Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, Oct. 1
MLB 2026 betting record: 46-54-1, -8.97 units
The lone wild-card series to go the distance wraps up Thursday night at Truist Park, and it's close to a pick 'em at most sportsbooks.
I like the road Philadelphia Phillies to advance past the Atlanta Braves, and I have a player prop prediction as part of my top MLB bets for Game 3.
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Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
Pick #1: Phillies Moneyline (-105 BetRivers)
Aaron Nola is getting the ball for the Phillies in tonight's do-or-die wild-card game, while the Braves are deploying lefty opener Ray Kerr to attack left-handed hitting sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper out of the gate. How long Kerr lasts remains to be seen, but there's plenty of speculation that righty Grant Holmes will serve in a bulk-innings role.
Holmes faced the Phillies four times this season and held his own, pitching to a 3.05 ERA across 20.2 innings, but the strikeout numbers were subpar and the walks were up, which was a theme of his this season. The right-hander's K rate plummeted seven percent from a season ago to a career-worst mark, while he walked batters at an above-average clip and continued to give up homers at a healthy rate.
Solid run prevention over the last two months lowered Holmes' ERA to 3.44, though his expected ERA finished above 5.00. The gap between his actual ERA and FIP was the largest among 109 pitchers who threw at least 120 innings.
While Holmes is unlikely to last long — both teams should be aggressive with their bullpens — he'll be susceptible to a big inning while he's out there. The Phillies have drawn two walks this series, but were top five in the second half and have some well-known power threats to capitalize with runners on base.
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Nola, meanwhile, had a much better ERA in the second half (3.33 compared to 5.75) thanks to a much-improved strand rate, but some of his other metrics weren't as sparkling. That said, he pitched well against the Braves twice in September and will probably be asked to go through Atlanta's potent lineup twice at maximum. By all accounts, he's trying to hand the ball to Zack Wheeler, who last pitched Sunday's season finale to help clinch the Phillies' postseason berth, in good shape.
On paper, the Phillies look stronger to start the game and they also have the advantage later on thanks to the three strong relief innings they got out of Andrew Painter yesterday, which kept the bullpen fresh.
Alex McFarlane is the only Philadelphia pitcher to throw both games of this series, and he's thrown 20 pitches total (four yesterday). That could be enough to keep the hard-throwing rookie down, but Atlanta is in worse shape. Closer Raisel Iglesias, as well as Didier Fuentes (33 pitches) and Dylan Lee (31 pitches and two massive homers allowed in Game 2), have all pitched back-to-back days. They are the top three highest-leverage arms in Atlanta's bullpen. Not one of them has thrown three consecutive days this season.
Unlike Philadelphia, there's likely no scenario where Atlanta turns to its ace, either. Chris Sale threw 6.1 innings and 95 pitches in Tuesday's series opener.
Anything can happen in a winner-take-all game, and the division-champion Braves have been the better team. But I see a pitching edge for the Phillies tonight, and that makes them my preferred moneyline play.
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Pick #2: Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 FanDuel)
Hitting behind Schwarber and Harper gives Bohm a real shot at enjoying a platoon advantage in several at-bats tonight, assuming the Braves turn to another southpaw later in the game to match up against the two sluggers.
That's good news for Bohm, who hit .292/.333/.483 vs. southpaws this season. His .816 OPS against lefties was considerably better than his .643 mark vs. righties. For his career, the difference is just as stark (.853 vs .687). Bohm collected two hits yesterday, including a big homer, and tagged Sale for an RBI double in Game 1.
There's no guarantee he gets multiple lefties tonight, but his lack of swing and miss and good walk rate should serve him well vs. Holmes and others, too. Bohm had one of the lowest K rates in the second half to go along with a 118 wRC+ (it was 71 in the first half) and above-average walk rate. Since the start of August, in his final 50 regular-season games, he hit .305 with a .383 on-base percentage, which fueled his .807 OPS.
With the way Bohm has been swinging it and getting on base, hitting cleanup behind Philadelphia's two best hitters and leadoff man Trea Turner is a great spot to be.
MLB Picks Recap
- Phillies to win (-105 BetRivers)
- Alec Bohm Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-110 FanDuel)
