost of confidence after sweeping the Cubs, keeping the bats hot. But, Chicago didn't have a dude slinging 103+ mph, either.

We'll take the Brewers to get the job done on the run line, based on Ray's postseason struggles, and we'll go low on the total, looking for a 4-1 type of game.