Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, August 27
MLB 2026 betting record: 34-46-1, -13.25 units
It's a quiet day of baseball before the last weekend of the month, with seven MLB games scheduled for Thursday, Aug. 27.
I have betting picks on three of them and four predictions in total, including three MLB player prop recommendations.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Toronto Blue Jays Predictions and Best Bets
- Blue Jays Moneyline (-102 FanDuel)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 13.5 outs (-135 DraftKings)
The Blue Jays are getting pretty close to must-win territory. They enter three games back of the American League's third wild-card spot and are bunched up alongside several other clubs with 28 to go. Noah Cameron isn't an easy assignment, and the Royals have been hitting the ball better than Toronto — which isn't saying much — but this is a game the Jays need to win. At basically a pick'em price against a last-place team, the Blue Jays are worth backing as far as I'm concerned.
Toronto got 61 pitches out of Arrighetti in his last start (his first with the club) and it will need that and more after using seven relievers, including several high-leverage arms, in Wednesday's bullpen game. Tyler Rogers and Mason Fluharty have both pitched in consecutive days and Spencer Miles threw 33 pitches as the opener last night, so there are definite availability concerns here.
Arrighetti threw better than his line in his Jays debut, generating four strikeouts over 3.1 innings at Yankee Stadium. He got tagged for a two-run shot, but kept Toronto in the game. His strikeout stuff might not play vs. the Royals (sixth-lowest K rate in MLB), but that could help keep his pitch count in check and allow him to work deeper. The matchup itself isn't bad, either, as Kansas City has an OPS more than 100 points lower on the road. The Royals have not been a good offensive team outside of hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium, ranking 29th in on-base percentage on the road and 28th in wRC+.
With no off day ahead of a crucial weekend series vs. the Seattle Mariners, I expect the Jays to push Arrighetti as far as he can go before bridging the gap to lights-out closer Louis Varland. While Cameron (1.06 ERA in his last six starts) gives the Royals a starting pitching advantage against Toronto's weak-hitting lineup, the Blue Jays' bullpen is far superior, and manager John Schneider has not been afraid to deploy Varland for more than one inning, which could truly shorten this game.
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Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Predictions and Best Bets
- Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 strikeouts (+120 BetRivers)
The Yankees have the highest strikeout rate in baseball in the second half. In fact, they have the highest K% in MLB going back to the start of June, when Aaron Judge got injured. They have been a below-average offense without their perennial MVP candidate and have been brutal in the second half (28th in wRC+), giving Wesneski a good opportunity to turn in a solid showing tonight.
Taking the over on either Wesneski's strikeout or outs prop delivers a price-money price, and I believe both are viable options. I'm electing for the strikeout play because of New York's alarming swing-and-miss rate and Wesneski's ability to produce whiffs.
Wesneski amasses whiffs at an above-average clip and has been league average at generating strikeouts over parts of five MLB seasons. He's only cleared this line once in five starts, but racked up exactly four strikeouts in every other outing. In other words, he's been living around this number ahead of a plus matchup.
Excluding openers, 13 of the last 15 starting pitchers that the Yankees have faced have cleared this line.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Predictions and Best Bets
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetMGM)
The forecast in New York is calling for potential rain, but wind is expected to be blowing out at Citi Field, making Chourio a target for me against a fly-ball pitcher who gives up bombs.
Mets starter Sean Manaea has a top-10 home run/fly ball rate over the last two seasons (minimum 150 innings pitched) and has not been effective against right-handed batters over that stretch. Right-handed hitters have posted an .837 OPS against him this year (nearly 150 points higher than his mark vs. LHBs), and they slugged .514 off him in 2025. The OPS difference that year was nearly 200 points.
Chourio is a career .298 hitter with an .829 OPS vs. lefties. He punished southpaws a season ago and has been strong vs. them again this year. Despite a recent slump, he has swung the bat well this month, slashing .287/.380/.460 in August.
MLB Picks Recap
- Blue Jays Moneyline (-102 FanDuel)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 13.5 outs (-135 DraftKings)
- Hayden Wesneski Over 4.5 strikeouts (+120 BetRivers)
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetMGM)
